STORM2K

EDIT I meant early Wednesday morning for arrival of polar front across North Florida in my posts from the previous page. My blurry eyes early this morning deceived me after analyzing the model runs

Waiting to see if the magic zapper gets our front south of the lake? Probably just a few drops to dirty my car for SFL

We haven’t had rain down here of any consequence since September so the front will get zapped up by Lake O

Numerous Severe Wind & Damage Reports Across Tampa Bay:
I definitely had the strongest winds here in St. Pete Since Hurricane Irma.


66 MPH Clearwater Pier
66 MPH in Sarasota
59 MPH Clearwater Weather Station
54 MPH St. Petersburg
70 MPH Citrus County
45-50 MPH Southern Pinellas
50 mph skyway pier
50 mph Lakeland
Lots of 45 to 55 mph along the east coast of central Florida

Down Trees In Areas with gusts to 60 to 70 mph estimated
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSTampaBay? ... r%5Eauthor

Pretty impressive wind gusts down there from that squall line last night.

Both the GFS and Euro are pinging arctic apocalypse for the Midwest. Here's to hoping that airmass pivots east and doesn't head this way...

GFS 150 hour 500 mb heights valid 18Z January 30





EURO 144 hour 500 mb heights valid 12Z January 30



The PV anomaly dominant across the Great Lakes region, Midwest and OH Valley on the GFS. EURO is just a little bit farther east with the PV anomaly than the GFS within the same general timeframe, with the PV pivoting toward New England.

12Z Canadian 500 mb heights forecast has the PV anomaly configured north-south through to the TN Valley. This is colder than both the GFS and EURO, if it verified for the Deep South. Temperatures shown on the Canadian to be well down into the teens across the Deep South and 20s into North Florida on next Wednesday morning, if the Canadian verifies.

The general takeaway from the 500 mb analysis above is that the brutal core arctic air should remain well north of Florida, with the Canadian model being the outlier, with just a potion of the PV lobe touch of arctic air toward the Deep South and signaling a hard freeze potential to North Florida by the middle of next week. I am pretty sure most everyone does not want for the Canadian to come anywhere close to verifying (I am assuming of course). I tell you we are tremendously lucky people not having a - NAO around, especially with this pattern, which definitely seemed so favorable to have it come to fruition these past few weeks. Mother Nature never, ever ceases to amaze me.

A high end freeze event carries economic damage potential similar to a hurricane. Let's hope we get a pass. It's likely to be a close shave during the next 10 days or so after which we should be good as a moderating trend takes hold.

Latest guidance has 36 degrees for Jax WFO tomorrow morning and 33 degrees for Saturday morning. A light to calm wind with the HP axis getting closer to the region and and good radiational cooling will give us another good chance for a light freeze and likely frost across inland North Florida for Saturday morning.

Also, measured just over 1.25 inches of rain from last night and early morning rainfall across the Northeast Florida region. I have picked up just under 3 inches of rain just since last Sunday morning. We keep getting these parade of southern stream shortwaves across this region, going all the way back to the beginning of November. It is sure behaving like an El Nino to me, except for everyone down in South Florida unfortunately. Of course, I would love to send much of this rain we keep getting up here down to my neighbors across portions of South Florida where they still need rain.

Hopefully, you all will get some rain down there this weekend as another shortwave / weak Low Pressure area is forecast to impact extreme South Florida going into this weekend and lasting into Monday of next week.

Managed to pick up 1.19 inches from todays front, and 1.14 inches from Sundays front. All that combined with some other minor accumulations has brought our January rainfall totals to 2.82 inches so far.

TheStormExpert wrote:Managed to pick up 1.19 inches from todays front, and 1.14 inches from Sundays front. All that combined with some other minor accumulations has brought our January rainfall totals to 2.82 inches so far.

That is great news! It is about darn time you all down that way finally got in on some decent rainfall! You should get some more decent amounts hopefully over this weekend.

Pretty impressed with this front here in pompano beach rained pretty hard this afternoon with gusty winds. Guess Miami won the zapper award today not much down there

northjaxpro wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:Managed to pick up 1.19 inches from todays front, and 1.14 inches from Sundays front. All that combined with some other minor accumulations has brought our January rainfall totals to 2.82 inches so far.

That is great news! It is about darn time you all down that way finally got in on some decent rainfall! You should get some more decent amounts hopefully over this weekend.

Yep, about dang time! Also there are some indications of potential to receive 2-4 inches on Sunday, I'll be keeping my fingers crossed!
 https://twitter.com/SteveWeagleWPTV/status/1088552203160309765

Nws Miami...no biggie for now

Models show a low pressure system developing and stayingto our south keeping us in the cold sector limiting anythunderstorm potential. Therefore, have left thunder out of theforecast for now.

South Florida is very much in the hunt for consequential QPF even if they are north of convective potential. could be a long soaker down that way..

psyclone wrote:South Florida is very much in the hunt for consequential QPF even if they are north of convective potential. could be a long soaker down that way..

Models have been trending wetter for S FL on Sunday, so that's a good trend to be in right now.
They've been having a hard time the disturbances that will we moving around the PV along the subtropical jet for the next 7-10 days.

Wet weekend ahead for South Florida this weekend and into Monday. Good to see them finally getting substantial rainfall.

A light freeze possible tomorrow morning across North Florida with light wind and radiational cooling.

06Z GFS this morning continues staying consistent, as the model has shown for several days now of post-frontal moisture moving through Northeast Florida early Wednesday morning. 540 partial thickness line is there in place on Wednesday morning. The potential of light flurries could occur here if we are lucky. I will keep a close watch on this going into next week.

A washout this weekend across SFL i would not be suprised if some isolated areas pick 2-4 inches. HRRR is also quite aggressive