STORM2K

TWC has a wide swath of South Florida in the 3-5 inches range. Includes West Palm Beach.

TheStormExpert wrote:TWC has a wide swath of South Florida in the 3-5 inches range. Includes West Palm Beach.

Link?

Most importantly is that the precip looks to likely be pretty widespread for all you guys down in S. Florida. Hopefully, all areas will receive at least an inch or more.

SFLcane wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:TWC has a wide swath of South Florida in the 3-5 inches range. Includes West Palm Beach.

Link?

They showed it on air.

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1088841774590771203

It looks like the odds for significant cold intrusions into Florida are trending lower with time. We're going to be very cool over the next week (certainly averaging out to well below normal) but it doesn't look like a subfreezing blast is on the docket (naturally this is subject to change). Overall things are tilting the right direction and today's CPC outlooks are continuing to trend better as well with the 8-14 day now showing normal temps over Florida and an ever expanding area of above anomalies out west steadily covering more and more of the southern states. Should these trends persist it stands to reason that a milder pattern will be establishing itself sometime in early Feb.

Three runs in a row that the Euro forecasts freezing temps down to the I-4 corridor for Wednesday morning but the GFS does not agree with it.

I always jinx it!

Also(unlike yesterday) it shows another opportunity around the 3ed!

NDG wrote:Three runs in a row that the Euro forecasts freezing temps down to the I-4 corridor for Wednesday morning but the GFS does not agree with it.

https://i.imgur.com/rM0Tbl0.png

Even the NWS: Miami knows to side with the warmer GFS solution.

We are going to be very lucky that the core of this Siberian Arctic airmass will not be visiting us in the FL Peninsula.

Tuesday through Friday...

Record breaking and potentially historic outbreak of cold still
appears to be in the offing for the middle of next week. Greater
than normal degree of forecast uncertainty in temperatures, due in
large part to models showing all time records being broken and in
some cases shattered.

Generally made only very small tweaks to the temperatures from the
model blend, due to the uncertainty. It is worth noting, that this
model blend includes bias-corrected grids which still reflect a
bias correction warmer from the unseasonable warm spell back in
late Dec and early Jan and also contains a MOS component which
tends to have some weighting toward climo, which obviously midweek
temps will not look anything like climo. Typically, in record
breaking temperature situations, a blend of the raw 2m model
temperatures verifies best and those values are colder than our
official forecast and approach or break all time records for ORD
and MDW.

The GFS, GFS-FV3, GEM, and ECMWF 12z operational runs all continue
to drop 850mb temps to below -30C & in the case of the GFS to-
40C. To put this into perspective, using the SPC sounding climo
page, the coldest 850mb temp even observed in IL (ILX, DVN, RAN,
and PIA and dates as far back as 1949) is -32.9C. Over the past
couple days there have been some minor run to run variations in
how low 850mb temps bottom out, but there has been a good deal of
consistency of 850mb at least reach -30C. Even the 51 member ECMWF
ensemble has 850mb temps reaching -30C over northern IL.

Assuming we have a fresh snow pack from Monday`s system, the stage
would be set for temperatures to really get out of hand and end up
colder than currently forecast. Initially, moderate to strong
northwest winds look to send wind chills bottoming out in the -35
to -50F range late Tues night into Wednesday. Some minor
improvement in wind chills is expected Wed night into Thursday
morning, due primarily to diminishing winds. Also worth noting
that the 35 to 50 below wind chills are based on the somewhat
conservative official forecast temps, but should the colder raw 2m
model temps verify we could see wind chills approaching 60 below
in the coldest areas and with most of the CWA reaching close to 50
below.

There is still time for model guidance to back off on the
intensity of Arctic air mass. Keeping that in mind, I felt quite
comfortable with the more conservative temperature forecast. It is
much easier and preferred to slowly trend a forecast closer to
all time records this far out, rather than jumping out forecasting
all time records only to later have to back off on those extremes
if model guidance trends less severe with the cold.

To put this cold into perspective some, during the past 20 years,
Chicago has only had a sub zero high temp twice and only 22 times
in the past 100 years. Our current forecast has air temps below
zero between 40 and 60 hours across most of the CWA, which a much
longer period of sub-zero wind chills.

As others have stated above, thank heaven we're not seeing that incredibly deep troughing all the way into S. Florida as was the case back in December. That would open the flood gates for crazy-cold all the way south into deep into S. Florida. As it stands, it appears that Florida will in fact be spared anything particularly unseasonably cold. Fascinating as the prospect of much colder would have been (to me), I'm just happy to have an excuse to light up my fireplace during a good number of evenings. Partly cloudy, low 90's, and humid will be here soon enough. I for one, am not looking forward to it.

A cirrus cloud canopy came in across the region last night and has remained through the early morning across North Florida. This will save us from reaching a freeze this morning for sure. Temps only in the upper 30s to lower 40s at this early hour.

Significant changes with the forecast the last 18-24 hours as the models all have shifted the moisture axis from south to north up through the peninsula..South Florida will get soaked through the weekend with 2-4 inch rain amounts. Central Florida will see an increase in rain Saturday afternoon into the evening, and North and Northeast Florida tomorrow. A strong upper level shortwave will pivot across North Florida by tomorrow night and early Monday.

A Low Pressure area will develop stronger near the NW Bahamas in response to the upper shortwave moving out of the Gulf of Mexico across the northern peninsula late on Sunday. This will increase the pressure gradient during tomorrow as north to northeast wind will gust to 25 -30 mph at times along the coast area.

Rain amounts models are advertising here in Jax area mostly around 1/2 inch, but some localized amounts of up to an inch could occur. The cool air mass over the peninsula currently, combined with the wet conditions all weekend will really give the entire peninsula a truly raw, nasty feel. We rarely see such cool max temps uniformly like this across the peninsula. Highs only in the 50s across the northern peninsula and even in some portions of the north-central peninsula areas, and the 60s across South Florida.

The upper shortwave moves through by early Monday morning, ending the rain across the peninsula as High Pressure builds in briefly ahead of the next front approaching on Tuesday night..

There is still a big question as to if the moisture will hang around long enough across extreme North and Northeast Florida as the polar frontal boundary moves through early Wednesday. It always comes down to this down here
always in these type of situations. Well, the thermal profiles looking at this morning's 06Z GFS run are supportive of flurries, IF, and only if, the moisture will be there early Wednesday morning. I am watching that with curiosity of course.

Otherwise, colder temps for Wednesday through Friday of this upcoming week as a strong Arctic High (1040mb forecasted in 96 hours) builds down from the Northern Plains and shifts slowly east, (not south), which is the critical aspect in this instance. We will likely see a freeze period on Thursday morning across the northern peninsula. However, as have been referenced, I tell you we here in the peninsula are extremely lucky to be avoiding the negative NAO during the heart of winter. We have not had an major impact from a negative NAO during winter here since 2010. It is among the most amazing things I have seen in weather in all seriousness.

Once again, we will dodge a MAJOR bullet with regards to the mind- boggling, brutal core cold they are seeing currently up across the Great Lakes region with the PV anomaly. This in all likelihood will be staying away from us. We would had seen unbelievable potential cold temp records across the region, if that brutal cold had ocome our way.

The models screw up big time in their short to med range forecast, now it looks like Miami-Dade, where the most rain is needed, is going to end up with only around an inch of rain, while us here in the Orlando could end up with close to 2" of rain when just a couple of days ago the forecast was calling for only light sprinkles at best.
The Pro-Bowl tomorrow is going to be a very wet game.
The Euro is starting back off a little on freezing temps Wednesday morning across the I-4 corridor, the GFS continues to be persistent of no freeze but is trending colder towards the Euro.
At least mid 30s across the I-4 corridor looks to be very likely with the colder spots away from the Urban areas deeping down to freezing for a short period of time.

Yeah, you may be right NDG. The heavier rain amounts indeed could shift more across the Central peninsula. I hope that does not happen as Southeast Florida really needs that significant potential rain over them to relieve those drought concerns down there.

NDG wrote::uarrow: The models screw up big time in their short to med range forecast, now it looks like Miami-Dade, where the most rain is needed, is going to end up with only around an inch of rain, while us here in the Orlando could end up with close to 2" of rain when just a couple of days ago the forecast was calling for only light sprinkles at best.
The Pro-Bowl tomorrow is going to be a very wet game.
The Euro is starting back off a little on freezing temps Wednesday morning across the I-4 corridor, the GFS continues to be persistent of no freeze but is trending colder towards the Euro.
At least mid 30s across the I-4 corridor looks to be very likely with the colder spots away from the Urban areas deeping down to freezing for a short period of time.

https://i.imgur.com/qPXCIR8.png

12z run has shifted some again back south.

My forecast high tomorrow is 50 with rain... which is 20 degrees below normal. That is about as miserable as it gets at this latitude. I can't wait for the return of reliably warm shorts and t shirt weather.

12Z GFS and Canadian runs are suggesting colder max temps tomorrow here with temps only in the upper 40s to near 50 as well. Clouds, cool air mass and rain in place and increasing northeast wind gradient certainly will make for a cold, raw day here and also statewide, which I touched on earler in my post from this morning.

It is still preferable to the lasting, damaging impact of a freeze. It's just gonna be a hibernate/comfort food/Netflix kind of day.

psyclone wrote:It is still preferable to the lasting, damaging impact of a freeze. It's just gonna be a hibernate/comfort food/Netflix kind of day.

Yes indeed. I have a movie date tomorrow and it should be just the perfect type of day of doing the movies for sure!