Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Isolated lightnings making their apparition in my area. Strong showers continue in my locality, Wind is very calm. Not much change since 4 hours.

[Gustywind]

Some news in Guadeloupe.


TRAFFIC. Rupture of a pipeline and large geiser on the edge of Petit-Bourg national
B.C. franceantilles.fr 30.04.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 215551.php

The rain was not responsible for all of the floods recorded in the day of Tuesday. Other related incidents came to bring their little grain of salt and complicate a little difficult over a situation already. Among them: the rupture, in the area of the beach Viard, a big pipeline operated by the Nantaise des Eaux, just before 5 p.m., which has generated an impressive geiser several metres of road. It took little more than water submerged much of the national road connecting Basse-Terre in Pointe-à-Pitre. Despite operations of markup, on the road and some major repair work on faulty conduct slowdowns quickly formed...

[cycloneye]

Rainy days ahead for Eastern Caribbean islands

Good morning. A very rainy pattern will unfold starting today and lasting thru early next week for the Eastern Caribbean islands. Stay tuned for more information as time goes by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS LARGELY
UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
STRONGLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE JET STREAM
ARCHES TO THE NORTH. FLEETING AREAS OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 6 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE AREA.
RIDGING REPLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AFTER TUESDAY. MID
LEVELS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY AND INCREASES AREA-WIDE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE GFS IS BEST ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AND BRING UP MUCH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW DOES NOT RETURN
TO NORMAL UNTIL VERY LATE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL ENHANCE TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF
PUERTO RICO. NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ALTHOUGH SAINT CROIX DID PRODUCE A STREAMER WITH A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS MORE THAN 100 MILES LONG. SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
PUERTO RICO EXCEEDED ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT WITH QUITE THE
SAME INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE BECOME MOSTLY EASTERLY
WHILE WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST SO THE EXACT
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. SPECIFICALLY THIS COULD MEAN HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER SAN JUAN AND MORE ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THE
EVENING AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES AND BETTER DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND EVERY DAY THIS WEEK UNTIL TUESDAY
WITH ONLY ONE INTERRUPTION NOTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL VENTILATED BY THE JET STREAM THAT
REMAINS CLOSE OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND AIDED BY THE FLEETING
AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT OFTEN CORRESPOND TO THE BEST
HEATING AT THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING WINDS
TODAY WITH A MORE CONTINUOUS CHANGE ON SUBSEQUENT SOUNDINGS AND
INDEED AFTERNOON BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS REMAIN BELOW 120 AND GO
AS LOW AS 14 SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGEST THAT
UPDRAFTS CAN BE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. ALSO SOUNDINGS BECOME
MORE AND MORE SATURATED AS THEY GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY WHEN THE
BEST MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THEY DID PEAK TO 2 INCHES
OVER BAYAMON WHEN CONVECTION BEGAN PUSHING MOISTURE HIGHER INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LED TO MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 48 MM MOVING OVER SAINT CROIX THIS MORNING
AND POSSIBLY PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER TO CONFIRM THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.

FORECASTS ARE CONTINUING TO SET THE AREA UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION SINCE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ADD TO THE SATURATION OF SOILS AND RIVER
RUN-OFF EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WEEKEND AT THE
LATEST. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO POSTPONE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EACH
DAY...AND 5 DAY TOTALS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 12 TO 16 INCH
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS OF PUERTO RICO WITH
AT LEAST 4 INCHES DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EMERGENCY AND WATER MANAGERS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT MOSTLY VFR. BUT OCNL MVFR/ISOLD IFR BY AFT 01/16Z AT
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE ISOLD/SCT
MVFR IN SHRA. LLVL WINDS E-ESE 6-14 KT BLO FL050 VEERING TO WEST ABV
AND INCR WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
INCLEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL TUESDAY WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 76 / 60 40 60 20
STT 84 74 84 77 / 30 40 50 50

[Gustywind]

Latest on Guadeloupe. Orange maintained.


The time for the next hours on Guadeloupe

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.mp3

Wednesday, may 01, 2013

Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!
At 0630 AM, the level of vigilance is: Orange for heavy rains/storms, be very careful!

Currently, the gloomy weather persists on the entire island. Showers are becoming more rare. The wind is calm.
For the next 3 hours, little change to wait. The sky remains loaded. Showers are weak and short-lived, even if locally they may be supported. l
These observations and their immediate evolution will be handed over to day around 09:30.

[Gustywind]

Martinica is now on orange alert as strong showers are back.

Time for the next hours on Martinique

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_mart.php

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

Weather France Martinique, Hello.

At 0530AM the level of vigilance is orange for our Department due to heavy rain.

The rains began about 2AM this morning. They concern primarily the centre and northeast of the island. The locality of Saint Pierre offers best conditions.

The wind is blowing weakly between 5 and 25 km/h on average.

Next newsletter at 0830 AM

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 1 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Here is the GEM model that shows a good deal of precipitation for the next few days in the NE Caribbean islands.

[Gustywind]

Here is the GEM model that shows a good deal of precipitation for the next few days in the NE Caribbean islands.

Thanks for posting that Cycloneye Waouw, there's plenty moisture! Let's see what happens during the next days.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WCNTRL ATLC THRU SUN.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE DRAWN
NWWD INTO FAR ERN PR...USVI AND BVI OVERNIGHT AND THU AS TROUGH
ACROSS THE ATLC DEEPENS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TOMORROW TO SEE A SIG
CHANGE IN STEERING WINDS FROM WSW TO ENE AFFECTING NORTHEAST PR
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING VIEQUES...AND THE USVI
ESPECIALLY ST. CROIX.

WEEKEND FCST...OVERALL WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE MAINLY ACROSS
NCNTRL AND NE PR UNDER A BROAD TROF PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. BY TUE...MODELS SHOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH
SIG DRYING. SO DONT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVR MAINLAND PR TONIGHT BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH 3-5
FT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 76 84 / 50 70 10 70
STT 74 84 77 81 / 50 100 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The rainy days start today as a trough moves nearby the islands causing scattered showers and thunderstorms that may cause flash flooding. This weather is forecast to last until early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST THU MAY 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
STREAM IS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE JET STREAM WILL
CONSOLIDATE NORTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BUT FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL.

AT MID LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN A LARGER LOW PRESSURE POOL WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN BY TUESDAY A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO AND
NORTH NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS IS BEST OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST BUT RETURNS OVER PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MORE VIGOROUSLY THEN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODEST EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES VERY LIGHT ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF MOISTURE
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN A BAND RETURNS
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW PRESSURE
GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A
LONG RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS BECAME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES MOVING ACROSS
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO...FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 MB BECOMES SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRESENT SOME DRYING AND IMPEDE
THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A WHILE ESPECIALLY
NEAR SAN JUAN...BUT EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO WIN OVER AND SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DID NOT
DEEPEN THE MOISTURE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED FOR TODAY SO AREAS AROUND
THE FRINGE OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT LESS
THAN THOSE IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...UP TO 700 MB...MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN
BANDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL
TUESDAY. BRINGING HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE
EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. BY SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS ALL NIGHT AND WILL DAMPEN THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNINGS...QUITE THE
OPPOSITE OF NORMAL FLOW HERE. CAPE WILL BE BEST TODAY AND TOMORROW
BUT WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 1800 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT SUNDAY AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
SLOW MOVING PRODUCING COPIOUS RAIN AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY UNTIL THEN. THE WETTEST WEATHER SHOULD SEE ITS LAST HURRAH
ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU MORNING EXCEPT OCNL MVFR IN SHRA AT TNCM/TKPK AND
PSBL AT TISX/TIST. MOISTURE WL SPREAD WESTWARD FM LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS E AND N PR. SCT MVFR/ISOLD IFR DURING
SHRA IN AFT AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK WITH WIDESPREAD MTN OBSC.
MAY ADJUST THESE TAFS FOR TEMPO PDS. LLVL WIND BLO FL050 S-SE 5-12
KT VEERING TO SW AND INCRG ABV.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 76 / 40 10 70 0
STT 84 75 85 79 / 30 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 2 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:  Becoming cloudy with scattered showers over sections of most parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe is always on orange alert for a risk of strong showers an tstorms while Martinica has back of the orange alert to yellow alert.

[Gustywind]

Minor damages due to the persisting bad weather on Guadeloupe.

INFORMATION PRACTICES. Weather cause water cuts
franceantilles.fr 02.05.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 215739.php

The localities of Capesterre-Belle-Eau, Goyave, Petit-Bourg, Gosier, Sainte-Anne, and the Union of North Grande Terre and the high points of the Grand Fonds Abymes including the area of Goulin Papin are deprived of water following the bad weather of the recent days.


Following heavy weather in recent days, the distribution of drinking water is disturbed or interrupted, this Thursday, in the municipalities of Capesterre-Belle-Eau, Goyave, Petit-Bourg, Gosier, Sainte-Anne, the Union of Northern Grande-Terre, high points of the Grands-Fonds Abymes including Goulin Papi. Generale des Eaux Guadeloupe teams are mobilized on the ground in order to restore the drinking water supply as soon as possible.
Furthermore, in the sector of Anse Marcel, St. Maarten, disturbance or even lack of water be felt due to work on the network until this Sunday.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST THU MAY 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL DOMINATE THRU MON.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DEFINITE DRYER TREND SINCE
YESTERDAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HOWEVER WE ARE STILL NOT OUT
OF THE WOODS EITHER. MODELS NOW SHOW PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE FOR
FRI AND THIS IS EVIDENT ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SO HAVE TO BACK OFF
FROM THE HIGH POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT APPEARS NOW THAT SAT AND SUN WILL
OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME HEAVY RAINS AS A SHEARLINE
DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. STEERING WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH SO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM OVR THE CORDILLERA AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. BY TUE...MODELS SHOW SIG MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN WX CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON WITH THE
RISK OF DAILY AFTERNOON TSTMS ESPECIALLY AT JSJ WHERE STEERING
WINDS ARE FVRBL TO DRIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.
TOMORROW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY INLAND OVR
THE CORDILLERA WITH SLIM CHANCES OF AFFECTING ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT AS NORTHEAST
SWELLS SUBSIDE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A COL REGION. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING FROM TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 76 88 / 0 10 0 70
STT 75 85 79 84 / 10 10 20 20

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe have back off the orange alert to yellow alert. Martinica is now in green code meaning no threat of strong showers and tstorms.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The weekend weather will be dominated by a trough that will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms in PR and adjacent islands.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST FRI MAY 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS
MORNING...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
COMBINATION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL
EFFECT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...AS A VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR TODAY
INDICATED 0-6KM STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 277/ 8KTS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLOW MOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LASTING TO EARLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST
SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST TPW IMAGE FROM CIMMS ARE SHOWING
A SLOT OF DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE...AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT
THE SURFACE...WILL MAINTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER PR
AFTER 03/16Z WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CAUSE VCSH/VCTS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TEMPO WAS LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR
TJSJ DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 15 KTS
SUSTAINED...SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SW WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CROSSWINDS AT THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT TJBQ FROM THE NNW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 75 / 10 0 70 50
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 20 20 50

[Gustywind]

Martinica and Guadeloupe back to green code this morning.

[cycloneye]

That is good news for those islands Gusty.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 3 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:  Becoming cloudy with scattered showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

:uarrow: That is good news for those islands Gusty.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 3 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:  Becoming cloudy with scattered showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


Thanks to you you're 100% right Cycloneye. Whereas, given Meteo-France Guadeloupe looks like tommorow and especially Sunday will see the rain back again... We will see.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI MAY 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST HIGH ZONAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DOMINANT WESTERLIES ALOFT AS UPPER
TROUGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST LEAVING AREA IN A CONVERGENT PATTERN
AND SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS ...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW PREVAILS AS WEAKLY INDUCED TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TROUGH IS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THUS MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VEERING LIGHT LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PASSING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS OF THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
FOR LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SECTIONS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
ARE AND NORTHEASTERN UNDER THE PRESENT STEERING FLOW.

THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
MAY HELP ENHANCE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARDS. ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY AND
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OR POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN/LIFTED NORTHWARDS BY THE PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION UPPER RIDGE IS TO SLIGHTLY
ERODE...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING AMPLIFIED AS IT
REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDE
PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINAL THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN PR
THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...OCNL MVFR ARE PSBL IN AND
AROUND TJSJ THRU 03/21Z DURG SHRA/TSRA. LLVL WIND WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FM THE S-SSW AT LESS THAN 10 KT BLO FL050.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECT SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 75 88 / 0 60 10 60
STT 77 85 77 83 / 0 30 40 60