Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Just speaking about the rain... and a solid shower is spreading over my head since 30 minutes.

[Gustywind]

WEATHER. Back to green for Guadeloupe

franceantilles.fr 03.05.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 215523.php


There are no showers currently over the archipelago. We are entering a quieter period for this day of Friday.
During this episode, there was substantial rollups, including: 200 mm in 12 hours on the relief in the night of Monday to Tuesday. Tuesday more than 90 mm in Capesterre de Marie-Galante in 12 hours. Wednesday, may 1, 100 mm North of St - Rose in 12 hours. On the night of Wednesday to Thursday, 150 mm in 6 hours at la Désirade.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is forecast for PR and adjacent islands as a trough lingers nearby for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST SAT MAY 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE...BRINGS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS RUNNING AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESS...HOWEVER...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL TREND MAINTAINS
BETTER MOISTURE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND...AND IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...BETTER MOISTURE
REACH PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE LONG TERM...FORECAST
WILL REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL 04/15Z ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. AFTER 04/15Z...CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION PRODUCING SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INDUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AFFECTING TJSJ AND TIST. MTN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...MAINLY FROM
THE S-SW WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFFECTING TJSJ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 76 88 75 / 60 10 60 30
STT 85 77 83 77 / 30 40 60 50

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 4 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Afternoon:  Becoming cloudy with scattered showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST SAT MAY 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE LOW LEVELS ...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGED EASTWARD
FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO CREATE DEEP
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIGHT VEERING WINDS AND A FAIRLY MOIST WARM
AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST CONTINUED HIGH ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DOMINANT
WESTERLIES ALOFT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTS A BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND GROUND BASED GPS DATA SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
INCREASING RAPIDLY AND NOW NEAR 1.8 INCHES. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL AND STILL SUGGEST STEADY INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE THE
COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECT WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION OVER LAND TO WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...
WITH GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND WARM WATERS EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY EXPECT CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNDER THE PRESENT STEERING FLOW...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR AND EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
IN URBAN AREAS PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...AS WELL
AS IN SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS. AT THIS TIME...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PREVAILING
EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NE SECTIONS OF PR THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ THRU
04/21Z. LLVL WIND WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FM THE SSW AT 10-20 KT BLO
FL050. STRONG WESTERLIES DOMINATE ABV FL150.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS. HOWEVER...INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 75 88 / 20 60 30 50
STT 77 86 77 84 / 40 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move thru PR and adjacent islands for the next couple of days as a trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SUN MAY 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ONLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
FOR MID NEXT WEEK...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA...INCREASING THE WINDS LOCALLY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. DRIER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATES THE REGION. THEREFORE...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH A DRYING
TREND FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PDS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN -SHRA
MAINLY ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK THRU THE MRNG PD. BY
AFTERNOON..CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 75 88 75 / 50 30 50 10
STT 86 77 84 77 / 20 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 5 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers mainly over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[Gustywind]

Since this morning 6AM Guadeloupe is under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST SUN MAY 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE ON TH UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE
SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE INJECTING A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PER..WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS AND SPREADS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS PERSISTENT FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN HIGH ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAND...THEN
BECOMING MORE FREQUENT OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL MID WEEK
WITH LAYERED PWAT VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES.
THEREAFTER A DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA
AND THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FLYING AREA
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USVI AND THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS
OF PR AS WELL AS THE USVI THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS COULD INDUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND
TISX AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL PREVAIL BELOW 2K FT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLIES ABV 2K FT.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. BUOY 41043 AT 21N-65W
INDICATED 3-4 FT WELL OFF SHORE. THESE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A MODERATE SWELL ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTHEAST. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING FROM ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 88 / 20 50 10 30
STT 77 84 77 86 / 50 50 20 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No change to the pattern of afternoon showers in PR but a change is expected by midweek when high pressure dominates.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST MON MAY 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WITH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. GENERAL COMPUTER MODELS TREND IS THE CONTINUATION
OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...WHICH
WILL BRING A RELIEF TO THE HUMID AND THE WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH
HAS BEEN OCCURRING LAST FEW DAYS. IN THE LONG TERM...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WITH INTERMITTENT VCSH AND -SHRA AT TIST AND TISX. SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06/14Z...EXPECT PDS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR ACROSS THE FLYING AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 5K FEET INTO EARLY
MORNING...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 13 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 75 / 50 10 30 10
STT 86 77 84 77 / 50 20 30 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 6 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 5 knots (6 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[msbee]

heavy thunderstorm here this morning... we received about 1 inch of rain where I live..much needed.
skies are cloudy now.
Local MET forecast says "Mostly cloudy skies and a few isolated showers can be expected across the local area as moisture from the south continues to be pushed over the local area by the southwesterly wind flow."

Guadeloupe MET office has Guadeloupe and French St Martin on yellow alert for strong storms.

[Gustywind]

heavy thunderstorm here this morning... we received about 1 inch of rain where I live..much needed.
skies are cloudy now.
Local MET forecast says "Mostly cloudy skies and a few isolated showers can be expected across the local area as moisture from the south continues to be pushed over the local area by the southwesterly wind flow."

Guadeloupe MET office has Guadeloupe and French St Martin on yellow alert for strong storms.

Glad to see that you have received some welcomed rains! Be aware with the tstorms Msbee. Weather is fair here, i Wonder why we are in yellow alert today. Maybe Meteo-France see what we're not seeing today...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON MAY 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK. DURING THE
WEEKEND SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...FIRST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK
RIDGING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS WEAK
UNTIL TUESDAY AND WANES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT SMALL MODEL
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WET AS GOOD MOISTURE
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH WEAK GRADIENTS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THIS MOISTURE DIMINISHES AND THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST IN THIS LATTER REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE SEA BREEZES SET UP DURING THE EARLY MID
MORNING HOURS AND SHOWERS FORMED FROM HORMIGUEROS TO LUQUILLO.
THESE INTENSIFIED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND BEGAN MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO ENGULF MOST OF THE
AREA ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS WITH AT LEAST
SOME RAINFALL BEFORE SUNSET. AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND ONE AND ONE HALF
INCHES FELL BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2:30 PM BETWEEN NARANJITO AND
FAJARDO. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. ACCORDING TO THE GFS
MODEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON TUESDAY BUT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND RETURNS ON THURSDAY. THE DRIEST DAY APPEARS TO BE ON
THE FOLLOWING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

EXPECT THAT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONFORM TO THESE
FLUCTUATIONS IN MOISTURE BUT ALSO WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE
RETURN TO EASTERLIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BAND OF
MOISTURE THAT BACKS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY IS DEPICTED
AS RETURNING FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND THESE SHOULD BE
THE BEST DAYS FOR SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG HEATING DURING
DRIER DAYS COULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DURING DAYS
IN WHICH MOISTURE IS LESS AND SUNSHINE LASTS LONGER. AS WINDS
BECOME NEARLY EAST...SHOWERS WILL BECOME STRONGER IN THE WEST...
UNLIKE TODAY...AND THE NORTH COAST WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. EASTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS ARE STILL LIKELY TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ON THE WETTEST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...TJSJ...TJNR AND TKPK TAF SITES AND ROUTES BETWEEN THEM WILL
HAVE MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS IN TSRA
TILL ABOUT 06/23Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU 07/15Z. AFT
07/15Z SHRA/TSRA WILL REFORM OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND MOVE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AT THIS TIME...BUT SWELL
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW. WIND
WAVES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT THE MOMENT AND ARE
FAIRLY GENTLE. THEREFORE THEY WILL NOT AFFECT MARITIME OPERATIONS
MUCH BEFORE WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 77 87 / 10 30 10 30
STT 78 85 76 87 / 20 30 10 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another day with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for PR and adjacent islands as a trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST TUE MAY 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC THE REST OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE MINIMAL. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SURROUND THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES. FOR
TODAY...A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...AS BEST MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO AND NEAR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.

SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THETAE VALUES AT
700MB RUNNING AROUND 335-340K. THEREFORE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY...AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE AREA. A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
07/15Z. LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL RETROGRESS TODAY RESULTING IN
SHRA/TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ALL TAF SITES ARE AT RISK EXCEPT ST. KITTS WHERE WEATHER WILL BE
IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 85 76 87 77 / 50 10 20 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 7 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 5 knots (6 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 PM AST TUE MAY 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
JUST TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING WEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW
RETURNS WITH THE JET TO THE NORTH AFTER A WEAK RIDGE PASSES ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE IN
THE WEEK A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS JUST NORTH OF AND
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD AND DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC WHILE SENDING A RIDGE INTO
FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW BACK TO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL OVER PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WAS NOT VISIBLE ON THE AVAILABLE RADAR.
AREAS UNDER REPORTED WERE OROCOVIS AND BARRANQUITAS WHERE VARIOUS
SMALL STREAMS WERE RUNNING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. AT THE TIME OF
WRITING RIO DE LA PLATA AT COMERIO WAS ONE FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WHILE A FEW OTHER RIVERS HAD RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY...INCLUDING RIO
CIBUCO...RIO LIMON AND RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO. FLOODING WAS ALSO
REPORTED ON THE RIO GUATEMALA. A NEW WAVE OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST FROM YABUCOA AND NAGUABO AND WILL ENTER THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN BEFORE 4 PM AST. BEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS OF 3:11 PM WERE 3.18 INCHES AT GUAJATACA AND 3.11
INCHES IN VILLALBA AND 2.05 INCHES IN UTUADO. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO ABATE SOME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER SHOWERS WERE
INDICATED IN THE MODELS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
EXPECTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC AS THIS
BAND OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH.

DRIER AIR WAS MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC IS SAGGING SOUTH AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INTERACTING WITH THE SHORT WAVES
MENTIONED ABOVE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHES OF DRY AIR THEN MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PULSES OF MOISTURE BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT BETTER SHOWERS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST
07/22Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER PR BUT SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD
TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH 07/10Z. EXPECT WORST CONDITIONS NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE INCREASING SLOWLY DUE TO NORTHEAST SWELL. AS
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
THE CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 86 / 50 50 50 50
STT 77 87 77 85 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

Sad news to report from Puerto Rico as two women died after both were swept by a raging river.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 06358.html

[Gustywind]

Sad news to report from Puerto Rico as two women died after both were swept by a raging river.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 06358.html

My condoleances to the family. That's very very sad Cycloneye!

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another day with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for PR and adjacent islands will dominate the weather today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST WED MAY 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TOMORROW AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AND H85
THETAE VALUES DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO COMBINE ONCE AGAIN WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. THESE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL... CENTRAL INTERIOR
AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AND RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH...LINGERING
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING XCP IN SCT SHRA EAST PR TO
USVI. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BY AFT WITH TJSJ THE MOST LIKELY
TAF LOCATION TO HAVE MVFR OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR...MTN OBSC LIKELY
TOO. LLVL WIND E 10-20 KT BLO FL100 THEN WSW INCR SPD ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE INCREASING SLOWLY DUE TO NORTHEAST SWELLS. AT
THIS TIME...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET WITH A MODERATE
TO FRESH EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 50 50 50 30
STT 89 77 89 77 / 40 50 50 20