Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI MAY 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA AND SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THIS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE CORE OF THE JET WILL PASS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AT UPPER LEVELS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UNTIL
TUESDAY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. A TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE MONA CHANNEL WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY. PATCH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA CHANNEL HAVE GENERATED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER NOON. IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
16-20 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 10/21-22Z.
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH AS IT PASSES THROUGH AMZ710 AND AMZ712 AND AMZ741. IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER BY THE TIME IT REACHES AGUADILLA BUT MAY
STILL PRODUCE VIGOROUS SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE GFS INDICATES THAT GOOD MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL ENSURE
THAT SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT 850 MB IS
DEPICTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WINDS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE MOIST EXPECT PERSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND NIGHT AND
MORNINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AFTER
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE AROUND 21Z...THEREFORE...EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND SHIFTS. VCTS/SHRA ARE FORECASTED FOR TJBQ AND
TJSJ. MAINLY ESE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT AN INCREASE ON VCTS/SHRA IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...SOME GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER HOWEVER. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN CHANGE
ONLY A LITTLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 88 / 50 50 40 40
STT 75 86 76 86 / 60 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will fall today in PR and USVI. Mothers day will be with better weather.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST SAT MAY 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE APPEARS TO CONFIRM THAT GFS HAS A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON 500 MB LOW NEAR 25N/66W. IT IS WRAPPING AROUND AND
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY, HOWEVER IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
A LOWER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN
RETROGRADE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA ON SUNDAY...TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE
NEXT TROUGH LEAVING THE U.S. EAST COAST ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO PR/USVI BUT MOST OF THE DRYING TODAY WILL BE ABOVE 700
MB...TOO LATE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PR...LESS FOR USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

DYNAMICS SUPPORTING STORMS TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN WAS THE CASE
FRI. BUT 85 KNOT JET CORE AT 200 MB OVER THE TOP US TODAY WITH
LITTLE SHEAR BELOW WILL VENTILATE THE LARGER STORMS QUITE WELL
WHILE LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE TO BE PROVIDED MAINLY BY SEA
BREEZE AND HEATING OF ISLAND INTERIORS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT IST IN PASSING SHOWERS.
SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST FOR PR/USVI...TSRA LIKELY IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ AFTER 11/16Z. SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH ALWAYS SUGGEST CAUTION IS A GOOD PRACTICE. SEAS WILL DROP OFF
A LITTLE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG JET WILL ENSURE THAT STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
ONCE WELL DEVELOPED. BUT THAT ALSO IMPLIES THAT SHALLOWER STORMS
WILL BE SLOWER AND DEVELOPING ON TOPOGRAPHIC BARRIERS AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING APPEARS A GOOD BET ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 76 / 40 30 30 20
STT 84 75 87 78 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 11 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning:    Mainly fair.

Afternoon:    Partly cloudy with with isolated showers mainly over interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Back to green code in Guadeloupe. Showers and tstorms have cease. Weather is calm and fair... even if given Meteo-France Guadeloupe conditions should deteriorate tommorow. Showers and isolated tstorms shoud make another comeback ( again!). Anyway, let's enjoy this day.

WEATHER. Back to green for Guadeloupe

franceantilles.fr 10.05.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 216461.php

Wet and unstable conditions moved away from our islands. The tstorms cells deflate and tend to disappear. Hence a return to green code for Guadeloupe.
During this new weather episode, frequent and occasionally marked showers have affected our island and brang rainfall up to 70 to 110 mm, especially in the locality of Petit Canal.

[BZSTORM]

Luis and you others with more knowledge might know if this would have any related input to the projected storm for West Caribbean on May 1st there was a particularly unusual effect just before sunset more noticeable out at the cayes from reports. There were reports of yellow,orange to deep red in sky, normally its more pastel tones, particularly when looking out to sea from Placencia peninsula as sun sets on lagoon side. There was speculation it could have been due to particles from smoke as we'd had allot of bush fires in Belize that week but some of the sailing types who used to live in the VI, thought Sahara dust might be cause. Anyway no one local could remember ever seeing sky that color ever, and freaked the oldsters out a bit. It has also unseasonably hot through mid April into May days often over 100F even on the coast.
My husband who is tour guide noted in April during the week following full moon that the seas temp outer reef (location was the Gladden Spit MPA) was way warmer than it should be at that time of year, with few cold patches (there is proper name for this but forget it right now).
Anyway, for those with better knowledge than me about all those little factors which can aid a storm to form thought I throw in these observations.

[Gustywind]

Luis and you others with more knowledge might know if this would have any related input to the projected storm for West Caribbean on May 1st there was a particularly unusual effect just before sunset more noticeable out at the cayes from reports. There were reports of yellow,orange to deep red in sky, normally its more pastel tones, particularly when looking out to sea from Placencia peninsula as sun sets on lagoon side. There was speculation it could have been due to particles from smoke as we'd had allot of bush fires in Belize that week but some of the sailing types who used to live in the VI, thought Sahara dust might be cause. Anyway no one local could remember ever seeing sky that color ever, and freaked the oldsters out a bit. It has also unseasonably hot through mid April into May days often over 100F even on the coast.
My husband who is tour guide noted in April during the week following full moon that the seas temp outer reef (location was the Gladden Spit MPA) was way warmer than it should be at that time of year, with few cold patches (there is proper name for this but forget it right now).
Anyway, for those with better knowledge than me about all those little factors which can aid a storm to form thought I throw in these observations.

Very interresting post. I don't think that i can help you but i do tkink that Cycloneye could bring you something about your obs.
Thanks for all.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT MAY 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STARTED TO DEVELOP...ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS MOVING ALL THE ACTIVITY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE LESS THAN 1 INCH
THROUGH 230 PM AST. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT...AS
MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. FOR MOTHER`S
DAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. FOR
MONDAY...COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST IS FOR A DRYING TREND...AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST 11/23Z ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST IN PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
TO 5K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 5K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 76 87 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 87 78 87 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Luis and you others with more knowledge might know if this would have any related input to the projected storm for West Caribbean on May 1st there was a particularly unusual effect just before sunset more noticeable out at the cayes from reports. There were reports of yellow,orange to deep red in sky, normally its more pastel tones, particularly when looking out to sea from Placencia peninsula as sun sets on lagoon side. There was speculation it could have been due to particles from smoke as we'd had allot of bush fires in Belize that week but some of the sailing types who used to live in the VI, thought Sahara dust might be cause. Anyway no one local could remember ever seeing sky that color ever, and freaked the oldsters out a bit. It has also unseasonably hot through mid April into May days often over 100F even on the coast.
My husband who is tour guide noted in April during the week following full moon that the seas temp outer reef (location was the Gladden Spit MPA) was way warmer than it should be at that time of year, with few cold patches (there is proper name for this but forget it right now).
Anyway, for those with better knowledge than me about all those little factors which can aid a storm to form thought I throw in these observations.

Hi BZSTORM. Interesting observations there that are important because warmer waters is a favorable factor for systems to develop.So far this year has seen lest Saharan dust than in past years and that is another factor favorable. I will keep you informed about the Caribbean possible development for late May in the coming days so stay tuned.

[cycloneye]

Good morning and happy mothers day. Good weather will prevail today with only isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT
23N AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BUT THE LOWER LEVEL LOW BELOW 700 MB
NORTH OF PR HAS DECOUPLED AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN 00Z GFS SHOWS. IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON MON/TUE. SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE MOVED EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY
NORTHWARD OF 19N WHILE THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ARRIVING INTO PR/USVI
ABOVE 850 MB. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SINCE WE ARE UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

TRADE WINDS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A COUPLE MORE DAYS THEN HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT BACK FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE
TRADES DEEPEN A BIT BY TUE. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT DO NOT SEE VERY MANY OF THEM OCCURING
ANYTIME THIS WEEK AS THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL NOT YET RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VCTS/VCSH ARE STILL POSSIBLE AFT 12/16Z
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL
ONLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE 4 FT OR UNDER FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR FLOODING TO BE A PROBLEM
TODAY. SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND IT STARTED SAT IN DRYING
OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 76 87 78 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 12 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge across the region.

Morning:   Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe and Martinica Under an yellow alert today.

A Sunday day in the rain
franceantilles.fr 12.05.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 216461.php

Stormy showers, at times supported continued throughout the day. The stormy character should diminish in the morning, and then resume from midday.

Thunderstorm cells back from South. Stormy showers, at times supported continued throughout the day. Stormy character orageux should decays in the morning, and then resume from midday. Improvement is expected in the evening, or night of Sunday to Monday. On the localities of the Grands-Fonds, le Lamentin, the rainfall reached 40 millemeters in one hour.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SUN MAY 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED LOCAL AREA IS UNDER
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF SURFACE THROUGH...WHICH HAS LIMITED THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...LINGERING
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
WERE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
THROUGH WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH WILL BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORNING TJSJ RAOB
INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
7K FEET...BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 7K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 87 78 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today for PR and adjacent islands but by midweek things turn more rainy.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUE NIGHT AS DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM DIGS
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROF WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU
PROMOTING WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT
CONDITIONS WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE MID
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INDUCING AN INVERTED SFC TROF. POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL EXIST MID WEEK AS STEERING WINDS COLLAPSE
LEADING TO VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. TROF PULLS OUT AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER TROF WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND TJBQ. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSIBLE
BETWEEN 13/17-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH SAT. TSTMS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 20 20 30 0
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 13 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge across the region.

Morning:   Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE DISSIPATES TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY...MOVING CLOSE TO REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST...WHILE PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND APPROACHING TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE STEADILY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FROM AROUND 1.50 INCHES TODAY TO NEAR 1.90 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR...NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ UNTIL AT
LEAST 13/23Z. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 13/23Z AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 77 / 20 20 30 0
STT 86 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Hi BZSTORM. It looks like for now there wont be a Caribbean development as the models are not bullish at this time. However,the CFSv2 model shows plenty of moisture in the Western Caribbean during the last week of May. Let's see if the models turn bullish on development in the comming days or they stay showing no development. I will keep you and all of our Caribbean friends informed.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A trough will increase the showers starting today for PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST DRAWS CLOSER.
TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED AND EAST OF THE AREA THU.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC WILL
PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING WINDS
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ON WED...TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT TIME OF PEAK
HEATING AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF AXIS
ACROSS PR. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. STEERING WINDS COLLAPSE WITH MODELS
SHOWING CALM WINDS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO STRONG
FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND
FVRBL RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS.

TROF AXIS PULLS OUT WED NIGHT WITH ECMWF INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO A DROP IN H85 THETAE AND PW VALUES. THE
DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT. ON SUN...MODELS SHOW RISING PW
VALUES AS ANOTHER TROF OVR THE BAHAMAS PROMOTES MOISTURE AND
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW...GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PORTRAYING A VERY WET SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST
UNTIL THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL BTWN 14/17-22Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS UP TO 2 KFT FOR THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 40 0 20 20
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 14 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough east of Jamaica across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...AND CLOSE TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WHILE PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FOR WEDNESDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE STEADILY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FROM AROUND 1.60
INCHES TODAY TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DUE
TO THE LIGHT WIND FLOW UP TO 20K FEET...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LONG PERIOD
OF TIME ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE THE
FLOODING PROBLEMS SPECIALLY ACROSS THE MUNICIPALITIES NORTH OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AFTER 14/23Z. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN... NORTHWESTERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ
UNTIL AT LEAST 14/23Z. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
TERMINAL UNTIL 14/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 88 / 0 20 20 40
STT 77 87 77 88 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Hi BZSTORM and rest of Caribbean and Central America friends.

It looks like for now there wont be a Caribbean development as the models are not bullish at this time. However,the GFS model shows plenty of moisture in the Caribbean during the next few days going to the ladder part of May. Let's see if the models turn bullish on development in the comming days or they stay showing no development. I will keep you and all of our Caribbean friends informed.