STORM2K

At this juncture, I will take any type of cooldown over this current abnormal heat we are experiencing right now. It is just too early for this type of heat extreme plain and simple!

We will see how much it may cool down as we enter into the first week in March. I have been fooled by the medium to long range model guidance too much this past winter season. I will not take the bait too much anymore until I see it within the 5 day range.

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: At this juncture, I will take any type of cooldown over this current abnormal heat we are experiencing right now.

We will see how much it may cool down as we enter into the first week in March. I have been fooled by the medium to long range models too much this past winter season. I will not take the bait too much anymore until I wee it within the 5 day range.

Yep, couldn't agree more. GFS 12Z further makes that point. At least the EURO has the long term trending a little cooler; Of course that could change on a dime too.

I have no doubt a cool down is on the way and it could be substantial...but we'll need to wait. When temps are running at or near record highs it's not much of a leap to anticipate some moderation.

It is too damn hot for February. Not acceptable at all. It is always cold everywhere else but hot instantly in FL.

It maxed out at 86 degrees officially at the NWS Jax office late this afternoon, a new record high temperature for today's date.

Gainesville also set a record high of 89 degrees this afternoon.

There is a possibility of seeing more potential records tied or broken across Northeast Florida tomorrow and potentially into Saturday.

This is just an unbelievably anomalous heat ridge we are currently experiencing over the region, both at the surface and mid-levels. It is at 591 dm, centered just north of Hispaniola and extends westward to over South Florida. Heck, it is not surprising we are seeing record high temperatures across the area with such a strong ridge in place. The ridge will remain anchored in place through this weekend. I am hoping that this ridge will finally begin to retreat east on Sunday as a frontal boundary tries to approach from the northwest and bring a chance of showers along and ahead of it. . I hope so because I am not digging these record high temps in late February. It is flat out too soon to be having heat index readings in the lower 90s, as they were here late this afternoon. Looks likely we will see a repeat of this tomorrow.

I've got mid 70's highs starting Monday so the end of this torch is in sight here. beyond that the odds continue to tilt in favor of somewhat cooler and wetter weather as we near the beginning of March. In the interim this early season heatwave isn't exactly torture.

Well thankfully it is not July/August heat torture, but for yours truly, considering this is only late February, this is bad enough, and it is still record heat no matter how you slice it. The relative humidity values are a bit lower today, compared to yesterday. It is the only saving grace currently. So, not as muggy as it was yesterday. RH is currently at 48%. Yesterday it was in the high 60s percentile. Therefore, the heat indices are slightly less than yesterday.


I am looking forward to better manageable conditions with a little cooler temps here on Monday after a frontal passage.
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EDIT: The NWS Jax office set another record high temperature for today's date of 87 degrees. Gainesville Regional Airport also set another record high today as well, with 88 degrees.

90 Degrees in Vero Beach today. Not only was this the highest temp here for the date, but the FIRST TIME ever that Vero reported 90 during the month of February. I'm beginning to think that at this rate, the Gulf is gonna be one mighty big bath tub come April/May.

In an unrelated thought, I was just thinking how uneventful this February has been in terms of squall lines. Given all the El Nino discussion, February is generally the key month for Florida to get one or two bouts of severe weather. Technically a weak El Nino has only just been officially designated in recent days however the overall "warm-neutral" has been fairly constant during the last few months. Perhaps if the right dynamic fall into place next month, we'll possibly see one more deep digging mid level trough and the low latitude support that might induce a significant severe weather threat. All in all though, there's little to suggest that Florida should expect any significant out of the norm conditions over the upcoming few weeks (other then an increase in heat and an increase in tourists).

Front slipped through here about 5 pm...looking forward to the cooler and drier conditions. Overall the week looks unsettled as the front gets hung up over the state but the February heatwave is on the way out. Here's to hoping for a normalish temp regime in March...which would be a slice of heaven should it happen..

I don’t see us cooling down to normal as long as the NAO is positive which has been all winter long it will not really cool off. We were done here in South Florida before winter even started. As far as this weak El Niño goes it was almost like we were in a La Niña pattern of warm and dry other than the weekend of January 26-28th.

The CPC outlooks have been showing closer to normal conditions for awhile now. It is coming. Of course normals have been going up for several weeks so that needs to be factored in. Since we will have a stalled front it is very possible that south florida remains in the soup while the rest of us cash in on some cooler and drier conditions. My NWS forecast low tonight is 60...we have been 70 and above for a solid week so that is going to feel nice..

The 12z Euro has a front stalling next weekend across south Florida with with cool rainy conditions for central north Florida. Then by March 6th d10 it has an arctic vortex digging(similar to late last Jan) across the SE with a major snowstorm in the making for the mid Atlantic Northeast. Take it with a grain of salt but if that happens then Orlando and Tampa would see a hard freeze(but don't hold your breath since there's no -NAO lol)!

FlaWeatherDude wrote:The 12z Euro has a front stalling next weekend across south Florida with with cool rainy conditions for central north Florida. Then by March 6th d10 it has an arctic vortex digging(similar to late last Jan) across the SE with a major snowstorm in the making for the mid Atlantic Northeast. Take it with a grain of salt but if that happens then Orlando and Tampa would see a hard freeze(but don't hold your breath since there's no -NAO lol)!

And the PNA is forecasted to go negative.
If anything the Euro has been trending warmer for FL with its latest 0z run.

Wow is it nice out! 70 with a 37 degree dewpoint at Tampa. Now this is more like it.

The 06Z GFS run this morning is a very interesting oneIF, and this is a BIG IF, if it verifies 1 week from now.

This particular run shows a potential of having the coldest spell of the season .

The models have been so inconsistent medium to long range, so I am really being super cautious. But, it is showing potential of freezes across the North Florida region middle of next week. GFS showing potential upper 20s here on next Wednesday 3/6. We have not seen temps below 30 degrees here all this past Fall/Winter long .

The way this season has been, I will be surprised if the GFS will not be warmer with time with a forecast - PNA. We will see! This weather has been bi-polar for sure!

The 06z GFS in a week is more like a big NO! Let’s face it, winter has been over for nearly a month now for the FL peninsula at least. The trees have shedded their leaves and started blooming again and pollen is in full force, bring on Spring!

TheStormExpert wrote:The 06z GFS in a week is more like a big NO! Let’s face it, winter has been over for nearly a month now for the FL peninsula at least. The trees have shedded their leaves and started blooming again and pollen is in full force, bring on Spring!

I agree. It has been Spring really since the end of January around here. + NAO and the progressive El Nino pattern have been the major stories these past three months. I have faced this reality all season long that this past winter season has been a big disappointment for me with regards to even having just seasonal averages. Well above normal temps and very wet up here. I will post a summary of this past meteorological winter season by the end of this week.

The upcoming pattern favors a tight temp gradient across the southeast at some point during the next week or so...that often signal storm potential which could lend itself to squall line/severe potential at some point. An eventual shot/episode of cool air would seem likely as well. Overall I have been and remain optimistic for some active/interesting weather and that includes some cooler weather as we move into March. We've got a good dump of heavy rain incoming right now in my neighborhood. really dark outside.

psyclone wrote:The upcoming pattern favors a tight temp gradient across the southeast at some point during the next week or so...that often signal storm potential which could lend itself to squall line/severe potential at some point. An eventual shot/episode of cool air would seem likely as well. Overall I have been and remain optimistic for some active/interesting weather and that includes some cooler weather as we move into March. We've got a good dump of heavy rain incoming right now in my neighborhood. really dark outside.

A tight temp gradient for sure, especially between Georgia/N. Florida. Of course the updated 12Z GFS has flattened out the trough a bit with much less of a pressure gradient down into S. Florida. Latest run wants to quickly swing the surface winds to NNE for S. Florida. Based on the prior GFS model runs, I would have guessed that all S. Florida might see temps well down into the low 40's but it may now be again trending against that. At least it'll be an potentially interesting frontal passage with model variances sure to occur between now and then. Hey.... I'll take whatever cool down were lucky enough to get at this point. At least for myself, I'm still looking forward to March 5-7 in what might be Central Florida's last legit shot at nighttime 40's this year. Previously this month I believe Orlando's coldest February temp only dropped to about 46.

It is absolutely pouring buckets here. My neighborhood has been crushed with heavy rain this Winter and we are cashing a big prize yet again.