Texas Fall 2018

[orangeblood]

The system early next week is very dynamic but it seems like we played this game a lot last year and always came up empty - positive tilted trough, big cold blast, models showing back end snow for DFW. Unless the trough orientation and timing changes, it will be very hard to get any snow in DFW. Temps are in the 40s and 50s when the best combo of moisture and lift moves across DFW, precipitation of any kind is limited, and then dry air crashes in. Only 1 Euro EPS member shows a setup that would allow for a system that would wrap significant precipitation back into the colder air producing snow for DFW.

This is not last year though....completely different pattern has been evolving over the past several months. The Northern Pacific Upper Levels should allow S/Ws to dig much more into the central/southern US than they have over the past several years.

[bubba hotep]

The system early next week is very dynamic but it seems like we played this game a lot last year and always came up empty - positive tilted trough, big cold blast, models showing back end snow for DFW. Unless the trough orientation and timing changes, it will be very hard to get any snow in DFW. Temps are in the 40s and 50s when the best combo of moisture and lift moves across DFW, precipitation of any kind is limited, and then dry air crashes in. Only 1 Euro EPS member shows a setup that would allow for a system that would wrap significant precipitation back into the colder air producing snow for DFW.

This is not last year though....completely different pattern has been evolving over the past several months. The Northern Pacific Upper Levels should allow S/Ws to dig much more into the central US than they have over the past several years.

That is obvious, but it was an issue with the models last year. While the overall background state is changing, it is possible to get short term setups that buck the background state. With that said, the 12z GFS shifts the orientation of things a bit and shows more snow over DFW. Western Canada ridge is somewhat better placed and lower heights near southern Greenland but the trough is still too elongated and fast. We need it to slow some and tighten up some.

[Jarodm12]

I'm in Durant Oklahoma every 12z model lays down snow Monday evening for me !

[bubba hotep]

[Jarodm12]

The cmc has a major storm here in Oklahoma

[Ralph's Weather]

The system early next week is very dynamic but it seems like we played this game a lot last year and always came up empty - positive tilted trough, big cold blast, models showing back end snow for DFW. Unless the trough orientation and timing changes, it will be very hard to get any snow in DFW. Temps are in the 40s and 50s when the best combo of moisture and lift moves across DFW, precipitation of any kind is limited, and then dry air crashes in. Only 1 Euro EPS member shows a setup that would allow for a system that would wrap significant precipitation back into the colder air producing snow for DFW.

This is not last year though....completely different pattern has been evolving over the past several months. The Northern Pacific Upper Levels should allow S/Ws to dig much more into the central/southern US than they have over the past several years.

As I alluded to yesterday if the main trough could connect with the E Pac shortwave then we would be in business and the GFS is now doing that. I believe moisture is still being underestimated as is typical in this situation.
The 12Z GFS has much better moisture and another couple degrees lower and we are looking at an all day snow vs just a backside snow.

[dhweather]

I'd wait til the weekend before i get too worked up honestly i think there's potential sure but a lot can go wrong

So you're saying its like a CAT 5 IN THE GULF ??

[Ntxw]

Big issue the past few years has been the hadley cell and expanded ridging from the Pacific to the Baja/Southwest. Its no longer there and has been easy to trof. Evidence of our rains the past several months. Nino.

Qpf should increase once guidance captures the baja feature. If we can get the cold in a little faster and deeper it could get interesting for NTX

[dhweather]

Big issue the past few years has been the hadley cell and expanded ridging from the Pacific to the Baja/Southwest. Its no longer there and has been easy to trof. Evidence of our rains the past several months. Nino.

Qpf should increase once guidance captures the baja feature. If we can get the cold in a little faster and deeper it could get interesting for NTX

Given model tendencies to underestimate the arrival of cold Canadian air .......

[aggiecutter]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110812/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

Looks like Portastorm made that map. There is a hole right over Texarkana.

[gboudx]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110812/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

Looks like Portastorm made that map. There is a hole right over Texarkana.

Brent did it.

[Brent]

Euro is a no, all the snow to the north again. Precip moving out too fast

[bubba hotep]

Euro is a no, all the snow to the north again. Precip moving out too fast

The system slows down a tad but we need another 6 to 12 hrs over the weekend runs. Not a lot but nearly outside the current ensemble spread (before seeing all the 12z ensembles). Keep an eye on Pacific convection and see if we can get enough to alter the wave break into WCAN.

[Portastorm]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110812/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

Looks like Portastorm made that map. There is a hole right over Texarkana.

Brent did it.

Exactly! I like you aggiecutter ... you removed the Omega Block last winter and let it snowed in Austin several times.

Brent drew that map up, not me.

[TheProfessor]

The things to watch for this storm will be how far it digs, if the energy can pull ahead of the trough, and can it stay compact and not sheared. It's probably unlikely for it all to happen, but if it does come together then there's definitely a chance for a big storm from the Southern plains to the Midwest.

[Brent]

EPS doesn't look that great either

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro has a freeze almost all the way down to the coastline for Wednesday morning

[starsfan65]

GFS says Snow but Euro says no snow! Which model will win out?

[Brent]

GFS says Snow but Euro says no snow! Which model will win out?

Given our luck lately probably the Euro

[starsfan65]

GFS says Snow but Euro says no snow! Which model will win out?

Given our luck lately probably the Euro

I think it will be the GFS.