STORM2K

tajmahal going with guidance, most models suggest the arctic air will arrive sometime over the weekend, im targeting next sunday , still not 100% sure though, as for how cold, well thats tough to say, the icon is colder, I would feel more confident in how cold once the mesocale models like the nam get into range

ECMWF forecast temperatures for November 25:
29–27...Amarillo
55–50...Austin Camp Mabry
48–46...Dallas
21–17...Denver
40–34...Oklahoma City
40–35...Tulsa
B20–B39...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

GEM forecast temperatures for November 25:
42–15...Amarillo
52–37...Austin Camp Mabry
47–33...Dallas
15–00...Denver
45–29...Oklahoma City
45–28...Tulsa
B37–B40...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

GFS forecast temperatures for November 25:
33–26...Amarillo
64–47...Austin Camp Mabry
59–47...Dallas
31–22...Denver
44–33...Oklahoma City
49–35...Tulsa
B43–B46...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

I wonder what if any issues weather wise will occur with the expected volcano eruption in Iceland..

Fifty Rock wrote:I wonder what if any issues weather wise will occur with the expected volcano eruption in Iceland..

No glacial cap on this one. It should just be local effects.

Well end of the month cold shot In October, looks like end of the month cold shot in November is coming. Could that cycle continue for December? Seems likely hopefully we get some winter weather sooner rather than later.

Nederlander wrote:

Fifty Rock wrote:I wonder what if any issues weather wise will occur with the expected volcano eruption in Iceland..

No glacial cap on this one. It should just be local effects.

Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines had a years–long effect on global temperatures even though there waa no ice there.

So what am I missing? I would assume a cold snap now would be colder than what we had at Halloween but it's not showing up like that so far

The global models are really and i mean REALLY struggling with this pattern, im going with the CMC guidance as it and its ensemble have been the only consistent guidance so far, the Euro and GFS with out a doubt are way too warm so i expect the models to trend back cold given they offen lose the cold in the medium range only to bring it back again, but given we arent far from the NAM being in range of this cold snap, id say those models are going to be way more reliable than the globals, its actually said to see how bad the GFS and Euro are performing right now, CMC will be correct

I would expect a warmup during the second week of December. Possibly even later in the first week. Till then we should see a decent period of below normal temps.

Stratton23 wrote:The global models are really and i mean REALLY struggling with this pattern, im going with the CMC guidance as it and its ensemble have been the only consistent guidance so far, the Euro and GFS with out a doubt are way too warm so i expect the models to trend back cold given they offen lose the cold in the medium range only to bring it back again, but given we arent far from the NAM being in range of this cold snap, id say those models are going to be way more reliable than the globals, its actually said to see how bad the GFS and Euro are performing right now, CMC will be correct

All the global deterministic models currently disagree with GEM.

tajmahal wrote:

Stratton23 wrote:The global models are really and i mean REALLY struggling with this pattern, im going with the CMC guidance as it and its ensemble have been the only consistent guidance so far, the Euro and GFS with out a doubt are way too warm so i expect the models to trend back cold given they offen lose the cold in the medium range only to bring it back again, but given we arent far from the NAM being in range of this cold snap, id say those models are going to be way more reliable than the globals, its actually said to see how bad the GFS and Euro are performing right now, CMC will be correct

All the global deterministic models currently disagree with GEM.

That’s because those models have a problem seeing dense shallow cold air. That has been proven true on multiple occasions.

Cpv17 normally I would rarely side with the canadian guidance, but i think it has done a better job lately at seeing cold airmasses compared to the GFS and Euro, while the CMC does have a cold bias, i do feel like it is handling the pattern a bit better than the other two
Also appears the NAM so far is coming in colder despite only going out 84 hours, at least intially than the global guidance, not surprising

I get the arguments but I dunno I just figured by now if it was gonna be really cold there would be more model support than the CMC

18z GFS says DFW will close out Nov with less than 1/2" of rain for the entire month in an "El Nino" and that would make 5 out of the last 6 months with less than 1" of rain total for the month.

Brent wrote:I get the arguments but I dunno I just figured by now if it was gonna be really cold there would be more model support than the CMC

It’ll be cold but don’t expect anything too crazy. Just a decent cooldown.

bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS says DFW will close out Nov with less than 1/2" of rain for the entire month in an "El Nino" and that would make 5 out of the last 6 months with less than 1" of rain total for the month.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023112018/384/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

We busted here too only a few hundredths at the airport and Tulsa had been at zero all month before this. Not great. That's right it hadnt even officially rained since before the Halloween cold

Cpv17 wrote:

tajmahal wrote:

Stratton23 wrote:The global models are really and i mean REALLY struggling with this pattern, im going with the CMC guidance as it and its ensemble have been the only consistent guidance so far, the Euro and GFS with out a doubt are way too warm so i expect the models to trend back cold given they offen lose the cold in the medium range only to bring it back again, but given we arent far from the NAM being in range of this cold snap, id say those models are going to be way more reliable than the globals, its actually said to see how bad the GFS and Euro are performing right now, CMC will be correct

All the global deterministic models currently disagree with GEM.

That’s because those models have a problem seeing dense shallow cold air. That has been proven true on multiple occasions.

That has not been demonstrated for all global models, e.g., ICON, UKMET, ACCESS-G, Norwegian ECMWF, etc.

My old weather station bit the dust awhile ago, so I finally upgraded to a Davis Vantage Vue. Pretty excited. Should be arriving in a few days.

Frontal passage imminent.

ECMWF forecast temperatures for Monday, November 27:
42–28...Amarillo
52–45...Austin Camp Mabry
47–37...Dallas
37–14...Denver
43–28...Oklahoma City
44–29...Tulsa
04–B31...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

GEM forecast temperatures for Monday, November 27:
44–16...Amarillo
48–35...Austin Camp Mabry
44–27...Dallas
40–10...Denver
47–18...Oklahoma City
46–20...Tulsa
08–B12...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

GFS forecast temperatures for Monday, November 27:
50–31...Amarillo
60–50...Austin Camp Mabry
56–46...Dallas
40–27...Denver
48–31...Oklahoma City
48–32...Tulsa
B08–B35...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

tajmahal wrote:

Nederlander wrote:

Fifty Rock wrote:I wonder what if any issues weather wise will occur with the expected volcano eruption in Iceland..

No glacial cap on this one. It should just be local effects.

Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines had a years–long effect on global temperatures even though there waa no ice there.

Pinatubo is a stratovolcano, the anticipated eruption in Iceland is of the fissure nature.