Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AND RELOCATES
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY
TO VARIABLY CLOUDY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR AS WELL AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SO FAR.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. BY MID WEEK...A BROAD TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH DIVERGENT SIDE OF ASSOCIATED JET OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO RESULT IN A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 18/21Z ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AT TJMZ IN AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA. MTN TOPS
MAY BE OBSCURED OVER WRN INTERIOR OF PR. FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
AND USVI ISLANDS...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 86 / 10 20 20 20
STT 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 20 20

[tropicana]

UPDATE Sat May 18/13 630pmET The Eastern Caribbean continued to enjoy the influence of a strong High pressure over the NE Atlantic Ocean, off the Iberian coast. Only isolated light showers were reported today in spots, and most island locations saw accumulations under 1 mm. The rainiest spot was at VC Bird Antigua with 12mm (that was overnight), and less than 3mm at Vigie St Lucia and Rockley S Barbados. The advertised tropical wave has continued to make headway, the leading edge of it near 56 W approx 280-300 miles E of the Southern Windward Islands... the southern edge of the wave has brought rainfall to portions of the Guianas, 18 hour totals through 2pm incldued 18mm at Georgetown Guyana, 15mm at Timehri Guyana and 27mm at Cayenne French Guiana.

The wave has already brought increasingly humid conditions across the Windwards, with dewpoints generally 24C to 25C 75F to 77F, and at one point reaching 26C 78F at Grantley Adams Barbados... and that would translate into some uncomfortably muggy conditions. For some perspective, rarely ever do dewpoints get to 27C 80F and over in the islands. They do in the rain-forested jungles of South America, but not in the islands. Winds continued brisk over the Windwards especially...but the hottest spot today region-wide once again seemed to be Piarco Int Airport Trinidad with afternoon temps topping out at 34.4C 94F.

For May 2013 so far, the Windward Islands are in dire need of some rainfall, not so much for the Leeward Islands. Through May 18 2pm, the rainfall figures for the month :- Piarco Int Airport Trinidad 11.6mm, Hewannora Airport St Lucia 11.7mm, Vigie St Lucia 22.8mm, Grantley Adams Barbados 37.1mm, Canefield Airport Dominica 52.0mm, West End Anguilla 117.1mm, Melville Hall Dominica 170.1mm, VC Bird Antigua 180.4mm, San Juan PR 166.6m, St Croix VI 61.5mm, St Thomas VI 51.8mm. Generally speaking, rainfall is running well above normal for the Leeward Islands and below average for the Windward Islands this month.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR today but the main concern remains the forecast for a rainy pattern to develop later this week so stay tuned for more information.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BE RE ENFORCED BY A SECONDARY AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN A DOMINANT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DRY AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS
TO THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING WESTWARD IN THE PREVAILING WIND
FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT ONLY A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. LIMITED OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

LATEST GPS DERIVED IPW AND LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS
SHOWED A GRADUAL DECLINE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. EXPECT THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MID
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCE FOR ENHANCED EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN ADDITION BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY
ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
19/16Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
BETWEEN 19/17Z-18/21Z ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ IN AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAINS TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED OVER
WRN INTERIOR OF PR. FOR TAF SITES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TJSJ 19/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATES AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS UP TO 15
KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 15KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO
19 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 19 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the south-central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers mainly over central and western parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Hi BZSTORM. The GFS model is showing plenty of moisture in Yucatan and vicinity after the last weekend of this month and it turns later into a Tropical Development situation. Of course is far out and the models will change scenarios but we have to watch this in the coming days to see if this model continues with it and if other models do the same. So stay tuned as I will provide further information as times goes by.

[Macrocane]

Not only Belize may be affected by heavy rains, the whole Central America will be under heavy rains, especially Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador:

[cycloneye]

Not only Belize may be affected by heavy rains, the whole Central America will be under heavy rains, especially Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador:

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/4193/gfs06z192h19513.gif

Hi my friend. Yes,the whole area looks very wet if this occurs. It also looks like development starts in EPAC and then crosses over to Caribbean.

[Macrocane]

Yep, it looks interesting, let's see if it verifies as the GFS loves to make phantom storms in late May.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED BUT ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS MOISTURE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS TREND OF INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SINCE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. FOR
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A BIT MORE SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
INDICATED BY THE GFS MODEL...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS IN AND AROUND TJMZ UNTIL 19/22Z. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER 20/16Z ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THAT SHOULD AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO
20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 85 / 20 20 20 40
STT 77 88 78 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Things look wet for the ladder part of the week going into next weekend so stay tuned for more information.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1024 PM AST SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...THE 20/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN CLEARLY WETTER IN MANY
LAYERS AND SOMEWHAT WETTER IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE GFS 19/18Z RUN SHOWED DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF PUERTO RICO AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT ALSO EXPECT THIS TREND TO
REVERSE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE MODEL IS SHOWING THE
WETTEST DAYS TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE JUST A
LITTLE AHEAD OF THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL OF THE AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE
THAT JUST LEFT THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA TODAY. SO PERHAPS THE GFS
WILL DELAY THIS EVENT STILL A LITTLE MORE. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING
FOR INCREASING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK. ONE CAVEAT. THE GFS IS SHOWING
WEAK MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 725 MB THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
HAVE TO THINK THAT THIS WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FALLS.
250 MB DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE COUNTER BALANCED WITH 300-400 MB
CONVERGENCE KEEPING STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONFINED TO
UPPER LAYERS...AND THIS IS IN SYNCH WITH HIGH LEVELS OF UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS TOO MAY IMPEDE HEAVY RAIN LATER...SO MODELS
ARE SENDING A VERY MIXED MESSAGE ABOUT WETTER WEATHER LATER THIS
WEEK. SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY POPS AND WEATHER TO MORE
CLOSELY REFLECT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

It will be a variable week weatherwise in PR and adjacent islands but it becomes very wet by the ladder part of the week going to the long Memorial day weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE OCCASIONALLY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SOME LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL CROSS THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES WILL PREVAIL CLOSE TO
1.60 INCHES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND
2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHES TO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE...EMERGING TO THE AFRICAN COASTS
TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN A WET
PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/16Z SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ BTW
20/16Z AND 20/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 76 / 20 20 40 30
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 20 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the southern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers mainly over central and western parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

The forecast by the models continues to be very wet for the last days of May in most of the Caribbean and in Central America. Stay tuned for more information as time goes by.

[Gustywind]

The forecast by the models continues to be very wet for the last days of May in most of the Caribbean and in Central America. Stay tuned for more information as time goes by.

Very interresting, let's see what happens during the next couple of days. We should keep an eye on that as impressive rainfalls have fallen in Guadeloupe since month and in some others islands in vicinity...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO
VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT
THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN EASTERLY WAVE REACHING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEXT FEW HOURS
AT TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS WESTERN CORDILLERA. VFR
OVERNIGHT ALL SITES XCP STRAY BRIEF SHRA. LLVL WIND E 10-20 KT BLO
FL100 BCMG W INCR SPD ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 30 40 30 40
STT 77 87 77 87 / 30 30 40 40

[msbee]

St. Maarten and surrounding islands have experienced tremors the past few days..one just tonight north of Anguilla 4.7

http://www.caribjournal.com/2013/05/20/ ... arthquake/

and one on Saturday near Barbuda...4.8
http://www.caribjournal.com/2013/05/20/ ... arthquake/

I didn't really feel anything myself.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few scattered showers will move thru PR today as a weak tropical wave moves south of the island.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ALSO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TOP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...EMBEDDED MOISTURE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL CROSS THE REGION OCCASIONALLY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAY. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING TO THE REGION...WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY DYNAMIC TO INDUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL
PREVAIL CLOSE TO 1.70 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHES TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
EASTERLY WAVE...ALONG 40 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE
CONSISTENT IN A WET PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 21/14Z. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL120 DURNG THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
L/LVL WIND FM 5-20 KT BLO FL150 BCMG W AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS INCREASE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FOR TODAY
WIND UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 84 77 / 40 30 40 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

May 21 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the southern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of most parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[HurricaneFan]

Wasn't the forecast saying the Tropical Wave was just emerging the African Coast yesterday morning?And they're now saying it is at 40W?That cannot be the same Wave.
I took a look at the satellite and I saw almost nothing around 40W,so what's going on there?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DETECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAST MOVERS...AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...WET AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL
EXCEPT IN SHRA/TSRA NEAR TJMZ ALONG WITH SOME OBSC MTNS ACROSS
INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 21/22Z. LLVL
WIND FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT...HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE MARINERS IS
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING PRODUCING BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 7 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 30 30