Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Antigua forecast.

http://www.antiguamet.com/Climate/7-DAY ... recast.pdf

Does anyone has links to the islands and Central America NWS offices? It will be important to have those to gather information during the hurricane season and be posted here.

Yeah, very good idea as the season has already began and we never know how Mother Nature could step up.
Here are some links Cycloneye let's enjoy it.

St Lucia: http://www.slumet.gov.lc/
Barbados: http://www.barbadosweather.org/
Dominica: http://www.weather.gov.dm/forecast.php
St Kitts and Nevis: http://antiguamet.com/Antigua_Met_files/SKB_Fcast.html
Trinidad and Tobago: http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/
Montserrat: http://www.antiguamet.com/Antigua_Met_f ... Fcast.html
Curacao: http://www.meteo.an/index.asp
Anguilla: http://www.anguilla-weather.com/fcastmain.html

Thank you Gusty. I will put the links on the first post of this thread. We can also post in a daily basis the different forecasts from the Caribbean and Central America areas.

[Gustywind]

Antigua forecast.

http://www.antiguamet.com/Climate/7-DAY ... recast.pdf

Does anyone has links to the islands and Central America NWS offices? It will be important to have those to gather information during the hurricane season and be posted here.

Yeah, very good idea as the season has already began and we never know how Mother Nature could step up.
Here are some links Cycloneye let's enjoy it.

St Lucia: http://www.slumet.gov.lc/
Barbados: http://www.barbadosweather.org/
Dominica: http://www.weather.gov.dm/forecast.php
St Kitts and Nevis: http://antiguamet.com/Antigua_Met_files/SKB_Fcast.html
Trinidad and Tobago: http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/
Montserrat: http://www.antiguamet.com/Antigua_Met_f ... Fcast.html
Curacao: http://www.meteo.an/index.asp
Anguilla: http://www.anguilla-weather.com/fcastmain.html

Thank you Gusty. I will put the links on the first post of this thread. We can also post in a daily basis the different forecasts from the Caribbean and Central America areas.

No problem my friend for what you daily bring for us... it's a nice way to share it with you,and all the carib family
That should be very precious links for us.

[cycloneye]

I put Jamaica,Grenada and Belize on the first post list of Weather Offices. Let's see if we can bring a few more from the Caribbean and Central America.

[Gustywind]

I put Jamaica,Grenada and Belize on the first post list of Weather Offices. Let's see if we can bring a few more from the Caribbean and Central America.

Good job Cycloneye ( as usual)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST SAT JUN 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE AREA.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 64 WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND HIGH CLOUDS. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVED IN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 64 WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH BULK OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...TO GENERATE A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS U.S.V.I. AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FEW SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES MOVES OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS
WITH TROUGH ALOFT. DUE TO TUTT LOCATION AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT BREAK EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ AFTER
08/18Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...DECREASING TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT PASSING SHRA
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT MAY CAUSE VCSH ACROSS
TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK...AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 30 30 20 50
STT 78 88 78 88 / 40 40 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST SAT JUN 8 2013

.UPDATE...SHOWERS DEVELOPED AROUND SUNSET AND HAVE PERSISTED WHILE
MOVING WEST OVER PUERTO RICO UNTIL THE PRESENT HOUR. EXPECT THAT
ALL SHOWERS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT AT THE
LATEST. OTHERWISE A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ON NEXRAD RADAR
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MOVING OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. THESE WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE SEEMS SET TO ENTER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 06Z AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF BETTER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE A BIG PULL DOWN IN
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING ARE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGES OF THESE WAVES. FLOW IS
STILL MODERATE TO FRESH AND MOST CONVECTION WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME
OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA BARRING ANY TRAINING OF CELLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF DRIER AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIMIC
PRODUCT AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 59 WEST AT 18 DEGREES SOUTH AND
SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE BEARING VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20 NORTH. THIS MIGHT HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
LIMITED TOMORROW. HOWEVER LATEST MIMIC IMAGES HOWEVER ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA SO WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ABOVE 2 INCHES AS REPORTED IN THE 09/00Z SOUNDING. THEN MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. COULD BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINS HIGHER THAN USUAL ACCORDING TO
THE 18Z GFS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will fall today in PR but increase on Monday as a wave moves mainly to the south.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN JUN 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE ERN ATLC WILL REACH
THE AREA FRI. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING PAST FEW
DAYS HAVE NOW MOVED WEST OF THE AREA AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG 70W.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AS SEEN ON
BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND IS NOT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE. ALSO...DENSE
CIRRUS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND IN COMBINATION WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL ACT TO GREATLY INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL REACH THE AREA MON AND TUE AND INTERACT WITH
TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS CONVECTION ESPECIALLY TUE WHEN BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS INDICATED BY MODELS.

A DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE WED AS TUTT FILLS AND LIFTS OUT AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SAL AHEAD OF
WAVE WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION THU. EXPECT SOME DUST HAZE TO
ALSO START MAKE AN APPEARANCE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. PLENTY
OF DRY SAHARAN AIR IS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ATTM. AS WAVE ENTERS SAL EXPECT STRONG SQUALLS AS
STRONG AEJ WITH SPEEDS OF 40 KT HELP ORGANIZE CONVECTION.
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. IN ADDITION...A SECOND MORE
SIG SAL EPISODE WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS SAHARAN AIR RACES WWD
ACROSS THE ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG AFRICAN EASTERLY JET.
MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMING AT H85 AND VERY DRY LOW-MID LEVEL RH`S
WITH THIS SAL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL SITES.
VCSH POSSIBLE AFTER 09/18Z AROUND TJMZ. WINDS BLO 2KFT ESE-SE
10-20 KT BCMG E LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. TSTMS ESPECIALLY ON
TUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Barbados forecast

Code: Select all

Barbados Weather Forecast



Today's Forecast Valid From 1000Z Sunday 2013-06-09 To 2200Z Sunday 2013-06-09

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.

Wx : Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy and breezy with few scattered showers.

Winds: E - ESE at 20 - 40 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0-2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.



Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Sunday 2013-06-09 To 1000Z Monday 2013-06-10

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is expected to continue being the dominant feature.

Wx : Fair to partly cloudy and breezy with only a few brief isolated showers.

Winds: E - ENE at 20 - 40 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 2.0-2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution.

[cycloneye]

Belize forecast

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/

[cycloneye]

Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

June 9 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Mainly fair and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 33C (92F)     Low: 26C (79F)
 


[cycloneye]

Saba and St Eustatius forecast

Weather Forecast for Saba and St. Eustatius valid until Monday morning 06:00 l.t., June 10, 2013.

Issued: Sunday June 9, 2013 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC ).


Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower
Tonight through Monday morning: Partly to temporarily mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers

Forecast high will be 30ºC, 86ºF and the low will be 25ºC, 77ºF.

Sunrise will occur at 05:36 and sunset at 18:47.

Winds:
Today through Monday morning: Between Northeast and Southeast and gentle to moderate at 8 to 20 miles per hour with higher gusts

Synopsis: A tropical wave will move through the area tonight into Monday, increasing the chance for showers in the local region. Otherwise, winds will be gentle to moderate with a generally tranquil to moderate marine conditions.

Sea conditions: Tranquil to moderate with 3 to 5 feet waves.

Significant tropical weather systems: None.

Special features: None.

Outlook until Tuesday morning: Partly cloudy with some shower activity during the morning hours

Forecaster: D. E Barkmeyer

[Gustywind]

Dominica Forecast

Issued: 6:00 AM on Sunday, June 9, 2013

Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the island.

Forecast for Today and Tonight:

Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers

Wind: East north easterly to East south easterly @ 15 to 40 km/h.

Sea Conditions: Moderate in open water.

Swells: 2.0 to 2.5 meters or 7.0 to 8.0 feet.

Warning/Advisory: Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Sunset: 6:35 PM

Low Tide: 11:28 AM and 10:36 PM

High Tide: 4:12 AM and 5:40 PM

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 6:00 AM on Sunday, June 9, 2013

Increasing moisture levels will result in cloudiness and scattered showers across parts of the island chain during the next 24 to 48 hours. Breezy conditions will also be evident.

Moderate sea conditions are expected during the next 24 to 48 hours with swells peaking near 8.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

[Gustywind]

St Kitts and Nevis forecast

Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 10th June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F

Scattered showers

Synopsis: High pressure will keep a stable atmosphere over the northeast Caribbean. But a moderate trade wind will transport some pockets of moisture across the islands today and tonight.

Today : Partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers

Tonight: fair to partly cloudy with isolated showers

Winds: East 12 - 14 Kts reaching 17 Kts over coastal waters.

Seas: Slight to moderate waves 4 - 5 Ft or 1.2 - 1.5 M.

Barometric Pressure: Above normal

Sunset today: 6:44 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:41 am.

Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Llewellyn Dyer-Forecaster

Forecast issued at 5:20 AM,GMT-04:00 on 09/06/2013

[Gustywind]

Montserrat Forecast


Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 10th June 2013.


Synopsis: High pressure will keep a stable atmosphere over the northeast Caribbean. But a moderate trade wind will transport some pockets of moisture across the islands today and tonight.

Today : Partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers

Tonight: fair to partly cloudy with isolated showers

Winds: East 14 - 17 Kts. 15 -20 Kts over coastal waters.

Seas: Slight to moderate waves 4 - 5 Ft or 1.2 - 1.5 M.

Barometric Pressure: Above normal.

Sunset today: 6:42 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:40 am.

Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Llewellyn Dyer-Forecaster
Forecast issued at 5:20 AM,GMT-04:00 on 09/06/2013

[Gustywind]

Anguilla Forecast

Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 10th June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F

Scattered showers

Synopsis: High pressure will keep a stable atmosphere over the northeast Caribbean. But a moderate trade wind will transport some pockets of moisture across the islands today and tonight.

Today : Partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers

Tonight: fair to partly cloudy with isolated showers

Winds: East 12 - 14 Kts reaching 17 Kts over coastal waters.

Seas: Slight to moderate waves 4 - 5 Ft or 1.2 - 1.5 M.

Barometric Pressure: Above normal

Sunset today: 6:49 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:42 am.

Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

Llewellyn Dyer-Forecaster

Forecast issued at 5:22 AM,GMT-04:00 on 09/06/2013

[Gustywind]

St Lucia Forecast

6:00 AM...DATE...JUNE 09TH 2013...FORECASTER....MACLEAN JN BAPTISTE.

PRESENT WEATHER AT HEWANORRA......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS NEARBY.
AT GFL CHARLES....FAIR.
PRESENT TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA................27 C OR 81 F.
LAST NIGHT’S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT HEWANORRA...26 C OR 79 F.
WIND AT HEWANORRA IS BLOWING FROM THE EAST AT 16 MPH OR 26 KM/H.
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDED AT 2:00 AM AT HEWANORRA..........TRACE.
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH THUS FAR AT HEWANORRA......41.1 MM.
AT GFL CHARLES....40.9 MM.

WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHTS RECORDED 4 MILES OR 6 KM NORTH OF ST. LUCIA.
AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHT IN PAST 3 HOURS...7.0 FEET OR 2.1 METRES.
MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT IN PAST 6 HOURS...10.5 FEET OR 3.2 METRES.

SUNSET TODAY...6:32 PM.......SUNRISE TOMORROW...5:38 AM.

FORECAST FOR SAINT LUCIA VALID FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS.....EASTERLY NEAR 20 MPH OR 32 KM/H.
WEATHER...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SEAS IN A 25 MILE OR 40 KM RADIUS FROM ST. LUCIA.
TIDES FOR CASTRIES HARBOUR...LOW AT 9:28 AM....HIGH AT 3:55 PM.
TIDES FOR VIEUX FORT BAY.....LOW AT 10:55 AM...HIGH AT 5:02 PM.
SEAS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH WITH WAVES 6 TO 8 FEET OR 1.8 TO 2.4 METRES.
SMALLCRAFT OPERATORS AND SEA BATHERS ARE ADVISED TOEXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SEAS.

OUTLOOK FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

[Gustywind]

Antigua & Barbuda National Forecast

Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Monday 10th June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F

Scattered showers

Synopsis: High pressure will keep a stable atmosphere over the northeast Caribbean. But a moderate trade wind will transport some pockets of moisture across the islands today and tonight.

Today : Partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers

Tonight: fair to partly cloudy with isolated showers

Winds: East 12 - 14 Kts reaching 17 Kts over coastal waters.

Seas: Slight to moderate waves 4 - 5 Ft or 1.2 - 1.5 M.

Barometric Pressure: Above normal.

Rainfall to date for the month of June: 12.2 mm/0.48 inches

Sunset today: 6:41 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:32 am.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1216 PM AST SUN JUN 9 2013

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. A FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS NW PR. WEATHER
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST...AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN JUN 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE WEST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST AND
WILL HOLD STEADY ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY JUST NORTH NORTHWEST OF
HISPANIOLA...BY WEDNESDAY IT WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFFECTING MOSTLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES FOR TOMORROW AND THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCREASING EVEN MORE ON FRIDAY TO ABOUT 2.2 INCHES AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...THETA-E AT 850MB IS TO INCREASE AS WELL
TO AROUND 340 ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THIS MEANS THAT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK. DRIER AIR MAY COME IN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THIS IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SAHARAN DUST THAT IS
ALSO MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 09/21Z. AFT 10/06Z...PASSING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. LOW
LEVEL WINDS ESE 10-20 KT BECOMING E TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 20 30 10 30
STT 78 88 78 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST SUN JUN 9 2013

.UPDATE...SOUNDING FOR 10/00Z AT SAN JUAN WAS VERY SIMILAR TO
THAT OF 09/12Z EXCEPT THAT WINDS BETWEEN 1 AND 15 KFT HAVE BACKED
BETWEEN 30 AND 60 DEGREES AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE MAINLAND.
INCREASING SHOWERS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON THE DUAL POL NEXRAD
ABOUT 130 MILES OUT. RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WERE RAISED A SLIGHT
AMOUNT...BUT EXPECT TO SEE THESE SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT
FOR ONE MINOR ADJUSTMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE BETTER ON
FRIDAY THAN TOMORROW...MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE MONDAY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS
TIME. ALSO THE EVENT ON FRIDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE COMING
WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRIER.