Florida Weather

[Taffy]

So that front will impact SW Florida later this week. Good. Rain is needed here in LEE County.

[psyclone]

It is raining here lightly but in keeping with climo prospects for appreciable QPF over the next week outside of northern florida appear low. Increasingly warm and dry weather is most likely on the docket

[psyclone]

Those CPC outlooks are also back to running warm. At this point for Florida folks we can go ahead with our 200 day outlook. It's going to be reliably warm or hot from now through Halloween.

[TheStormExpert]

Getting that Quasi-Rainy Season action again this afternoon! Also there was a waterspout off Jupiter Island around 5pm late this afternoon.

[arekkusu]

I wonder if there will be enough instability on Friday to where we will see some stronger storms again, particularly in northeast FL.



Bear with me, as I have next to no idea what I am doing. If I am looking at it properly, GFS predicts CAPE values around at least 1,000 J for a lot of north/north central FL during Day 4. I can't recall any time recently where instability was forecast to be that high up here. It's still a few days out, so I'm sure it's subject to change.

[Patrick99]

Those CPC outlooks are also back to running warm. At this point for Florida folks we can go ahead with our 200 day outlook. It's going to be reliably warm or hot from now through Halloween.

Yep, the only question day in and day out is going to be whether it rains or not.

[Lexicals]

Currently under a tornado/severe thunderstorm warning here in Martin County. At least it was beautiful weather this morning at the beach for a little while

[AdamFirst]

Tornado-warned cell pushing through western Martin County...strong thunderstorms surrounding the area. Wasn't expecting this kind of activity today

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 PM EDT TUE APR 2 2019

FLC085-021915-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190402T1915Z/
Martin FL-
250 PM EDT TUE APR 2 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

At 248 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles southwest of Indiantown, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Indiantown around 300 PM EDT.

[TheStormExpert]

Currently getting SLAMMED here in NE PBC!

[arekkusu]

Yikes about the tornado warned storm. Also, I do remember PBC was under severe t-storm warning a few hrs back and the nearby waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach were also under marine warning for possible waterspouts / gale-force wind gusts.

You all are right about this activity being unexpected; most of the state was actually under marginal convective risk for a few days, then the marginal risk was downsized to exclude the southernmost parts of FL, and finally, it was scrapped altogether and replaced with a general t-storm outlook. Reminds me of that one day back in November where the southeastern part of NWS Jacksonville's coverage area was hit with a few nasty storms out of nowhere late at night, and just like what happened today, we did see a tornado-warned storm in St. Johns County without the area being under any sort of elevated risk for severe weather.

The activity doesn't seem to be over; I can see a special marine-warned t-storm just chilling offshore from Palm Beach right now.

EDIT: Looks like the storm about 35 nm from Palm Beach is showing a bit of rotation:

[TheStormExpert]

I honesty think a tornado moved through a good chunk of Palm Beach Gardens late this afternoon. There was also reports of a waterspout in Riviera Beach near the port of Palm Beach which was likely connected to the potential tornado.

Damage and debris very well resembles what Hurricane Irma left behind here in September 2017 (equivalent of a Cat.1 hurricane).

[northjaxpro]

The temp has bottomed out at a nice, cool 42.3 degrees here for the morning low this morning. I have thoroughly enjoyed the cool weather we had in March and into this start of April.

Today will be fabulous with sunshine and max temps in the low 70s. This is the type of day I wish we could bottle up forever!! Perfect weather for yours truly for today.

But, our run of cool weather in our area will be coming to an end for good until late October. We will begin a pattern in which we get temps up into the 80s with increased humidity and seabreeze induced showers and storms across the peninsula starting Friday into this weekend.

[psyclone]

It's in the low 70's here with dewpoints in the low 50's. If only we could lock this in for an extended period of time...

[Patrick99]

Periodic heavy rain this AM in Miami. I like it.....it was getting dry and pollen-y, things (like my car) needed a good wash-down.

[psyclone]

A definite sign of deep moisture moving north. we should see a good chance of seabreeze driven showers with daytime heating on the west coast south of tampa bay later today. Things are heating up

[arekkusu]

The Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk that was originally just over the panhandle has been expanded to include most of south Georgia up to Charlton County, and parts of north Florida from the panhandle to around Columbia County.

Not sure what kind of weather is possible in my part of northeast FL (about 20 mi. south of Jacksonville) or in Gainesville, but I'm hoping it's not too bad.

[Taffy]

Not holding my breath for rain in Lee County, SW FLA. Lehigh Acres in particular. The clouds darken but float on by. Pollen is high.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems are transition from the dry season to the wet season is gradually underway. Fronts are now unsuccessfully making it through the state of Florida and the quasi-rainy season that we’ve seen in multiple Aprils past is seemingly starting to makes its presence.

[arekkusu]

Jeez, poor central FL people can't seem to catch a break, and once again, on a general t-stm day.

[AdamFirst]

That storm passed over me today. I was outside the "severe" zone - strong gusts broke branches and blew over trampolines just to my west. Hail was also reported - I believe dime-sized. The storm was severe warned as it drifted south for hours from northern St. Lucie County to western Palm Beach County.

 https://twitter.com/CBS12/status/1114316790123892738