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TheStormExpert

Re: Florida Weather

#14321 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:52 pm

:uarrow: This is pretty reminiscent of what occurred here in Palm Beach Gardens on Tuesday afternoon, only worse looking! :eek:

I’ve noticed that the East Coast of FL has seen some type of severe weather with hail, strong winds, etc. with each approaching front over the past few weeks, any idea why?

 https://twitter.com/stormmaster17/status/1113231130214506501




Here’s my experience of Tuesday’s severe thunderstorm, at the end you can hear marble-sized hail starting to pelt my windshield as I was looking to take better cover.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14322 Postby psyclone » Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:35 am

:uarrow: Nice capture of what I refer to as "the car wash effect". No afternoon storm here but I could see convective cauliflower towers building inland yesterday. Convective season is upon us and I just love watching storms do their thing
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Re: Florida Weather

#14323 Postby arekkusu » Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:03 pm

Some interesting weather has begun within the last hour in NE FL/SE GA. Currently, a thunderstorm capable of winds around 45 mph is developing in inland St. Johns County and looks like it's getting worse; this thunderstorm seems to be a part of a cluster of storms throughout St. Johns, Flagler, and Putnam Counties that are developing as I type this. Another strong thunderstorm has been developing along the Citrus-Marion County line for about 40 minutes now and appears to be very slowly tracking southeast.

EDIT: Flagler, Putnam, and Marion got hit very hard by whatever was going on today: golf ball sized hail was reported in Flagler County and there were several reports of large hail and even a funnel cloud in and around Ocala.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14324 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:10 pm

:uarrow: Yes indeed, the seabreeze-induced thunderstorms developed as anticipated across the area today. It truly was the first summer-like day we have had in terms of afternoon thunderstorms breaking out , along with the heat and increased humidity. The summer-like pattern of heat and humidity, and scattered thunderstorms practically each day is in place for sure now going forward.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14325 Postby arekkusu » Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:27 pm

This is a lot like summer. The weather today reminds me of last July, which was active in terms of severe weather, if I recall correctly, but I guess that's par for the course in Florida.

About my last post, I wrote it as if the strong/severe weather were over, but as I type this from my home in northeast Clay County, it appears as if a strengthening cluster of thunderstorms capable of 45+ mph wind gusts and small hail is heading my way and I'm hearing some loud thunder for the first time in a while.

EDIT: northjaxpro, it looks like you are probably having some problems right now as well, since there's a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for what I think is your immediate area.
Last edited by arekkusu on Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14326 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:41 pm

Yeah, getting some thunder here at my home in northern Duval currently and some moderate rain. Today"s high was 87 degrees.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14327 Postby NDG » Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:19 pm

Very summer like this evening in the Orlando area with evening thunderstorms about to move in.
It never fails with El Ninos that we get an unusual wet April which usually tends to be one of the driest months of the year before the usual summer wet season kicks in later in May.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14328 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:32 pm

arekkusu wrote:This is a lot like summer. The weather today reminds me of last July, which was active in terms of severe weather, if I recall correctly, but I guess that's par for the course in Florida.

About my last post, I wrote it as if the strong/severe weather were over, but as I type this from my home in northeast Clay County, it appears as if a strengthening cluster of thunderstorms capable of 45+ mph wind gusts and small hail is heading my way and I'm hearing some loud thunder for the first time in a while.

EDIT: northjaxpro, it looks like you are probably having some problems right now as well, since there's a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for what I think is your immediate area.


Just had a heavy thundershower move over my locale. Typical late afternoon and evening activity we see during the rainy season. This is just an early preview of what is to come Arekkusu.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14329 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:38 pm

NDG wrote:Very summer like this evening in the Orlando area with evening thunderstorms about to move in.
It never fails with El Ninos that we get an unusual wet April which usually tends to be one of the driest months of the year before the usual summer wet season kicks in later in May.

What would be the reason behind this?
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Re: Florida Weather

#14330 Postby MetroMike » Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:06 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:Very summer like this evening in the Orlando area with evening thunderstorms about to move in.
It never fails with El Ninos that we get an unusual wet April which usually tends to be one of the driest months of the year before the usual summer wet season kicks in later in May.

What would be the reason behind this?

Boundry collisions of airmass induced convection. Not as pronounced as it would be in say July though.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14331 Postby gatorcane » Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:50 pm

Send some rain this way. Things are getting crispy here around my locale along coastal SE Palm Beach County. Today featured a pretty steady east wind flow with patches of cumulus moving in reminiscent of deep summer steering. I saw that convection up north in the distance in Palm Beach Gardens the other day but nothing around here. Looks like rain chances go up for a Tuesday.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14332 Postby arekkusu » Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:49 am

If the weather was that bad on just a regular thunderstorm day, I can't imagine what will happen on days where a nonzero chance of severe weather is actually forecast (like tomorrow and Tuesday, in particular). I have a feeling that I will be met with an unpleasant surprise tomorrow afternoon while driving back home from campus.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14333 Postby psyclone » Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:35 pm

It's way too early for persistent diurnally driven convection. For much of Florida April is the spring equivalent of November...residing within a no man's land where we're often out of reach of both mid latitude forcing and seabreeze activity. Either is a stretch which often means dry/sunny and warm conditions. If anything we should expect an increase in wildfire activity between now and the onset of summer convective season which tend to set up from mid May to mid June depending on location.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14334 Postby arekkusu » Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:37 am

Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into Tuesday most of north FL. I'm hoping I can get home safely before it hits; it's bad enough having to deal with other people on the road, but throw in severe weather and the process becomes a lot more annoying.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14335 Postby chaser1 » Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:23 pm

MetroMike wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:Very summer like this evening in the Orlando area with evening thunderstorms about to move in.
It never fails with El Ninos that we get an unusual wet April which usually tends to be one of the driest months of the year before the usual summer wet season kicks in later in May.

What would be the reason behind this?

Boundry collisions of airmass induced convection. Not as pronounced as it would be in say July though.


What I find especially cool but somewhat odd at the same time, are those secondary boundary collisions that on occasion cause "post-diurnal" isolated thunderstorms to re-form during those particular evenings where conditions are just right. They're kind of like "bonus storms" :lol: I certainly don't remember experiencing them that often when I used to live down south in Miami and Pembroke Pines years ago. On the other hand I certainly DO remember seeing new storm cells often reform once having moved offshore and either just off the coastline or perhaps over the Gulf-stream. Now living in the Orlando area, I've come to find these type of localized flare up's significantly more common. Maybe because of left-over outflow boundaries from other cells that might have lost most of their energy with the loss of afternoon heating, that later clashed with an evening resurgence of onshore moisture from the E. Coast? I have to admit it's a neat rush when I happen to be outside during those early evening hours after earlier prior convective activity had already died off and there's just some hard to explain sensation that a new cell might be about to pop. I can only describe it as some eerie stillness while meanwhile the sky appears mostly filled with an undulating and fairly dense cloud cover. The air feels completely saturated yet practically motionless and then suddenly that first wisp of breeze and then that low but not too distant rumble of thunder. Then if lucky, having the newly forming storm cell nearly stationary and building practically overhead as subsequent lightning and thunder suddenly become more pronounced and increase in their frequency. At least to me, it seems like these secondary boundary layer collision storms that occur during the evenings are also slower to move too.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14336 Postby chaser1 » Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:29 pm

arekkusu wrote:Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into Tuesday most of north FL. I'm hoping I can get home safely before it hits; it's bad enough having to deal with other people on the road, but throw in severe weather and the process becomes a lot more annoying.


From a quick look at the GFS, i'd say much of South, Central, and North Florida look to be at risk of strong (or possible isolated severe) storms tomorrow. I'd guess the greatest chances however would be inland/middle of the state and eastward toward the coast.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14337 Postby psyclone » Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:43 pm

Pretty decent arc of showers and thunder steaming across the eastern gulf. All the forecasts indicate this runs out of gas before it reaches the coast but we had a similar situation last week and all the short term models and forecasts ended up incorrect. It's a good reminder that as good as things are wrt short term forecasts it still pays to step away from screens and look out the window. Here's to hoping for some rain cooled air even if the rain fizzles.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14338 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:51 pm

psyclone wrote:Pretty decent arc of showers and thunder steaming across the eastern gulf. All the forecasts indicate this runs out of gas before it reaches the coast but we had a similar situation last week and all the short term models and forecasts ended up incorrect. It's a good reminder that as good as things are wrt short term forecasts it still pays to step away from screens and look out the window. Here's to hoping for some rain cooled air even if the rain fizzles.


Yeah, these storms have not only maintained but appear to have strengthened on radar over the past hour. We'll still see what the cooler shelf waters at the coast do to them, but rain of some kind appears to be on the way earlier than forecast.
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Re: Florida Weather

#14339 Postby psyclone » Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:57 pm

The radar is interesting today. right now we have:
A.) seabreeze action on both coasts
B.) our convective arc over the gulf that is steadily drawing closer to the coast
C.) a pretty decent chaff storm over south florida moving northeastward

2 out of three are legit precip events during what is typically among the driest times of the year so that's decent...and we have mid latitude induced storm potential on the docket tomorrow too. good stuff
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Re: Florida Weather

#14340 Postby arekkusu » Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:48 pm

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
446 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

FLZ024-025-032-033-082145-
Inland Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-Clay FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
446 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU...
NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS...CLAY AND CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

* At 441 PM EDT, gusty showers and developing thunderstorms will
impact the Jacksonville metro area over the next few hours. Winds
in shower activity are gusting between 35 and 45 mph.

* Strong to severe thudnerstorms are expected over the next several
areas across the Jacksonville metro area. At this time, as
thunderstorms develop, small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph
will be possible from stronger activity. Localized heavy rainfall
will cause minor flooding and visbility restrictions during the
evening commute. Stay tuned for potential warnings.

* Locations impacted include...
Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, Keystone Heights, Callahan,
Jacksonville International Arpt, Mandarin, Fruit Cove, Middleburg,
World Golf Village and Cisco Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2977 8154 2984 8158 2984 8181 2980 8186
2979 8191 2975 8194 2972 8205 3036 8205
3060 8187 3066 8166 3051 8163 3032 8168
3031 8165 3020 8156 3016 8155 3010 8150
3004 8149 2991 8141 2980 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 240DEG 49KT 3034 8175

-----


Sounds like a great time. Can't wait!
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