Texas Fall-2015

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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1441 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:DFW only needs 1.87" for 2nd wettest October

and I never even noticed 1963 was the warmest October on record and I've looked at that October climo so much lately. :lol:


I'll take a 1963 redux even if it means a warm November. Who doesn't want a foot of snow and single digits?! With 60+ freezes


No objections here lol :jump:

Is it just me or are the hi-res models showing a lot more rain tomorrow around DFW than forecast? Interesting trend possibly
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1442 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:16 pm

Brent wrote:DFW only needs 1.87" for 2nd wettest October

and I never even noticed 1963 was the warmest October on record and I've looked at that October climo so much lately. :lol:


It was also El Nino, a weak one.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1443 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:45 pm

Brent wrote:Is it just me or are the hi-res models showing a lot more rain tomorrow around DFW than forecast? Interesting trend possibly


The high rainfall totals are not far away at all. I mean a county or two shift over and it's 3-5". Where stuff sits can make a huge difference.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1444 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 29, 2015 11:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:Is it just me or are the hi-res models showing a lot more rain tomorrow around DFW than forecast? Interesting trend possibly


The high rainfall totals are not far away at all. I mean a county or two shift over and it's 3-5". Where stuff sits can make a huge difference.


The HRRR is very wet and this is just at Noon:

Image
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1445 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Fri Oct 30, 2015 2:44 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:Is it just me or are the hi-res models showing a lot more rain tomorrow around DFW than forecast? Interesting trend possibly


The high rainfall totals are not far away at all. I mean a county or two shift over and it's 3-5". Where stuff sits can make a huge difference.


The HRRR is very wet and this is just at Noon:

Image

I just noticed this as well. HRRR develops more rain in No Tx in advance of the main squall line which starts to develop at the end of the model run.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1446 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Oct 30, 2015 4:04 am

Very heavy rainfall is now moving into Austin and San Antonio. I wouldn't be surprised to see some localized street flooding as this band of showers and thunderstorms moves through.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1447 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Oct 30, 2015 7:57 am

Tornado reported on the ground near San Marcos.
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#1448 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:24 am

Image
photo hosting

This was said to be a car, looks like it could just be a trailer. If it were to be a car it would take an EF-3 tornado at least to get it up there right?
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#1449 Postby gboudx » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:27 am

Where was that pic taken?

From jeff:

Rainfall this morning has averaged 4-6 inches from N of San Antonio to SW of Austin or across much of central and western Hays County and the Blanco River and Comal River watersheds.

The Blanco River at Wimberley, TX has begun a very rapid rise. The Blanco River is expected to rise 11ft in the next hour.

A major flash flood is likely on the Comal River and the Guadalupe River at New Bransfels. The Comal River is expected to rise 23ft in the next few hours…this is a very dangerous flash flood situation.

River Flood Forecasts:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

A Tornado outbreak is also ongoing with numerous confirmed tornadoes producing damage between San Antonio and Austin.
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#1450 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:29 am

Rough morning in central and south Texas. Jet streak above is quite strong. Stay safe guys.

Some HI RES guidance goes supercell mode later today down there.
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Re:

#1451 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:39 am

Ntxw wrote:Rough morning in central and south Texas. Jet streak above is quite strong. Stay safe guys.

Some HI RES guidance goes supercell mode later today down there.



Yeah I was noticing that too. There is a lot of shear down here right now. SRH values very high (lots of spin in the atmosphere).

Flash Flood Emergency is now in effect between Austin and San Antonio.
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#1452 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:54 am

Nice little couplet south of Austin on the Base Velocity, I would take shelter if I were in the Southern Part of Austin.
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#1453 Postby dhweather » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:56 am

Austin metro under a Tornado WARNING
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1454 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:58 am

TORNADO WARNING
TXC055-209-453-301415-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0048.151030T1348Z-151030T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
848 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 847 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MUSTANG RIDGE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TANGLEWOOD FOREST...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
AUSTIN AND BUDA AROUND 855 AM CDT.
ONION CREEK AROUND 905 AM CDT.
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...TANGLEWOOD FOREST AND SHADY HOLLOW AROUND
910 AM CDT.
WEST LAKE HILLS AND ROLLINGWOOD AROUND 915 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DEL
VALLE...MAHA...PILOT KNOB...LOST CREEK...SUNSET VALLEY...MENDOZA...
CREEDMOOR...MANCHACA AND SAN LEANNA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Re:

#1455 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:00 am

gboudx wrote:Where was that pic taken?

From jeff:

Rainfall this morning has averaged 4-6 inches from N of San Antonio to SW of Austin or across much of central and western Hays County and the Blanco River and Comal River watersheds.

The Blanco River at Wimberley, TX has begun a very rapid rise. The Blanco River is expected to rise 11ft in the next hour.

A major flash flood is likely on the Comal River and the Guadalupe River at New Bransfels. The Comal River is expected to rise 23ft in the next few hours…this is a very dangerous flash flood situation.

River Flood Forecasts:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

A Tornado outbreak is also ongoing with numerous confirmed tornadoes producing damage between San Antonio and Austin.


It's raining pretty hard in those watersheds. They probably are experiencing dramatic rises much like it did there in the spring. The terrain of the region must promote very fast rises with a short period of time.
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Re:

#1456 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:07 am

gboudx wrote:Where was that pic taken?

From jeff:

Rainfall this morning has averaged 4-6 inches from N of San Antonio to SW of Austin or across much of central and western Hays County and the Blanco River and Comal River watersheds.

The Blanco River at Wimberley, TX has begun a very rapid rise. The Blanco River is expected to rise 11ft in the next hour.

A major flash flood is likely on the Comal River and the Guadalupe River at New Bransfels. The Comal River is expected to rise 23ft in the next few hours…this is a very dangerous flash flood situation.

River Flood Forecasts:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/



A Tornado outbreak is also ongoing with numerous confirmed tornadoes producing damage between San Antonio and Austin.



Pic was taken in Floresville
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#1457 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:10 am

Looks like the rotation south of Austin has weakened, but people should stay alert as it could try to reorganize.
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1458 Postby dhweather » Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:14 am

Images taken from Twitter in the Floresville area. Seeing tweets about the high school being damaged as well.


Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall-2015

#1459 Postby dhweather » Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:17 am

Other side of the Holiday Inn express with a trailer on the roof.

Image
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Re:

#1460 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:18 am

TheProfessor wrote:This was said to be a car, looks like it could just be a trailer. If it were to be a car it would take an EF-3 tornado at least to get it up there right?


Looks like EF 2. Remember April 2012 the flying J in Dallas? Doesn't take much to lift those things very high up.
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