STORM2K

Flash flood watches issued for the metros and west

Some thundershowers have formed west of DFW and are moving slow. They are also putting down near 2"hr rain rates seeing from radar

Any idea if those storms will make to the metroplex later this afternoon? Or the storms off to the southwest?

gboudx wrote:Any idea if those storms will make to the metroplex later this afternoon? Or the storms off to the southwest?

SLGT risk just went up for the metro and the hi-res models do have that batch of storms off to the west in the metro towards evening rush.

A lot of central Texas lakes are releasing more water including Lake Travis. Several are closed due to high water more will be as the week progresses. A lot of what happened to the northern Texas lakes last year is happening this year down there. Could hurt summer businesses along their banks. Busy times for the army corps.

From the Holler....HGX AFD .......

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311550
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1050 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning surface analysis has a cold front pushing through
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. This front should slide into north
Texas and stall just south of the Red River tomorrow. Higher
moisture axis exists to the west with 12Z CRP sounding showing 2
inches of precipitable water and 12Z LCH sounding showing 1.2
inches. Any thunderstorm activity today should develop west of
Houston within the higher moisture axis. Storms may move into the
region later today. Earlier WRF runs and the Tx Tech WRF were
suggesting this possibility. Overall think the forecast is on
track and will continue to monitor hi-res model runs for any
changes. Main concern will still be for the end of the week with
the heavy rainfall potential. If forecast trends continue we may
need to issue a flash flood watch for the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 71 84 70 82 / 30 30 60 70 70
Houston (IAH) 87 71 86 71 84 / 20 10 50 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 84 76 84 75 84 / 10 10 30 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39

The storms by Mineral Wells and Brownwood have merged creating an almost single line slowly heading this way.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311810
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
Did not make a lot of changes with the 18Z TAFS...especially for
the near term. While there are questions concerning moisture av-
ailability (see 12Z LCH/CRP soundings), feeling more comfortable
with keeping the mention of VCTS for most sites for the remaind-
er of this aftn. Continued development to our west combined with
daytime heating and the seabreeze are all factors we are keeping
an eye on. For tonight, will also keep with lower CIGS vs. lower
VIS given the slowly deepening/strengthening onshore winds. Will
also keep with a VCTS for tomorrow afternoon. 41

Just went out and bought some Quick Dam flood prevention packets. I don't need another disaster!! we had a 5 inch rain late Sunday after a storm stalled over us and it did a number on our wood floors......

EnnisTx wrote:Just went out and bought some Quick Dam flood prevention packets. I don't need another disaster!! we had a 5 inch rain late Sunday after a storm stalled over us and it did a number on our wood floors......

Oh man!! Now that sucks!!!
Finding out about these flood prevention barriers may have just saved me mega bucks!! Glad I saw this!!

Looks like the Metroplex is about to get dumped on.

Kind of an ominous discussion from EWX in the afternoon package.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 312028
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
328 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The first of many heavy rain episodes and storm complexes is
currently passing through the CWA. The evolution of this system,
which is a combination of high instability, high PWAT, mesocale
boundary interactions, and upper level shortwave disturbances will
be indicative of the next few days.

Hi-resolution models have been essentially guessing at how to
handle convective initiation and coverage over the last several
days...and with the exception of a decent HRRR handling of today`s
activity, have not improved. Thus, basically the forecast has
heavily favored the synoptic models in conjunction with
collaboration with neighbors and regional offices.

Looking west of the current convection...IR satellite is showing
convection enhancing across New Mexico and south of the Big Bend
region. Believe this area will be round number 2 of heavy rain
potential overnight tonight. While this round will not have the
benefit of the higher instability from this afternoon, and a
somewhat worked over atmosphere, would expect this activity out
west to evolve into a mature MCS and move east into at least the
western half of the CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning.

There may be a lull in activity between the Wednesday morning
activity but it will likely only be brief as the atmosphere
destabilizes again into the afternoon and yet another shortwave
swings northeast across...again...the Big Bend and Edwards
Plateau.

It is extremely difficult to hone in on specific amounts
in any particular region, but given the antecedent conditions that
have been well advertised, the flash flooding risk will be
significant between now and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The heavy rain and flooding threats continue Thursday as the main
upper low responsible for all of these shortwave disturbances
enters the state. By Thursday morning, focused upper level lift
associated with the right entrance region of the upper low will be
positioned from Del Rio to Waco. This, coupled with the same
moisture and instability considersations to today and Wednesday
will likely be our most significant heavy rainfall threat.

At the surface, the EURO and GFS both indicate the development of
a surface low over West Texas and pushes southeast along the Rio
Grande River. This will...yet again...provide a surface based
focus to additional heavy rain development Thursday afternoon and
as the main upper low begins to slow in its movement and becomes
more stagnant, could potentially result in training heavy rainfall
as well. This round could persist through Friday morning before
the heavy rain potential begins to finally wane Friday
evening...if the upper low does indeed move east as progged.

As a result...QPF values have further increased, now expected the
potential for 4-7 inches between now and Friday morning but with
the potential for some areas to reach as high as 15 inches before
this event is over with. If this estimate comes to fruition, flash
flooding impacts will be severe.And with so much uncertainty in
the positioning of certain variables, it is not possible to
highlight any one particular area for this threat. [b]So all persons
in South Central Texas should prepare for the prospect of flash
flooding, perhaps extreme flash flooding, and make plans to be
potentially impacted.\

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Another spring in the books. Very wet for most. Discussions moving over to the summer thread. Thank you all for your continuous productive input into these threads!