STORM2K

Iceresistance wrote:Sever Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, the hazards are 60 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized hail

What a way to end this boring hot month

Also glad to see the hi res models were wrong about it splitting around the metro

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Sever Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, the hazards are 60 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized hail

What a way to end this boring hot month

Also glad to see the hi res models were wrong about it splitting around the metro

Enjoy that severe warning

Missed out on the heavy stuff here but I'm fine with that since I have to walk out there

Weather Dude wrote:

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Sever Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, the hazards are 60 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized hail

What a way to end this boring hot month

Also glad to see the hi res models were wrong about it splitting around the metro

Enjoy that severe warning

Missed out on the heavy stuff here but I'm fine with that since I have to walk out there

Perfect timing with the state fair downtown which opened at noon

"Considerable" Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, now 70 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized Hail

Well well well, look what we have here


Certainly could be an interesting week next week, of course it's a week out so it could totally change. Models usually move the trough through too quickly so we would likely be looking at 10/13 as the target date for now, which could obviously change as we get closer.

The last few years have produced some solid late-season Oct/Nov events in the plains. Let's see if this is another one.

This likely won't be anything huge, but for Oct standards this could be solid.

EDIT: That is one heck of a dryline

Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk

Weather Dude wrote:Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk

And Day 5 as well!

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk

And Day 5 as well!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/day5prob.gif

Yeah I'm heading home this weekend and I'll be driving back Sunday evening (it's only 2.5 hours) so hopefully I won't have to drive through anything nasty. But then again if I do, I could chase it, unless it's dark

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk

And Day 5 as well!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/day5prob.gif

Yeah I'm heading home this weekend and I'll be driving back Sunday evening (it's only 2.5 hours) so hopefully I won't have to drive through anything nasty. But then again if I do, I could chase it, unless it's dark

Perhaps you can chase it on the way home?

That is one heck of a trough on the 12z GFS my goodness...

I'm a little skeptical since it's Oct and not May and the last Day 7 slight risk we had here back in April looked like a huge event at first but the models backed off as it got closer. If the models keep showing this though then I'll get more excited

Lucky y’all. I’m over here getting a light drizzle all the time.

I found this 12z GFS sounding for Next Wednesday's setup near Tecumseh, OK

I'm wondering if the potential EPAC hurricane could feed extra moisture into this potential setup. The GFS shows this possibility and gets the dew points in the 70 range in some areas on Tuesday.

Also we might be able to thank Typhoon Mindulle for playing a part in this potentially active severe weather period.

The 12z Euro model is later (Thursday), but that dry line . . .

Although Tuesday looks like it could be the big one (as of right now), don't sleep on Sunday's event. Models have uptrended today, showing better moisture. Could be a close call as to whether that moisture ends up getting here in time, but if it does, Sunday could get interesting.

Looks to me like Sunday will be a tail-end charley event for the dfw area and the main event in Oklahoma. If that euro is right then Sunday is definitely just the warmup. 70 dewpoints along i35 up to Ardmore, yikes…

Enhanced Risk for Sunday, my Aunt lives in the Enhanced risk zone in Ada, OK



Still a broad Slight for Next Tuesday

Sunday is starting to look pretty big time, especially for the enhanced risk area. Wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk at some point, especially if the moisture ends up getting there earlier than currently shown.

I'm a little iffy about Tuesday, especially since the Euro shows the trough moving through slower than the GFS. If the GFS verifies, then it could be a big event. If the Euro verifies, it would likely be an overnight slop fest with a threat for severe weather further east on Wednesday. And considering the troughs almost always come through slower than forecast, I'm unfortunately gonna have to lean towards the Euro for now. Maybe it will change we'll see still a long ways out.

12km nam is a lot further south than the gfs, with the low near the red river. Granted this is just barely in range of the model, so I expect it to correct in future runs.

12z Euro gets the severe threat on Sunday a little farther north and west than the GFS does. It also favors Wednesday further east instead of Tuesday for the second event.

12z GFS still has a big one for Tuesday.