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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:31 pm
by harp
Iceresistance wrote:If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.
Explain please
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:40 pm
by Iceresistance
harp wrote:Iceresistance wrote:If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.
Explain please
-PNA favors cold in the west with a NW Trough and SE Ridge, positive PNA features the Eastern Trough and NW Ridge, the cold air is more likely to be dumped in the Eastern United States.
The Neutral PNA allows the cold air to be dumped in the Central USA, the most favorable setup regiment for us for cold air is the Neutral PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:27 pm
by bubba hotep
It's going to be a stormy night across Texas
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:37 pm
by gpsnowman
Saturday could be a soaker. The cold will come with one these systems down the road into winter and then watch out. I hope.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:41 pm
by Iceresistance
The GFS is too inconsistent after this month, different solutions every run!
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:25 am
by harp
The GFS is probably the most inconsistent that I can recall in a long time. After 160 or so hours it’s been all over the place. Frustrating.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:22 am
by TropicalTundra
Mid 50's and light rain here. Low pressure is setting up in the gulf which should make for some decent storms for a good while. Already recorded about 2 1/3 of rain from all these storms
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 9:31 am
by Iceresistance
The rain is really coming down now.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:26 am
by bubba hotep
GFS looks to stay active with multiple storm systems impacting the Southern Plains over the next two weeks.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:33 am
by bubba hotep
DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:55 am
by Iceresistance
bubba hotep wrote:DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.
That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:58 am
by bubba hotep
Iceresistance wrote:bubba hotep wrote:DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.
That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!
Obviously, the big storm in August helped this, which is odd b/c August is typically our driest month. However, the flip for Oct/Nov has been very impressive, and the Euro Weeklies look to keep the wet pattern going into January.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:00 pm
by Ntxw
bubba hotep wrote:Iceresistance wrote:bubba hotep wrote:DFW is officially above normal for yearly rainfall, and this is now the 3rd wettest Nov since 2020. Also, DFW is now almost 2" above average for the period starting Sept 1, after only picking up 0.33" in Sept.
That is likely one of the greatest rainfall comebacks I have ever seen! 2022 would be a story to remember!
Obviously, the big storm in August helped this, which is odd b/c August is typically our driest month. However, the flip for Oct/Nov has been very impressive, and the Euro Weeklies look to keep the wet pattern going into January.
Best guess the next couple of months the atmosphere will have tendencies of a growing El Nino.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:50 pm
by Iceresistance
Rain gauge shows 1.1 inches since early this morning!
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:30 pm
by Iceresistance
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 1:45 pm
by Itryatgolf
The million dollar question is getting it timed with enough cold and moisture, which is tough in the southern Plains and mid south
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:30 pm
by harp
As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 2:40 pm
by Cpv17
harp wrote:As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.
Remember, cold shallow air is very dense. Once it gets rolling, it’s hard to stop it. The models don’t handle these scenarios well.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:18 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
This is incredible, thank you!
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:20 pm
by Brent
Itryatgolf wrote:The million dollar question is getting it timed with enough cold and moisture, which is tough in the southern Plains and mid south
I mean there's never guarantees but I'd much rather have this wet pattern we appear to be getting into... The cold will probably come sooner or later. Look at how many times it has snowed west of here already and it's only November(heck 2 flizzards here already). I never saw flakes before January last year