Texas Spring 2024

[snownado]

The hail threat looks to be high-end if storms can get going.

The story of 2024 for DFW (with emphasis on the bolded).

And unless my eyes are deceiving me the HRRR is trending less and less for DFW. Maybe the clouds are hanging around keeping temps in check?

Anyone else want to check me on that?

The 18z FWD sounding tells the story. Very strong capping remains as of this hour.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/24052418_OBS/


It's *PROJECTED* to quickly erode with initation happening eventually late this afternoon, but the CAMs can be too gung ho with that too.

That said, the SPC seems confident enough in their MCD just released that a watch will be needed soon...

[HockeyTx82]

You can see the dry line on the radar. It moving towards DFW and it's currently over lake bridgeport, north and south of that.

[snownado]

lol at the current radar so far (but it's still early)...

[HockeyTx82]

lol at the current radar so far (but it's still early)...

My thoughts are those storms down south of DFW did something to cause the storms to the west of DFW to have issues so far.

Anyone else have any ideas?

[rwfromkansas]

Well, that’s maybe it for the season for DFW. Nothing is really doing much.

[Cpv17]

Well, that’s maybe it for the season for DFW. Nothing is really doing much.

Nah man. Still too early, but the trend I’ve noticed lately is that the storms have either been north or south of DFW. Nothing seems to be forming near the city.

[bubba hotep]

First round of storms off the dryline seem to be really struggling. The dryline is still active and we will probably see several more attempts.

[bubba hotep]

The cell out near Boyd, TX, is one to watch for DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Well, that’s maybe it for the season for DFW. Nothing is really doing much.

12z Euro keeps it going. Most people forget, but June is usually a pretty active month for DFW. Then the dreaded July-August stretch slams us!

[rwfromkansas]

Well, that’s maybe it for the season for DFW. Nothing is really doing much.

12z Euro keeps it going. Most people forget, but June is usually a pretty active month for DFW. Then the dreaded July-August stretch slams us!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024052412/240/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Wow. I think I have been listening to Larry Cosgrove too much lately maybe. lol.

Denton does have a nasty cell.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m curious about the cell north of azle. If it manages to root into the surface and develop a stronger meso it could make a right turn and start diving into the metro. HRRR was hinting at that earlier today

[bubba hotep]

I’m curious about the cell north of azle. If it manages to root into the surface and develop a stronger meso it could make a right turn and start diving into the metro. HRRR was hinting at that earlier today

HRRR primarily showed cells moving SE, but so far, everything seems to be moving NE.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m curious about the cell north of azle. If it manages to root into the surface and develop a stronger meso it could make a right turn and start diving into the metro. HRRR was hinting at that earlier today

HRRR primarily showed cells moving SE, but so far, everything seems to be moving NE.

True, but none of them really developed prominent mesos. The tor warned cell on the red river is starting to dive, and so is the one out near granbury with the hook

[bubba hotep]

Denton cell collapsed with the quickness.

[Anti-freeze]

Both the Justin and the Granbury storms have effectively turned east and southeastwards, with a hook developing nw of Granbury.

Tor warn north of Gainesville.

[snownado]

Well, that’s maybe it for the season for DFW. Nothing is really doing much.

12z Euro keeps it going. Most people forget, but June is usually a pretty active month for DFW. Then the dreaded July-August stretch slams us!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024052412/240/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Please god, no. I can't take much more teasing.

I just want some nice summertime weather (meaning ample sunshine, blue skies and dry conditions) now.

[bubba hotep]

Both the Justin and the Granbury storms have effectively turned east and southeastwards, with a hook developing nw of Granbury.

Tor warn north of Gainesville.

Both of those cells just started really pushing overshooting tops.

ETA: Cell down near Ennis is really starting to go.

[HockeyTx82]

That cell heading towards Trophy Club is really ramping up and getting kind of hooky.

I can hear the thunder in Ponder.

[bubba hotep]

That cell heading towards Trophy Club is really ramping up and getting kind of hooky.

I can hear the thunder in Ponder.

Sure is.

[bubba hotep]

Nasty hail core on that Ennis cell!