Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave interacting with an upper trough will bring scattered showers to PR and adjacent islands starting on Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

Punta Cana forecast

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathe ... punta-cana

Antigua and Barbuda forecast

http://www.antiguamet.com/Climate/7-DAY ... recast.pdf

Cayman Islands forecast


Valid fOR THE MORNING Of JUNE 18th 2013

through the MORNING of JUNE 19th 2013.

SYNOPSIS:

The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression two.

At 4 a.m. Tropical depression Two was located near 17.0 N 89.4 W or about 30 miles east northeast of Tikal Guatemala and is moving west northwest near 8 mph with max sustained winds near 30 mph.

This depression poses no threat to the Cayman Islands.

Decreasing cloudiness is expected over the Cayman Islands from this morning as the weather associated with tropical depression 2 moves over the western Caribbean.

THE FORECAST:

Today: Cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers this morning becoming partly cloudy by this afternoon with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will rise to the low 90’s. Winds will be east 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.

TIDES:

Today: Low 11:33 a.m. High 6:33 p.m.

Tomorrow: Low 12:30 a.m. High 5:53 a.m. High 12:24 p.m. Low 7:19 p.m.

SUNSET: 7:06 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:48 a.m. Tomorrow. SUNSET: 7:06 p.m. Tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: is for similar weather conditions through Thursday morning.

FORECASTER

Ebanks

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF PR/USVI
ABOUT 22.5N SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST WILL INTERACT WITH A BROAD TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ANTILLES...MOVING WEST AT 25 KNOTS. IT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AMPLIFY THE WAVE.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ALONG AT 30 KNOTS. EAST OF THE LEEWARDS
AT 17Z-18Z A SHIP AND NEAR SURFACE GOES SATELLITE WINDS WERE
REPORTING 25-28 KT. THESE ARE CONCERN ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE WINDS
AND SEAS BY WED A LITTLE WHICH INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO 12Z GFS PUSHES 850-700 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 35
KT OVER TO NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI BY LATE WED. THIS IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY BEING GENERATED SUGGEST STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

DO NOT BELIEVE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT SINCE
GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY AND THIS WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY. HOWEVER
MUST ESPECIALLY WATCH THE SOUTHEAST PR COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW COULD
CAUSE PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS THERE...MOST LIKELY WED EVENING.

DRYING TO OCCUR THU MORNING AND WE RETURN TO RATHER DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST OF TONITE BUT SHRA/TSRA TO INCR LATE AND INTO
WED. SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON NR TJMZ WL CAUSE PDS MVFR MAYBE
IFR...OBSCD MTNS IN WEST PR. WIND BLO FL100 E 15-30 KT BCMG ESE
20-35 KT WED AFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED BUT BIGGER
CONCERN IS POSSIBLE HIGHER CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON WED/WED NIGHT. GUSTS TO 35-40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 60 60 20
STT 78 87 78 88 / 50 70 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING THRU THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTERACTS WITH TUTT TO THE
NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 68W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...BRINGING STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER
THE AREA. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO MEDIUM RANGE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO FLYING AREA. HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX IN SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES BY 19/12Z AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10-25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY ALOFT.

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AT 15UTC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 90.0W...WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 07KT. SEE NHC
FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 18/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...A NARROW TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/CENTRAL MEXICO TO A LOW SOUTH OF
GUERRERO SPLITS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN TWO CELLS. THE
WESTERNMOST EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA-NORTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE EASTERNMOST EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER GUATEMALA.
THROUGH 60-72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FILL...AND BY THEN THE
RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR TO
SOUTHERN OAXACA AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO...TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. THE
RIDGES...MEANWHILE...ARE TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM.

AT LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS TO TRACK ACROSS
GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE CAMPECHE SOUND. THE NHC FORECASTS
THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN ILL ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF. ACROSS THE YUCATAN IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. OVER
OAXACA-CHIAPAS-CAMPECHE...AS IT INTERACTS WITH TROUGH ALOFT...
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM
THROUGH 36 HRS. BY 36-60 HRS THIS IS TO DECREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ-OAXACA TO THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. THROUGH 72-96 HRS
THIS IS TO CONTINUE DECREASING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF A TUTT THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO THE BASIN. THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ RELATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE ALSO INTERACTING WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE/THE
GUIANAS. PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...MEANWHILE...LIE ON THE
CONVERGENT/ SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THE TROUGH IS TO HOLD
ITS GROUND DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. BUT BY 48-72 HRS...A
BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO DISPLACE THE TUTT
TO THE WEST...WITH AXIS TO RELOCATE TO HISPANIOLA-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES ARE TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN GRADUALLY ESTABLISHING THROUGH
42-48 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THE RETROGRESSING TROUGH
IS TO THEN ENHANCE VENTILATION ALOFT OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL DEPEND ON INTERACTION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE BASIN (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS). ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
ITCZ...THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT IS
TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE ITCZ IS TO MEANDER WEST ALONG 10N
ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ACROSS WESTERN
PANAMA-COSTA RICA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER EASTERN PANAMA EXPECT ACCUMULATION
OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CARIBBEAN TUTT.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
51W 56W 60W 64W 68W 71W 74W TW

TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 51W. THIS IS TO QUICKLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE GUIANAS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH 30-36
HRS. AS IT PHASES WITH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUTT...PWAT IS TO
INCREASE TO 40-50MM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. THROUGH 42-48
HRS MOISTURE SURGES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...AND THROUGH 60-72 HRS THIS WILL EXPAND TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS TO FOLLOW...WITH
PWAT DECREASING TO 30-35MM ON ITS WAKE. OVER NORTHERN GUYANA TO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IT IS TO THEN RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY...
WHILE OVER THE LEEWARD/FRENCH ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OVER PUERTO RICO TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. THROUGH 72 HRS THIS DECREASES TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS IT MOVES ACROSS HAITI. LATER
ON DAY 03...TO DAY 04...CONVECTION IS TO SPREAD TO JAMAICA WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT
IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will dominate the weather today in PR as a wave moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING
WILL RELOCATE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 KT. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 37 KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SPECIFICALLY AT BUOY
41052 JUST SOUTH OF ST JOHN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY 19/18Z. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WELL AS SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OF THE WAVE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL...EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES BY 19/12Z AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 50 50 40 0
STT 87 78 88 80 / 60 40 20 10

[cycloneye]

Plenty of rain for the islands today as the Tropical Wave moves thru.

[cycloneye]

Cayman Islands forecast

Valid fOR THE morning Of JUNE 19th 2013

through the morning of JUNE 20th 2013.



SYNOPSIS:



The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression two.



At 5 a.m. Tropical depression Two was located near 19.3 N 93.3 W or about 105 miles northeast of Coatzacoalcos Mexico and is moving west northwest near 9 mph with max sustained winds near 35 mph.



This depression poses no threat to the Cayman Islands.



Light to moderate easterly winds and seas is expected over the Cayman Islands for the next 24 hours due to a high pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean.



THE FORECAST:



Today: Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers. Temperatures will rise to the low 90’s. Winds will be east 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.



Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.



TIDES:

Today: High 5:53 a.m. Low 12:24 p.m. High 7:19 p.m.

Tomorrow: Low 1:22 a.m. High 6:20 a.m. Low 1:11 p.m. High 8:02 p.m.



SUNSET: 7:06 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:48 a.m. Tomorrow.



OUTLOOK: is for similar weather conditions through Friday morning.



FORECASTER

MILLER



Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

June 19 2013
 

Significant Feature: Tropical wave across the central Caribbean.

Morning:   Sunny and windy.

Afternoon:   Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 20 knots (24 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (89F)     Low: 26C (79F)
 


[cycloneye]

Good morning. Moisture left behind by the Tropical Wave will combine with the Upper Trough to bring scattered showers today for PR and adjacent islands but better weather is expected starting on Friday and lasting thru the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS
FROM HISPANOLA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENS. LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND BY THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
TUTT TODAY. THEREFORE...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN LESS CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT OVER HISPANOLA/SW NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THAT LIES ALONG AND BENEATH THE EASTERN FLANK OF TUTT.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL LEFT LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH SINCE MIDNIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LITTLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE ENOUGH TO FUEL
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HRS. UNDER A LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE USVI..CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EAST AND SOUTH
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THE REST OF THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY STABLE AIR MASS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOCAL TAF SITES AS LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
LOCAL ISLANDS. WIND BLO FL100 MAINLY SOUTHEAST 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AS A
RESULT...SCA FOR THESE MARINE ZONES WERE CANCELLED. IN CONTRAST...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE
SCA CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR AMZ710-732-741 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 88 77 / 50 20 20 20
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Montserratt forecast

Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Friday 21st June 2013.


Synopsis: A relatively dry air mass has returned to the region as a high pressure ridge once again is the dominant weather feature

Weather: Today:Skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy with a few scattered showers. Tonight: Partly cloudy with a isolated overnight and early morning showers.

Winds: NE-ENE at 12-18kts over land and reaching near 20kts over open waters...

Seas: Moderate to locally rough with waves 1.5-1.8m or 5-6ft. Small craft operators should exercise caution..

Barometric Pressure: Above normal.

Sunset today: 6:45 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:37 am.



http://www.antiguamet.com/




Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Tropical wave across the central Caribbean.

Morning:   Sunny and windy.

Afternoon:   Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 20 knots (24 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (89F)     Low: 26C (79F)


[cycloneye]

Good morning. A nice weekend in general is expected for PR with only a few showers mainly in the afternoon hours.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST FRI JUN 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THEREFORE...HAZY SKIES WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...WEST
OF THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SKIES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR DATA SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AROUND
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. 21/00Z SOUNDING
AT TJSJ SHOWED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 5000 FEET...PLACING
A CAP ON THE INCOMING MOISTURE...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. INDEED...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...LEAVING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN GENERAL...AN OVERALL "DRIER" AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PULSES
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WHEN THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL REGION...
INCREASING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA WERE CANCELLED FOR AMZ710...
AMZ725...AMZ732...AMZ741. ALTHOUGH...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY...
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY...JUNE 21ST IS OFFICIALLY THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE 2013 SUMMER ENDS ON SEPTEMBER 21.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 78 / 20 30 30 30
STT 88 77 88 80 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Tropical wave across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy and windy.

Afternoon:   Windy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and windy.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 20 knots (24 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (87F)     Low: 25C (77F)


Antigua & Barbuda forecast

Saturday 22nd June 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 26°C
79°F


Synopsis: A weak low level trough moving slowly across the Northeastern Caribbean will result in some brief passing showers across the Leeward Islands today and tonight.

Wx:

Today: Partly sunny to cloudy with some brief passing showers possible during the course of the day.

Tonight: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a good chance of some more brief passing showers.

Winds: ENE-E at 10-16kts over land and reaching near 20kts over open waters..

Seas: Moderate waves 1.5-1.8m or 5-6ft. Small craft operators should exercise caution..

Barometric Pressure: Normal.

Rainfall to date for the month of June: 46.4 mm/1.83 inches

Sunset today: 6:44 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:34 am.

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI JUN 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK CUT OFF LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH VERY SLOWLY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MONDAY AND LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM
NORTH OF 30 DEGREES NORTH...BUT MAINTAINS LOCAL TRADE WINDS AT
MODERATE TO FRESH FORCE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SOME SAHARAN
DUST IS ALSO BEING CARRIED. MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LIMITED ABOVE 7
KFT EXCEPT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY APPEARS WEAK IN THE MOST
RECENT MODELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS HAVE APPEARED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME AS A STREAMER OFF OF VIEQUES AND ONE OR TWO OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INSIGNIFICANT. HIGH
PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS AND DRIER SAHARAN AIR ABOVE 7 KFT HAVE
CAPPED MOST ACTIVITY. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES SHARPLY SATURDAY NIGHT...DROPS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RISES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE DIMINISHING AGAIN
ON THURSDAY AND REMAINING MODEST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE FLOW AND WITH MID LEVELS
DOMINATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN
VARIATIONS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT PRESENT THE BEST MOISTURE
APPEARS TO ARRIVE WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS STILL NOT EXPECTED IN PART DUE TO THE GOOD
TRADE WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR ABOVE THE MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE FOR TJPS AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON AND OVR
INTERIOR/SW PR WITH MTN OBSC. WINDS FROM SFC TO 2K FT WILL REMAIN
FROM ENE AT 5 TO 15 KTS AT LEAST UNTIL TONIGHT. LAND BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AFT 21/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST EXPOSED WATERS. THIS SITUATION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 88 / 30 20 40 40
STT 78 88 78 89 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected this weekend in PR with only a few showers. Two Tropical Waves will increase the showers next week.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SAT JUN 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HISPANOLA. THE
UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SUSTAINING A DENSE CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVEL...
DOPPLER RADAR HAVE BEEN INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADE WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PLENTY OF
LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUGGESTING THE SAME
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REFLECTS A RECONFIGURATION OF THE SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN...STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
SECOND...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/17Z. VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
TJMZ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE WINDS/SEAS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 78 / 20 40 40 40
STT 88 78 87 80 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected in PR today with only a few showers. Two Tropical Waves will increase the showers this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST SUN JUN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL RELOCATE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK. SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS
CARRIED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST NOON AST. A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING LAYERS
OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR DATA
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS WET
TRADE WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING BY A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER 18Z... AND
SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
START BECOMING WETTER TOMORROW THROUGH MID-WEEK AS TWO TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ON WEDNESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH EXPECTED ON AND OFF DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS AL TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-6 FEET WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 77 / 60 40 60 30
STT 87 80 87 80 / 50 40 60 30

[cycloneye]

Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Atlantic.

Morning:  Sunny and windy.

Afternoon:   Fair and windy except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair and windy.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 33C (91F)     Low: 26C (79F)


Trinidad & Tobago forecast

http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/


Punta Cana forecast

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathe ... punta-cana

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST SUN JUN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF
CUBA MOVES NORTHEAST AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND RETROGRESS TO OVER PUERTO RICO BY THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED GENERALLY IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL POUR IN OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHTING
STRIKES NOTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND 2 PM AST. BY 3 PM SHOWERS
WERE WEAKENING. A NOTABLY DRIER AREA IS MOVING TOWARD VIEQUES AND
PUERTO RICO AND WILL ARRIVE IN SAN JUAN BY MID EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN AGAIN AHEAD OF A WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 60 WEST AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE. THIS WAVE WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUERTO RICO AND AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OWING TO THE DRIER NATURE OF THE AIR SURROUNDING THE
WAVE. THE WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NOTICEABLY DUSTIER AIR MASS
ON TUESDAY. THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY IS DEPICTED AS MORE VIGOROUS AND
SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINS
TO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOW BEING SHOWN TO PERSIST AS LATE AS
FRIDAY...SO WOULD EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO THE GENERALLY SHOWERY WEEK
TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST ARE GENERALLY WELL POSITIONED FOR VENTILATION AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE SECOND WAVE. THIS DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF -SHRA FOR TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ
UNTIL AROUND 23/22Z. ALSO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL AT
LEAST 23/22Z WITH VCTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...STEADY EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND ADVANCING
SHOWERS ARE KEEPING SEAS ROUGH AND AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
EXPOSED AREAS. WHEN THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 78 87 / 50 60 30 40
STT 78 87 79 89 / 70 60 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave will move thru PR and adjacent islands today bringing scattered showers.A more stronger one will arrive on Wednesday bringing even more shower activity.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH ESTABLISHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE EAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS.

A SHORT BREAK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MORNING PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN PR/USVI AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORM
OVER WESTERN PR CANT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO INDICATE THAT THE WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 50W...WILL REACH
LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD BE STRONGER WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS W AND NW PR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND XCP MVFR IN OCNL SHRA AS HI MOISTURE SWEEPS
THRU REGION TDY...FM TJSJ EASTWARD DURING MRNG THEN MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ
BY AFT WI OBSCD MTNS. COND SIMILAR AGN TUE. WIND SFC-FL150 E 14-22
KT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W WILL MOVE OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
MAY INCREASE SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 89 79 89 79 / 60 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Montessrat forecast

Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Tuesday 25th June 2013.


Synopsis: A broad area of high pressure over the Atlantic will drive a moderate trade wind across the Eastern Caribbean for the next few days. Embedded in this wind flow are pockets
of moisture.

Today: Partly cloudy spells with passing showers

Tonight: Partly cloudy spells with passing showers

Winds: East 14 - 18 Kts, increasing to 20 Kts over coastal waters.

Seas: Moderate: waves 5 - 6 FT or 1.5 - 1.8 M.

Barometric Pressure: Above Normal.

Sunset today: 6:45 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:36 am.

St Lucia forecast


http://www.slumet.gov.lc/


Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:    Windy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (89F)     Low: 25C (77F)


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST MON JUN 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TRAIN OF SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 11
AM...STREAMED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
GREATER METROPOLITAN AREA LEAVING RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
DATE AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE RAIN FELL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY
HOWEVER. THE MIMIC PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOISTURE FILLING IN TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...PROBABLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. THEN
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST AHEAD OF
A WAVE PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK JET SOUTH OF IT THAT WILL
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THAT PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ITS ESTIMATE FOR THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FOR
THE MOMENT THERE MAY BE BETTER...DRIER...WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WAVE ON
SUNDAY. FARTHER AHEAD... THE SUNDAY WAVE APPEARS TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR COND XCP MVFR IN OCNL SHRA AS HIGH MOISTURE KEEPS
MOVING ACROSS REGION REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ
UNTIL 24/23Z WI OBSCD MTNS. COND SIMILAR AGAIN TUE. WIND SFC-FL150
E 14-22 KT THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH
WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY SEAS IN
EXPOSED WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 FEET. ALTHOUGH NOT
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT
WEDNESDAYS TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING 7 FOOT SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO CARIBBEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 85 77 86 / 30 40 60 60
STT 79 88 78 88 / 30 30 70 70