Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

AT 15UTC...TROPICAL STORM COSME CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 105.8...WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45KT.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 11KT. SEE NHC BULLETIN FOR
DETAILS.

DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 24/00UTC: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST USA...WITH AXIS ANCHORING AT 250 HPA ON A
CLOSED HIGH BETWEEN COLIMA/NAYARIT-SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
IS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW TO TS
COSME...WITH NHC FORECASTING THE STORM TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AS IT INTENSIFIES TO A HURRICANE. THE
STORM IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ...DRAWING THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
NORTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO-NAYARIT.
THIS IS TO THEN ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.
THROUGH 36-48 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. LATER ON DAY03...AS THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY...EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...A TUTT IS INITIALIZED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH AXIS SOUTH ACROSS HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA.
A BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL DISPLACE THIS TUTT
WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO GUATEMALA BY 48 HRS...TO MEANDER WEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF-SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO BY 72 HRS. THIS
SUSTAINS A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NICARAGUA-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE CYCLE...THAT MIGRATES ACROSS HONDURAS TO
BELIZE THROUGH 48-54 HRS...AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO BY 72 HRS. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE DEEP TUTT PATTERN IS TO
INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA
RICA/PANAMA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE FAVORING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. ACROSS
HONDURAS/NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM THROUGH 48
HRS. ACROSS BELIZE-EASTERN GUATEMALA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE OVER WESTERN
GUATEMAL-YUCATAN-SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM BY 60 HRS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY AT 60-84 HRS.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF/WESTERN CUBA SEPARATES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUTT FROM ANOTHER TUTT OVER THE
BAHAMAS-EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA. EVOLVING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE PATTERN
TO THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THIS TUTT TO MIGRATE EAST...WITH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA BY 48 HRS TO PUERTO
RICO/NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES BY 72-84 HRS. AS THE TUTT MEANDERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-TURKS/EASTERN CUBA EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...IT IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. OVER HISPANIOLA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY AT 36-60 HRS. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO-USVI-EASTERN HISPANIOLA ON DAY 03...WHERE IN
INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY.

AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MEANDERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN-NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA...IT IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH/ITCZ. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA-NORTHWEST VENEZUELA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY...WHILE OVER EASTERN COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA
EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WITH MOST ACTIVE BY 48-60
HRS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
19W 24W 29W 34W 38W 43W 48W TW
52W 56W 59W 62W 66W 69W 72W TW
67W 70W 74W 78W 81W 83W 84W EW
74W 77W 80W 82W DISSIPATES TUTT INDCD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 19W IS TO NEAR FRENCH GUIANA ON DAY 04.
MEANWHILE...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W AND SOUTH OF 17N IS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME TO GUYANA THROUGH
30-36 HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...
WHILE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OVER PUERTO RICO-VIRGIN ISLES...AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH A TUTT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THIS
SPREADS TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH 84-96 HRS.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 67W AND SOUTH OF 22N IS TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. ACROSS JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLES IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY. OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY...WHILE OVER PANAMA-COSTA
RICA EXPECTING IT TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. AS IT ENTERS EASTERN NICARAGUA IT WILL
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.

A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 74W IS ENHANCING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS JAMAICA...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLES IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE TO THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA EARLY IN THE CYCLE WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE OVER
NORTHEAST HONDURAS/EASTERN NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Tropical Wave will affect the Eastern Caribbean beginning today and spread west towards PR tomorrow bringing scattered to numerous showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE AT MID
LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 59W IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES TO
PRODUCE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO/US VIRGIN ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 59W...MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PR/USVI EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS LINGERING MOISTURE COINCIDES
WITH APPROACHING TUTT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS
MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA NR TJSJ/TIST/TNCM/TKPK
BEFORE DAYBREAK. INCR SHRA/TSRA FM TROPICAL WV WL MV INTO LEEWARD
ISLANDS NXT FEW HRS AND USVI BY NOON...CONT INTO WED. WIND BLO
FL150 E 12-25 KT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS MAY INCREASE
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.37 INCHES WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN/P.R. YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.68 SET IN
1951. ALSO...JUNE 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH WETTEST JUNE
ON RECORD AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 9.71 INCHES ACCUMULATED SO
FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 77 / 40 60 60 60
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

Barbados forecast

http://www.barbadosweather.org/


St Lucia forecast

http://www.slumet.gov.lc/


Jamaica forecast

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE USVI...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WAS ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IN COMBINATIONS WITH LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED
TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...ONE WAVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE OTHER WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 63W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE
WILL COMBINE WITH A TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES
TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES...INCREASING TO 2.0 INCHES
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES...WHEN A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR CONDS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND TAF SITES TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH TIST AND TISX
BETWEEN NOW AND 25/23Z AND INTO PR BY 25/02Z. TJSJ HOWEVER MAY NOT
SEE MVFR BEFORE 26/10Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE AFT 26/02Z
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AFT 26/12Z. LLVL WINDS EAST 10-25 KT UP TO 20
KFT. WINDS W 40-60 KT BTWN 40-50 KFT. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE
AFT 26/10Z ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH 26/20Z.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AS A MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 86 / 60 60 60 70
STT 78 86 77 86 / 70 70 70 70

[msbee]

Rainy day here as the tropical wave passes. Light showers, not heavy.


Public Forecast for St. Maarten

DATE ISSUED: Tuesday, June 25, 2013 @ 12:00 Lst (16:00 UTC)
VALID UNTIL: Wednesday midday (12:00 Lst) June 26, 2013

WEATHER:
Today: Partly cloudy, becoming increasingly cloudy and breezy with isolated showers and a risk of thunder.
Wednesday: Generally partly cloudy and breezy with a local shower possible.

Forecast High: 30°C / 86°F Forecast Low: 25°C / 77°F

Sunrise Tomorrow: 05:39 A.M Sunset Tonight: 6:52 P.M

SURFACE WINDS:
Today through Wednesday: Northeast to east with a moderate to fresh breeze of 13 to 22 miles per hour.

SYNOPSIS:
A tropical wave is currently passing through the Caribbean mainly affecting the Windward Islands. However, this system will introduce some instability to the region creating an environment conducive for shower activity. Therefore, expect increasingly cloudy conditions with isolated to scattered showers possible and a risk of thunder.
Sea conditions will be moderate for the next several days.

STATE OF THE SEA: Moderate WAVES/SWELLS: 4 to 6 feet

SPECIAL FEATURES: None.

Significant Tropical Weather Systems: None.

OUTLOOK until Thursday midday: Generally partly cloudy and breezy with local showers possible.

FORECASTER: Pierre

The next weather forecast will be issued Today at 18:00 Lst (22:00 UTC).

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered to numerous showers will affect PR today thru Thursday as a Tropical Wave moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 AM AST WED JUN 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 65W EXTENDING MAINLY SOUTH INTO
THE CARIBBEAN IS MOVING WEST WITH TRAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALONG WITH 1000-700 MB THETA-E VALUES EXCEEDING 340K. SOON TO
INTERACT WITH IT IS THE TUTT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 26N/69W AS
SHOWN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP...WITH A TROUGH ROTATING
EASTWARD ON ITS SOUTH SIDE. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT 250 MB
DIVERGENCE RESULTING BY 18Z TODAY BUT MAINLY EASTWARD FROM THE
USVI. GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO TAKE THE PRIMARY THETA-E CONVERGENCE
AND RESULTING QPF ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER PR/USVI THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AN ISSUE. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY CONVECTION WOULD BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF. FLOODING SHOULD BE RATHER LOCALIZED...MAINLY IN
URBAN/SMALL STREAM AREAS. GFS USUALLY HAS A TOUGH TIME LOCATING
THE AREA OF BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE BUT ITS SOLUTION LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD ATTM.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF 40W AND DUE HERE SAT
NIGHT/SUN. THE SAME TUTT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PR WILL HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THAT WAVE TOO BUT
THE TIMING DETAILS MAKE CURRENT ADJUSTMENTS DIFFICULT.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT PR AND USVI TAF SITES IN SHRA/TSRA AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EAST PR AND USVI
THIS MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS WEST PR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ANTICIPATED. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT TKPK AND TNCM WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. LLVL WINDS SE 10-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 10.01 INCHES ACCUMULATED SO FAR. JUNE 2011
REMAINS AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 13.60 INCHES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEAS TO 6 FT BUT THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 78 / 70 60 60 20
STT 86 77 86 78 / 70 70 70 20

[cycloneye]

Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Tropical wave across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:   Windy with scattered showers mainly over interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (89F)     Low: 25C (77F)


Punta Cana forecast


http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathe ... punta-cana

Anguilla forecast

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED JUN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD TONIGHT OVER HISPANIOLA AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS...BUT SPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS JUST ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES DETECTED A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE DEPARTURE WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. THUS...FOR THURSDAY THIS
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PWAT VALUES FOR TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 2.0
INCHES...DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 1.80 BY THURSDAY AND CLOSE TO 1.60
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHEN A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT PR AND
USVI TAF SITES IN SHRA/TSRA AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF PUERTO
RICO TOWARD THE WEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREADING ACROSS WEST PR
THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 27/22Z.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT TKPK AND TNCM WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE THRU 27/22Z. LLVL WINDS ESE 10-25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEAS TO 6 FT BUT THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 87 / 50 60 40 40
STT 78 86 76 88 / 70 70 30 30

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 26/00UTC: AT 250 HPA A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST USA.
A TUTT LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF...A LOW NEAR THE CAMPECHE SOUND-ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. RIDGE OVER MEXICO TENDS TO WANE THROUGH 36-42
HRS...WHILE SEGMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST USA WILL BE MORE RESILIENT.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE THE TUTT IS TO THEN RETROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 42-48 HRS. BY 72-96 HRS THIS IS TO EVOLVE
INTO A NARROW TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GULF-CENTRAL MEXICO TO
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. DEEP TUTT PATTERN IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-YUCATAN-BELIZE TO NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS HONDURAS-GUATEMALA TO BELIZE IT IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY
THROUGH 36-48 HRS...WHILE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. THROUGH
60-72 HRS THIS IS TO DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY...BUT AS THE TUTT PATTERN
EVOLVES THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM/DAY.

ALSO AT 250 HPA...A RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN-CUBA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE CENTERING ON A
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE PATTERN IS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT HOLDS...IT IS TO VENT ITCZ
RELATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA-PANAMA
WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA...ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. THROUGH 72-96
HRS THIS IS TO DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE...A TUTT LOW IS TO STALL AS IT
RELOCATES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/USVI EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THE
MEANDERING LOW IS TO THEN CARVE A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 42-48 HRS...WHERE
TROUGH PATTERN IS TO THEN HOLD THROUGH 96-108 HRS. THE TUTT ALOFT
IS TO FAVOR A DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS HISPANIOLA-PUERTO
RICO-LEEWARD ISLANDS. EARLY IN THE CYCLE...IN INTERACTION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. AS THE TUTT PERSISTS...IT IS TO THEN
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
LATER ON DAY 03. OTHER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH AS THE TUTT
INTERACTS WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN GUYANA...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
40W 45W 49W 53W 56W 59W 61W 64W TW
64W 69W 73W 77W 79W 82W 84W 86W TW
81W 83W 85W 88W 90W 92W 94W 97W EW

PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 40W AND SOUTH OF
12N. AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. THROUGH 33-36 HRS IT IS TO ENTER FRENCH
GUIANA-SURINAME WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT PULLS ACROSS SURINAME-GUYANA
TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLES/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA IT IS TO THEN
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.
WAVE IS TO THEN PHASE WITH TUTT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH
MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE FRENCH-LEEWARD ISLES BY
84-96 HRS...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM/DAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LIES ALONG 64W TO 19N.
THIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE TUTT IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ACROSS
HAITI IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM/DAY. THE WAVE ENTERS JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA DURING MAX
HEATING ON DAY 02...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...
WHILE OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA THIS WAVE IS TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
WHILE MODULATING THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA-NORTHEAST HONDURAS IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 81W AND SOUTH OF 20N IS TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY...WHILE OVER CENTRAL CUBA IT WILL SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA IT IS
TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY. AS IT ENTERS EASTERN NICARAGUA IT WILL SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER EL
SALVADOR-WESTERN HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IT
IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR today but diminuish by tonight. Next wave arrives by Saturday night bringing more showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST THU JUN 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...TUTT UPPER LOW 25N/66W TO DRIFT A LITTLE EAST TODAY
WHICH PLACES US UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW FROM 500 MB AND UP. BEST
RESULTING LIFT WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST...SOMETHING GFS HAS ANTICIPATED
WELL THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REESTABLISHED
AT EASTERN PR AND ST. THOMAS...EXTENDING TOWARD NORTHWEST. THESE
COULD CONTINUE SPREADING SOME THIS MORNING BUT DRY AIR IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN 850-700 MB LAYER WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS RELATIVE TO WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ALONG WITH IMPROVING SUNSHINE TODAY TO GIVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST PR BUT LESS ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ABOUT 45W MOVING WEST 15 KT...TO
ARRIVE PR/USVI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. SO FAR IT LOOKS TO
BRING WITH IT ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BUT THE
TUTT WILL BE IN BETTER POSITION TO PROVIDE GOOD SHEAR AND KEEP THE
WAVE DISORGANIZED. LOW LEVEL THETA-E LOOKS A SHADE LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT EXITING WAVE. HOWEVER THE 250 MB JET MIGHT BE IN POSITION
TO CAUSE GOOD DIVERGENCE THAT LEVEL AND UPWARD MOTION FOR
DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TKPK/TNCM...
TIST/TISX AND TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 27/12Z. AFT 27/15Z...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND MAY
AFFECT TJMZ/TJBQ AND TJSJ. LLVL WINDS ESE 10-20 KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 5TH...10TH AND 11TH WETTEST
JUNE ON RECORD AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/IST AND
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/ISX RESPECTIVELY. HERE ARE THE MONTHLY RECORDS
FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE.

SAN JUAN AREA | CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/IST |CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/ISX

1) 2011 13.60" | 2010 9.51" | 1987 7.83"
2) 1902 12.22" | 1956 8.29" | 2011 7.31"
3) 1938 11.76" | 1983 6.97" | 2010 7.03"
4) 1965 10.96" | 2009 5.33" | 1979 6.34"
5) 2013 10.88" | 1973 5.00" | 1960 4.78"
6) 2009 10.37" | 1953 4.84" | 1953 4.76"
7) 1931 9.45" | 2005 4.83" | 1955 4.70"
8) 1958 9.32" | 1995 4.74" | 1988 4.58"
9) 1956 9.30" | 1960 4.72" | 1958 4.27"
10) 1970 9.26" | 2013 4.37" | 1995 4.25"
11) 2010 9.23" | 1988 4.35" | 2013 4.22"
12) 1932 8.98" | 1978 4.29" | 1956 4.18"

&&

.MARINE...MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETREAT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...
FROM 30N TO 35N BY THE WEEKEND AND WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND SEAS 6 FT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 87 77 / 40 30 20 20
STT 87 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Curacao forecast

http://www.meteo.an/index.asp

Jamaica forecast

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Tropical wave across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy.

Afternoon:   Windy with scattered showers mainly over interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (89F)     Low: 25C (77F


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST THU JUN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 45 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FIRST...OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES
OF BARCELONETA AND MANATI. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS DEPICTED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 45 WEST LONGITUDE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY. FROM THE TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC...THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SJU- GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST
THETAE VALUES AT 700MB WILL BE AROUND 340K SUNDAY...AND LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF THE MODEL VERIFY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SQUALLY WEATHER COULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 27/22Z. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TKPK/TNCM...TIST/TISX THIS EVENING. LLVL WINDS ESE 10-20 KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 87 / 30 20 20 20
STT 78 88 79 89 / 20 20 30 30

[Gustywind]

Breaking news from Guadeloupe... Yesterday night a plane crashed at our airport "Poles Caraibes". Hopefully only material damages have been reported.


Crash at Pole Caribbean

By Catherine the Pelletier
Published 27/06/2013. 11:33, last updated 27/06/2013. 11:34

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 44379.html

Pole Caribbean crash last night. A plane crashed after a technical failure on the runway of the international airport. Fortunately, the damage is only material.

He pitched the nose
It is a 'Piper azteca"which was crushed on the Pole Caribbean airport runway. It was an accident that happened while a driver was attempting a qualification, it was with an instructor. It is a hardware technical failure that would be at the origin of the crash: a light of the device would not lit, so it took to perform an emergency landing.

Track closed for 1 h 40
The small plane pitched the nose on the runway where it crashed. Its two occupants were spared. However, this accident resulted in delays to the arrival and departing from other flights, the time that the runway is cleared, all traffic was interrupted during 1 h 40. An investigation will determine the exact conditions of the accident.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected for today thru Saturday but for Sunday,another Tropical Wave will move thru bringing scatteed showers. Wow Gusty,it could have been a very bad situation with people killed but thankfully that didn't occurred.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WHILE WINDS WERE VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 25N/64W...AND TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 53W.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF TUTT LOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE...THIS MORNING LOCATED NEAR
53W...MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTS WITH TUTT
LOW. THEREFORE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING...SPREADING
ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST TIL MONDAY MORNING.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST
AS TUTT LOW RELOCATES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...
AT LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS NOW ENTERING. ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR TIL AT LEAST 28/16Z. AFT 28/16Z EXPECT SHRA/TSRA WRN PR
WITH MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND MTN OBSCURATIONS VCNTY. LLVL WINDS SE
10-15 KTS...BCMG E 10-15 KT AFT 28/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD AT THE SAN JUAN AREA. MEANWHILE...AT CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT/IST AND CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/ISX...JUNE 2013 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE 10TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SAN JUAN AREA | CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/IST |CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/ISX

1) 2011 13.60" | 2010 9.51" | 1987 7.83"
2) 1902 12.22" | 1956 8.29" | 2011 7.31"
3) 1938 11.76" | 1983 6.97" | 2010 7.03"
4) 2013 11.08" | 2009 5.33" | 1979 6.34"
5) 1965 10.96" | 1973 5.00" | 1960 4.78"
6) 2009 10.37" | 1953 4.84" | 1953 4.76"
7) 1931 9.45" | 2005 4.83" | 1955 4.70"
8) 1958 9.32" | 1995 4.74" | 1988 4.58"
9) 1956 9.30" | 1960 4.72" | 1958 4.27"
10) 1970 9.26" | 2013 4.38" | 2013 4.25"


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED DURING MOST
OF THE DAY. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO
RICO. LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS AND SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS RELATIVELY
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 50 WEST LONGITUDE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
BY SUNDAY. FROM THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM THE
NHC...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED MAINLY IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. SJU- GFS COMPUTER
MODEL FORECAST THETAE VALUES AT 700MB WILL BE AROUND 340K
SUNDAY...DURING MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...TUTT WILL
LINGER CLOSE TO OUR AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS OVER THE REGION AND THEREFORE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA NORTHWEST PR WITH MVFR CONDS AT
TJBQ AND MTN OBSCURATIONS VCNTY UNTIL AT LEAST 28/22Z. LLVL WINDS SE
10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 87 / 20 20 20 60
STT 79 89 79 87 / 20 20 40 60

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Good weather is expected for today thru Saturday but for Sunday,another Tropical Wave will move thru bringing scatteed showers. Wow Gusty,it could have been a very bad situation with people killed but thankfully that didn't occurred.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WHILE WINDS WERE VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR 25N/64W...AND TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 53W.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF TUTT LOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE...THIS MORNING LOCATED NEAR
53W...MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTS WITH TUTT
LOW. THEREFORE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING...SPREADING
ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST TIL MONDAY MORNING.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST
AS TUTT LOW RELOCATES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...
AT LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS NOW ENTERING. ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR TIL AT LEAST 28/16Z. AFT 28/16Z EXPECT SHRA/TSRA WRN PR
WITH MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND MTN OBSCURATIONS VCNTY. LLVL WINDS SE
10-15 KTS...BCMG E 10-15 KT AFT 28/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD AT THE SAN JUAN AREA. MEANWHILE...AT CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT/IST AND CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/ISX...JUNE 2013 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE 10TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SAN JUAN AREA | CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/IST |CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/ISX

1) 2011 13.60" | 2010 9.51" | 1987 7.83"
2) 1902 12.22" | 1956 8.29" | 2011 7.31"
3) 1938 11.76" | 1983 6.97" | 2010 7.03"
4) 2013 11.08" | 2009 5.33" | 1979 6.34"
5) 1965 10.96" | 1973 5.00" | 1960 4.78"
6) 2009 10.37" | 1953 4.84" | 1953 4.76"
7) 1931 9.45" | 2005 4.83" | 1955 4.70"
8) 1958 9.32" | 1995 4.74" | 1988 4.58"
9) 1956 9.30" | 1960 4.72" | 1958 4.27"
10) 1970 9.26" | 2013 4.38" | 2013 4.25"


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 40

Thanks to you Cycloneye oh yeah that could be even worse hopefully things stay like that.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France has issued a yellow alert for Martinica and Guadeloupe for a risk of strong showers and tstorms due to an active twave. This bad weather is expected to spread till Sunday given the latest weather forecast. I will keep you informed if anything happens here.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Macrocane]

A rainy weekend is expected in Central America:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JUNE 28/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...A HIGH OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO ANCHORS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GENERALLY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
RETROGRESSING TUTT LIES TO THE SOUTH...CENTERING ON A LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF JUST EAST OF TAMAULIPAS/VERACRUZ MEXICO. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE LOW IS TO MOVE INLAND
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 24-36 HRS...AND THROUGH 48 HRS IT IS
TO REPOSITION TO SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. A NARROW TROUGH IS TO
THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF-CENTRAL MEXICO AS IT ALIGNS
ALONG 22N/23N. AN AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
USA IS TO THEN DRIVE REMNANTS OF THE TUTT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN/GUATEMALA-WESTERN CUBA. AS THE TUTT
MEANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...IT IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN
INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM. THROUGH 48-72 HRS...AS THE TUTT DEEPENS...THIS IS TO
INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO/SIERRA MADRE DEL SUL EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...DECREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY AS THE TUTT PATTERN WEAKENS.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS TO BUILD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...
WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION SUSTAINING RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH 48 HRS.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE ITCZ. AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES...IT IS LIKELY TO FAVOR MODULATION OF THE ITCZ INTO
SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO...TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
COLIMA/NAYARIT-JALISCO AND GUERRERO. THROUGH 72-96 HRS EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE HIGHLY LIKELY.

EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ALSO AT 250 HPA...THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN USA IS TO PRESS AGAINST THIS AXIS...AND THROUGH
48-72 HRS IT REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE...EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE...MEANWHILE...IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT IN TWO CELLS...WITH ONE TO INITIALLY MEANDER
OVER THE BAHAMAS/WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE PRIMARY ONE REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA. AS THE TROUGH
PATTERN AMPLIFIES...THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHILE
PROVIDING THE VENTILATION ALOFT TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ACROSS CUBA
INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. THIS INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY BY 48-72 HRS....AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM/DAY AT 72-96 HRS. CONVECTION IS TO SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILD
NORTH ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 36-48
HRS...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. THROUGH 72-96 HRS THE MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 15-20MM AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN USA AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE TO
STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS COSTA
RICA-PANAMA-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO CENTER ON A MIGRATORY
CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF THE PANAMA CANAL EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...THAT MEANDERS WEST ACROSS COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA
THROUGH 54-60 HRS. OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA/WESTERN
PANAMA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 50-100MM THROUGH 36 HRS. THIS THEN DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM BY 72-84 HRS. ACROSS NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH RELATED
CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVES. OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA-HONDURAS
AND EL SALVADOR...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 48-60
HRS. BY 60-84 HRS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF DIGGING TUTT OVER
YUCATAN...EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO 20-40MM.

DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLES
EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT IS TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. BY 48-72 HRS...AS A CELL
OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE TUTT IS TO RETROGRESS TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER
DURING THE WEEKEND...WHEN IN INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTING MOISTURE TO SURGE AND CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
28W 31W 34W 36W 39W 42W 46W 50W TW
58W 60W 62W 65W 68W 71W 74W 78W TW
78W 80W 82W 84W 86W 88W 90W 92W TW
90W 92W 94W DISSIPATES EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W REACHES THE GUIANAS LATER ON DAY 04...TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W IS PHASING WITH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TUTT. AS THEY INTERACT MOISTURE SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WHERE PWAT IS TO
PEAK AT 45-50MM. AS IT MOVES ACROSS GUYANA-SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM BY 24-36 HRS. ACROSS
BARBADOS-THE FRENCH-LEEWARD ISLES IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY BY 36-48
HRS...WITH CONVECTION TO EXPAND ACROSS THE USVI TO PUERTO RICO
THROUGH 60-66 HRS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. THROUGH
72-84 HRS THIS WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W TO 21N IS INTERACTING WITH THE
PANAMANIAN LOW/EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...SUSTAINING A SURGE IN
ACTIVITY. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WHILE MODULATING THE
ITCZ NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. ACROSS EASTERN
NICARAGUA-NORTHEAST HONDURAS IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. OVER EL SALVADOR/
HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE OVER
CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY 48-60 HRS. ACROSS BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN...AS IT PHASES WITH TUTT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...IT IS TO
THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY.

A WANING EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 90W. THIS WAVE IS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH 24-36 HRS AS IT SHEARS UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT
PATTERN OVER MEXICO. MEANWHILE...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave affecting the Lesser Antilles today will arrive on Sunday to PR bringing scattered showers and some gusts.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST SAT JUN 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEARING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-20 KT. NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT
WILL ARRIVE PR/USVI ON SUNDAY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY THEN.
STRONGEST PART OF IT WILL BE IN SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE NORTH
PART NICELY SHEARED. DEEP MOISTURE IN AND BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
INCREASE CONVECTION BUT TUTT UPPER LOW 22N/64W WILL WEAKEN SOME
BY SUNDAY. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
EAST OF PR/USVI WILL FLATTEN AND LIKELY NOT ENHANCE CONVECTION AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDER EXPECTED
SUNDAY. FLOODING WILL BE LOCALIZED BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
AT TIMES.

NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF 30W AND EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WED
HOWEVER IT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL
OF DRY AIR IN IT AND GFS INDICATES THAT IT WILL OUTRUN ANY MOISTURE
SOURCE...AND FAIL TO DRAW ANY BEHIND FROM THE ITCZ.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ISOLD TSRA IS PSBL NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN
29/17-20Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE ENE AT 10-20KT. AN
INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AND SEAS WILL BE
UNDER 6 FEET EXCEPT ON THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATER
WHERE SMALL BOATERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 85 76 / 20 30 60 50
STT 86 78 86 78 / 20 60 60 50