STORM2K

NWS Jax officially topped out at 99 degrees this afternoon. Missed the record officially by 1 degree

HOPEFULLY, there is a light at the end of the tunnel with this relentless heat wave we have had across North and Northeast Florida. As I discussed in a post yesterday, we look to finally get a break from the record-type heat we have seen here for much of the past 10 days, and see moisture gradually build across the peninsula as the Upper Ridge axis finally relinquishes its grip over us and retreats. Winds will veer southeast across the peninsula, and then southerly by the latter portion of this week. So, finally, fingers crossed, rain chances substantially increase beginning Thursday, and lasting into the upcoming weekend. Good news for the parched areas that need rain desperately to our north and west and help reduce the wildfire dangers in this region!

I can see quite a bit of lightning outside right now. Looking at the radar it seems to be from a big storm over Lake Okeechobee over 90 miles away from where I live in south Orlando. It’s amazing how far away you can see under the right conditions.


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Yes it's so cool and one of the things I love about the rainy season. I can routinely see lightning 150+ miles away if the view is unobstructed by other cloud debris. Florida is a flat state so a storm of 40K feet + in height is going to be visible for a long distance. I'm about 130 miles or so from the cape and always watch rocket launches. It usually takes about 30 seconds from takeoff for me to see a launch on the horizon...illustrating the curvature of the earth. really cool stuff. I absolutely love watching our summer tropical convection do its thing.

A tiny bit of rain fell yesterday. To call it measurable would be a bit of an understatement. One of the most pained, strained showers I've seen, as if it was a huge effort for the atmosphere to squeeze out that little bit of precipitation. That was it, even given a favorable NW steering flow yesterday.

NWS Jax has issued a big behind special weather statement for many different counties in reference to widespread strong to borderline severe thunderstorms that have popped up / are expected to pop up all across northeast FL / southeast GA. In addition to strong winds, this activity is also capable of producing locally heavy rainfall because the storms are taking their sweet time in moving east.

In other news, I finally got some rain here after about three weeks.

Let's see if any storms are able to venture into the East/Central Miami-Dade Dead Zone today. So far nothing as usual.

A really nasty thunderstorm has popped up in Putnam County. It went from "strong" (45 mph wind gusts) to severe (60 mph wind gusts) to very severe (70 mph wind gusts) in a matter of a few minutes. The storm is also producing large hail.

Long range forecasts have been rather consistent in pushing a heavy rain event over the southeast and north central/northeastern gulf. One of the requirements for such an event is very warm water which is now in place. From the MS coast eastward to the big bend and west coast near shore waters in the upper 80's are common with clearwater beach sitting at a ridiculous 91 degrees. I can attest it is blood warm in the swim zone (still no rain here). The WPC QPF output has been showing 7-10"+ along the panhandle and big bend for several runs now (7 day output) although there is an abrupt cutoff near the florida west coast. Past experience along with current water temps leads me to believe the potential and proximity is worth monitoring as the time frame reels in. Should such an event transpire it would represent a natural boomerang from mother nature...as the foundation for the big rains (at least near the gulf coast) were the result of the abnormally dry weather that preceded it allowing the water to get warmer than would have otherwise been the case.

Rain chances are definitely on the increase for Florida this weekend as a trough sets up over the SE US and Eastern Gulf and the remnants of 91L head towards the SE US. We should see south to southwest steering flow developing and plentiful moisture.

Going off of pattern recognition, late this weekend into early next week seems to bear some similarities to a blend between TS Debby (if gfs is to be believed) and July 2015 (if tropical development isn't as precipitous. In both of these scenarios, despite the onshore wind, the nature coast and big bend coasts saw the most rain. This is likely because the previously mentioned areas were in closest proximity to the upper level and synoptic support this setup is able to provide. In any case, the classic rainy season pattern will again be halted next week. Early guesses over the next week for me qpf wise are

SEFL: 2-3"
SWFL 3-5"
Tampa Bay: 4-6"
Nature Coast: 5-8"
Big Bend/eastern Panhandle: 5-9"
Western panhandle: 3-6"
Space Coast: 2-5"
NEFL: 4-6"

Localized areas may see 1.5-2x my guesstimates above, but obviously picking out those areas with any skill is near impossible this far in advance.

The largest difference really will be in the temporal extent of the rain especially N of I-4 as rain will be possible at nearly any time absent when the atmosphere gets worked over.

The entire state with the absence of inland S FL has really seen a dearth of rainfall in the last month, so this will be a welcome change from the baking the northern side of the state has been getting.

In spite of some of the capping dryer air aloft, the upper air temps haven't been so cool to produce some of those crazy lightning storms that seem to frequent Central Florida. The mid-upper low expected to park (and eventually open to a sharp trough) around the N.E. Gulf, might suggest cooler temps aloft. Still, I'm guessing that most of the moisture pouring over Florida will be primarily a deep layer flow. That might mitigate much of a clash with any East coast sea breeze to develop. Add in a periodic increase of cloud-cover from the moist southwesterly flow over all, plus added debris clouds from earlier in the day scattered showers and I'm not really thinking that this multi day precipitation event will result in too much wild weather or excessive lightning. Hope not anyways; last thing we need is some lightning induced out of control fires popping up throughout the state. Let's hope most of the state get's a good couple inches by Sunday, even if the set up looks to soak the Nature coast and N. Fla. the most.

We really need to cash in on these few days of more elevated rain chances down here. I haven't seen measurable rain since those storms in early May, and I have a feeling that the easterly flow pattern is going to persist through much of the summer.

Patrick. I agree. I see a drought unless something doesn’t change fast

I realize that patience is in perpetual shortage on weather forums but are we really canceling the rainy season in early June? Peninsular florida gets a drought in summer like....never. It hasn't rained in my neighborhood since early May either. It smells like smoke nightly from a nearby wildfire. But the sky is heavy with water and low cloud bases...it looks tropical unlike a couple weeks back when there were days completely devoid of clouds. The newly issued flood watch for the TLH CWA mentions 6-8" of rain with up to 15" jackpots up that way. The discussions from WFOs are pretty bullish on rain chances as they should be. everyone will get bombed in due time. As someone that's enjoyed the dry stretch and is in no hurry for it to end...there's little doubt what's coming. Let the amphibian riots begin!

alot rain here south fl rainy season have return

floridasun78 wrote:alot rain here south fl rainy season have return

Yep, same here in the Orlando area. Got a nice dumping last 2 days. Nothing record setting nor was it hours on end, but certainly getting more tropical.

My dry spell has come to an abrupt and glorious end. Something magical about heavy rain after a long stretch of dry weather. amazing. the frogs will be celebrating tonight

I was one of the lucky ones who got rain a few days ago, and I also got a bit of rain from a weak thunderstorm that passed over my area yesterday.

I'm wondering what the potential is for locally heavy rainfall / flash flooding is throughout north-central/northeast Florida. The aforementioned flash flood watch issued by NWS Tallahassee stops just west of Suwannee County. I wonder if another one will be issued soon for areas farther east.

Seems the models are verifying keeping much of the precip off the coast of the big bend area.
Down in W.Central coastal areas we broken out in sunshine with no threats for the time being on radar or satellite.
Maybe this will be self destructive sunshine and fire up more convection later....We shall see.

FWIW the WPC has throttled back on the max QPF depicted earlier over the northern Gulf but they've become much more generous with overland QPF. This is a fair trade for sure. Lots of rain up and down the state today and it's just the beginning. Many places are destined to transition from desert dry to swamp in short order. It's on!