STORM2K

bubba hotep wrote:

Captmorg70 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:
Yea, snow at DFW is really rare in November. I can only find 3 or 4 events in the record (depending on what data you look at) but the current setup does look similar to 11/2/51.

Where do you find old storm data? I think that it snowed around my birthday, 11/15 about 20 years or so ago. But I’m not sure where to find old data like that. It was in Cooke county btw

This is one of the more user friendly sites out there for viewing data https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Thanks a lot! I was right, 1 inch was recorded 11/15/97. Sure felt like a lot more than an inch as a 10 yo

gboudx wrote:My youngest son has a soccer game in Plano at 8pm. I was hoping that if it was gonna rain, it would’ve started by now. But no. If it does rain, it’s gonna be wet and cold. Ugh.

Just started pouring here and chilly

0z ICON is the first of the big 0z suite (NAM not quite out that far yet) but it is more pronounced and digs. Also lots of qpf coming out of NW Mexico (surprise? not really) and connected to the STJ from the EPAC. Just one model, lets see what the others say.

Many still say quick ending qpf, my concern is if the cold will come quickly enough, strong enough. This is one of those years I just don't have much concern over water given the Nino.

Heavy rain incoming Austin and San Antonio !

Ntxw wrote:0z ICON is the first of the big 0z suite (NAM not quite out that far yet) but it is more pronounced and digs. Also lots of qpf coming out of NW Mexico (surprise? not really) and connected to the STJ from the EPAC. Just one model, lets see what the others say.

Many still say quick ending qpf, my concern is if the cold will come quickly enough, strong enough. This is one of those years I just don't have much concern over water given the Nino.

I mean moisture definitely hasn't been the problem and as I type its raining yet again Immediate ponding...

Brent wrote:

Ntxw wrote:0z ICON is the first of the big 0z suite (NAM not quite out that far yet) but it is more pronounced and digs. Also lots of qpf coming out of NW Mexico (surprise? not really) and connected to the STJ from the EPAC. Just one model, lets see what the others say.

Many still say quick ending qpf, my concern is if the cold will come quickly enough, strong enough. This is one of those years I just don't have much concern over water given the Nino.

I mean moisture definitely hasn't been the problem and as I type its raining yet again Immediate ponding...

Yeah there is plenty of Pacific moisture to work with. If the cold comes in hard, it will undercut whatever is coming out of Mexico, helped by the upper shortwave. We can't compare this year to the past two when there was Nina and no help whatsoever from the tropical Pacific. It's night and day! We've spent the months having cold but searching for moisture. This year we have moisture but will search for cold.

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:

Ntxw wrote:0z ICON is the first of the big 0z suite (NAM not quite out that far yet) but it is more pronounced and digs. Also lots of qpf coming out of NW Mexico (surprise? not really) and connected to the STJ from the EPAC. Just one model, lets see what the others say.

Many still say quick ending qpf, my concern is if the cold will come quickly enough, strong enough. This is one of those years I just don't have much concern over water given the Nino.

I mean moisture definitely hasn't been the problem and as I type its raining yet again Immediate ponding...

Yeah there is plenty of Pacific moisture to work with. If the cold comes in hard, it will undercut whatever is coming out of Mexico, helped by the upper shortwave. We can't compare this year to the past two when there was Nina and no help whatsoever from the tropical Pacific. It's night and day! We've spent the months having cold but searching for moisture. This year we have moisture but will search for cold.

This is one of the things that Bernie Rayno was pointing at today. He thinks that if either the energy pulls ahead of the trough, or the main trough goes neg-tilt in Canada there could be a long strip of half of foot of snow in the Midwest because of the moisture connection.

Just got a nice, moderately heavy rain here at the Weatherdude Center, maybe a third of an inch or so.

0z GFS didn't change much. Per se it would mean snow for areas NW of DFW including the Falls Monday afternoon into evening. CMC similar.

Ntxw wrote:0z GFS didn't change much. Per se it would mean snow for areas NW of DFW including the Falls Monday afternoon into evening. CMC similar.

Interesting but I wonder if the Euro will still stand tall as odd man out??

Euro Weeklies are pretty much climo to slightly wetter, depending on what part of the state you are are in. The one interesting thing is that there is a cluster that drops the hammer during the 2nd week in Dec with some members getting down near 0.

bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies are pretty much climo to slightly wetter, depending on what part of the state you are are in. The one interesting thing is that there is a cluster that drops the hammer during the 2nd week in Dec with some members getting down near 0.

That would be some early pipe busting weather. Surely with the moisture from the Nino we can line up some cold shots to compliment it some this winter.

GEFS still has some hope

The 0z Euro looks like the snow will stay in Oklahoma again

SnowintheFalls wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

so we have to accept it for what it is.

Such is Texas weather. You have to learn to enjoy the journey and temper enthusiasm for the potential outcome. We haven't even started winter yet so there will be many journeys ahead!

Last I saw, our area has a 60% of rain/snow forecasted for Monday.

12z NAM. ICON will be running soon. 850mb temps will fall below freezing very quickly and hard when the 500mb shortwave passes through.

Ntxw wrote:12z NAM. ICON will be running soon.

https://images2.imgbox.com/13/f5/JOwSBCpO_o.gif

Is it safe to tell my children we will see snow on Monday now?

Looking farther out, ensembles are in pretty good agreement that the persistently lower heights across the Great Lakes will relax and a Western trough will set up shop. This should allow systems to dig deeper and kick out across Texas without getting sheared into the base of a Great Lakes trough. That should swing Texas back wetter and milder but as we move towards December any cutoff rolling in will have some winter wx potential.

Drier air is filtering in as cold air advection continue throughout the day. I don't see much of a chance of breaks in the clouds throughout the weekend, but we likely will have a 36 hour break in any measureable rainfall before a Coastal Low develops near Brownsville Saturday afternoon/evening and begins to move up the Texas Gulf Coast into Sunday/early Monday as the very strong Artic Front marches across Texas and off the Coast early Tuesday Morning.

Saturday night into Sunday looks wet and potentially stormy with some elevated low topped thunderstorms possible along and N of a warm front close to the Coast. Thunderstorms could become more numerous along that warm frontal boundary across our Coastal tier of Counties and Offshore. Gale Warnings will continue into tomorrow morning across the offshore waters with wind advisories along the Coast. The remain some uncertainty in the exact track of that Coastal Low, so higher rainfall totals of near 2 inches + are possible where the heaviest rainfall develop and storms may train.

Sunday into Monday night may bring a bout of heavy snow across the Panhandle and lighter amounts possible for locations on East toward N Central Texas. The may be a brief shot of rain/snow mix across the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex into the Piney Woods of NE Texas before much drier Artic air arrives Monday ending all rain chance by Tuesday.

Very cold temperatures are expected for mid November early to mid next week. The shot of cold modified Artic Air is rather deep and freezing temperatures are expected up to 850mb or about a mile up. Early morning low temperature reading may flirt with the upper 20's to low 30's Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. The overnight ECMWF suggested a chilly 32F for IAH and upper 20's in Conroe. I will not be surprised to see a light freeze and possibly frost Wednesday morning and possibly Thursday morning IF we get completely clear skies across the Region. The old sub tropical jet may have an area of high to mid levels clouds streaming across the Area that could prevent temperatures from fully bottoming out in ideal radiational cooling. Stay Tuned!

Ntxw wrote:12z NAM. ICON will be running soon. 850mb temps will fall below freezing very quickly and hard when the 500mb shortwave passes through.

https://images2.imgbox.com/13/f5/JOwSBCpO_o.gif

Another major difference from last year is the depth ofthe cold. The entire column is well below freezing before the surface. The dreaded warm nose was always there last winter, not that it ever really mattered lol

The shortwave dug a lot more and looked sorta neutral. Will be interesting if other models look similar