STORM2K

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

869MB wrote:FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

This is incredible, thank you!

Anytime…I hope you find it useful going forward in the future.

harp wrote:As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.

For LA, the SE ridge will slow the cold down. For us in Texas it will just keep the cold shallow. Early to mid Dec seems to be primed for a significant ice event in the Southern Plains.

Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

What happened in December 1990?

No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?

Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

Going by memory of Dec 1990, seems like we had several smallish bouts of freezing drizzle and light snow during that period. Might've gotten down into the high single digits or very low teens. Compared to the cold blast the year prior it wasn't as severe, but this one actually had a little bit of moisture to work with so it made things a little more interesting.

Iceresistance wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

What happened in December 1990?

OKC


DFW

cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?

Anything interesting on it?

Ntxw wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

What happened in December 1990?

OKC
https://i.imgur.com/bDEyayg.png

DFW
https://i.imgur.com/RtI3kGq.png

https://i.imgur.com/YiBq9be.png

Supposed to be a decent -nao setting up and ao in the extended period

Itryatgolf wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:What happened in December 1990?

OKC
https://i.imgur.com/bDEyayg.png

DFW
https://i.imgur.com/RtI3kGq.png

https://i.imgur.com/YiBq9be.png

Supposed to be a decent -nao setting up and ao in the extended period

Yeah we'll have a good -AO/-NAO. Strat PV has been deformed and splitting or elongated of late. May actually see that continue into January.

Itryatgolf wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?

Anything interesting on it?

Ice storm 270-300 hours out

TropicalTundra wrote:

Itryatgolf wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?

Anything interesting on it?

Ice storm 270-300 hours out

Makes since with cold and precipitation if the cold can press far enough south

TropicalTundra wrote:

Itryatgolf wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?

Anything interesting on it?

Ice storm 270-300 hours out

Long duration overrunning event with a big ULL pumping a firehouse across Texas

I still would like to see the EPO ridge area displaced much further east from around Juneau towards the Beaufort Sea. That would be ideal for us.

That's an impressive 5-day look on the GEFS, cold air spilling all the way into Central America.

Cpv17 wrote:I still would like to see the EPO ridge area displaced much further east from around Juneau towards the Beaufort Sea. That would be ideal for us.

What about closer to the GoA?

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:I still would like to see the EPO ridge area displaced much further east from around Juneau towards the Beaufort Sea. That would be ideal for us.

What about closer to the GoA?

Ehhh, that wouldn’t be bad but that’s still a tad too far west but if it would stretch from there towards the Beaufort Sea that would probably work. Just need it stretch pretty far north so it could grab the air from the Polar/Artic regions.

This pattern seems ripe for an ice storm unfortunately. Just look at the moisture feed of late. I'd say if there is a winter storm anytime soon it'll probably be ice. But maybe I'll be wrong... But I'd be surprised if we don't see more GFS runs showing it

bubba hotep wrote:That's an impressive 5-day look on the GEFS, cold air spilling all the way into Central America.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022112712/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

There’s that damn ridge again blocking the cold from coming east towards Louisiana.

Can the SE Ridge in the winter be named "The Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge"?