STORM2K

Brent wrote:Thia pattern seems ripe for an ice storm unfortunately. Just look at the moisture feed of late. I'd say if there is a winter storm anytime soon it'll probably be ice. But maybe I'll be wrong... But I'd be surprised if we don't see more GFS runs showing it

Yeah the SE ridge might be peeking its nose in here. Need to keep it out!

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:Thia pattern seems ripe for an ice storm unfortunately. Just look at the moisture feed of late. I'd say if there is a winter storm anytime soon it'll probably be ice. But maybe I'll be wrong... But I'd be surprised if we don't see more GFS runs showing it

Yeah the SE ridge might be peeking its nose in here. Need to keep it out!

We need to shoo away the Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge!

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:Thia pattern seems ripe for an ice storm unfortunately. Just look at the moisture feed of late. I'd say if there is a winter storm anytime soon it'll probably be ice. But maybe I'll be wrong... But I'd be surprised if we don't see more GFS runs showing it

Yeah the SE ridge might be peeking its nose in here. Need to keep it out!

We need to shoo away the Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge!

Love/hate relationship with the SE ridge. Without it cold slides right off to our east. Too much of it leeches the warmth westward. Need a good -AO to dig the trough behind it for TX. A big block in northeastern Canada will shove the cold so far south though.

Latest CPC forecast is showing temps well above average into December but still has some rain around. Not looking good per the CPC but they’ve been wrong several times before.

Cpv17 wrote:Latest CPC forecast is showing temps well above average into December but still has some rain around. Not looking good per the CPC but they’ve been wrong several times before.

I'm still seeing a huge front here beyond next weekend but we'll see what happens. We all know how the week out forecasts have gone there seems to be a big question how much cold push there is. I'm very wait and see for sure

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Latest CPC forecast is showing temps well above average into December but still has some rain around. Not looking good per the CPC but they’ve been wrong several times before.

I'm still seeing a huge front here beyond next weekend but we'll see what happens. We all know how the week out forecasts have gone there seems to be a big question how much cold push there is. I'm very wait and see for sure

I agree. The NAO is gonna go off the charts negative. Just hope it’s enough to help push that cold air south but long range ensembles do show that happening so I’m hopeful.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Latest CPC forecast is showing temps well above average into December but still has some rain around. Not looking good per the CPC but they’ve been wrong several times before.

I'm still seeing a huge front here beyond next weekend but we'll see what happens. We all know how the week out forecasts have gone there seems to be a big question how much cold push there is. I'm very wait and see for sure

I agree. The NAO is gonna go off the charts negative. Just hope it’s enough to help push that cold air south but long range ensembles do show that happening so I’m hopeful.

Just looked at the CPC Teleconnections, the PNA is expected to go up to sub-negative when the NAO and AO become very negative in Early December. If the PNA is even more neutral/slightly positive, then prepare for a big one!

18Z GFS takes away your ice storm after showing it for several runs.

harp wrote:18Z GFS takes away your ice storm after showing it for several runs.

There is still some Freezing Rain in South-Central Texas

Iceresistance wrote:

harp wrote:18Z GFS takes away your ice storm after showing it for several runs.

There is still some Freezing Rain in South-Central Texas

Keep in mind that this way past truncation. Not until 192 hours on in would we see it show up on models if it's going to happen.

Hmmm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597006511842422790

Itryatgolf wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

harp wrote:18Z GFS takes away your ice storm after showing it for several runs.

There is still some Freezing Rain in South-Central Texas

Keep in mind that this way past truncation. Not until 192 hours on in would we see it show up on models if it's going to happen.

What does that mean?

harp wrote:

Itryatgolf wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:There is still some Freezing Rain in South-Central Texas

Keep in mind that this way past truncation. Not until 192 hours on in would we see it show up on models if it's going to happen.

What does that mean?

Still in the long range on when the winter weather may occur in the Southern Plains.

Truncation is when the models lose tremendous accuracy, usually past 240-252. I think 192hrs is a good starting point imo

Iceresistance wrote:Hmmm

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597006511842422790?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

There’s merit to this because often times there’s a warmup before the hammer drops.

Cpv17 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Hmmm

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597006511842422790?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

There’s merit to this because often times there’s a warmup before the hammer drops.

The only question is how strong will the hammer drop?

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Hmmm

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597006511842422790?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

There’s merit to this because often times there’s a warmup before the hammer drops.

The only question is how strong will the hammer drop?

Yeah that’s what I’m questioning too cuz I’m not really seeing anything too crazy on the ensembles for the south. Just has it getting a few degrees colder nothing crazy.

Cpv17 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
There’s merit to this because often times there’s a warmup before the hammer drops.

The only question is how strong will the hammer drop?

Yeah that’s what I’m questioning too cuz I’m not really seeing anything too crazy on the ensembles for the south. Just has it getting a few degrees colder nothing crazy.

Those few degrees can make all the difference for the weather coming into winter.

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:The only question is how strong will the hammer drop?

Yeah that’s what I’m questioning too cuz I’m not really seeing anything too crazy on the ensembles for the south. Just has it getting a few degrees colder nothing crazy.

Those few degrees can make all the difference for the weather coming into winter.

For your area and far NTX yeah.

Things will remain tranquil the next 2 weeks, with brief shots of cooler air coming in. The real story is what changes are coming around mid month?