Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Tropical Wave interacting with TUTT trough will bring plenty of rain to PR today thru Wednesday. Invest 94L in far Eastern Atlantic has to be watched in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA
LATER TODAY AS TUTT ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 60W WILL ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF PR MONDAY THRU MON NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE OVR THE USVI WILL MOVE ACROSS PR LATER
TODAY AND YIELD NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW PR THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF TROPICAL
WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BUILD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...ERN
PR AND THE USVI AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS HAS
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONTINUITY FROM PAST FEW DAYS
INDICATING CLOUDINESS AND DEEP SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FOR SVRL
DAYS. STRONGLY BELIEVE THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT SHOWS A SPURIOUS H5 LOW AND VORT MAX...A
BULL`S EYE IN PRECIP MAXIMUM AND VERY DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS FOR
A PERIOD TOO LONG. THEREFORE...HAVE IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND GONE
WITH THE ECMWF. STILL THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME SIG RAINFALL
TO OCCUR BUT MAINLY ON TUE WHEN BEST INTERACTION WITH WAVE AND
TUTT ARE EXPECTED.

DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON WED BASED ON THE ECWMF AND PREVIOUS
FCSTS FROM THE GFS AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED THU-SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER. AGAIN THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND ITS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY IGNORED.

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF OF AFRICAN CONTINENT YESTERDAY
IS NOW BEING MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK. ASCAT AND OSCAT
PASSES FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT RESPECTIVELY SHOW THIS WAVE
HAS A WELL DEFINED SFC CIRCULATION BUT THE CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED ATTM. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN A FVRBL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND FAR SOUTH OF THE SAL. SINCE THIS IS A LARGE WAVE AND
LOCATED PRETTY FAR SOUTH IT WILL TAKE SVRL DAYS FOR THIS WAVE TO
ORGANIZE BUT I EXPECT THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 5-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVR USVI...AND EN ROUTE
TO ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. AFTER
18/12Z...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. SFC WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS PR AND EASTERLY AT 10 KTS
OR LESS ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS FROM THE ENE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 18/13Z. INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER 18/16Z WHICH
COULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR TJMZ AN TJPS AS WELL AS CAUSE MTN TOP OBSCR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER
IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 79 / 30 50 50 40
STT 89 81 89 81 / 60 50 50 70

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
20N60W TO 9N60W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 91N-13N BETWEEN 59W-61W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 62W.


If the forecasts are correct, Guadeloupe should get more showers and tstorms today. Let's wait and see.

By the way, Guadeloupe is since 530 AM under an yellow alert for a risk of strong and tstorms due to the arrival of this moderate twave. I will keep your informed if anything happens in the butterfly island.

For those who are interrested (french version), here is the link related to the yellow alert for Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/b ... ilance.php
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf

[Gustywind]

Related to Invest 94L.


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013


...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM A 1007
MB LOW OVER THE S PENINSULA OF SENEGAL NEAR 12.5N16W ALONG 9N17W
TO 4N18W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TUTT ESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 61 WEST WILL MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER LAND AREAS AROUND SUNSET. ALTHOUGH...DRIER AIR IS
MOVING IN AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ALONG 61 WEST...MOVES MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT NEAR 5 KNOTS. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...
TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ENHANCING
MOISTURE ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE WAVE PASSAGE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD IN
ISOLATED AREAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS...WITH VCSH...EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
LOCAL TERMINALS AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES THIS AFT.
HOWEVER...NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THRU 18/21Z CAUSING SHORT PDS OF MVFR. SFC WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS FROM THE ENE WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 18 KT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 2.73" AND 2.27" WAS
SET TODAY AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/IST AND HENRY E. ROHLSEN
AIRPORT/ISX RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AUGUST 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE 5TH WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT IST WITH 6.62" ACCUMULATED
SO FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 87 / 50 50 40 60
STT 81 89 81 89 / 50 50 70 70

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON ERIN
THAT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Rain is the word of order for today thru Wdnesday in PR and adjacent islands as a Tropical Wave interacting with a TUTT trough will bring the inclement weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON AUG 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TUTT
REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. THE TUTT IS TO THEN
SINK SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION AND A BROAD TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 64 WEST NOW
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
TUTT INDUCED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NOW NEAR
59 WEST APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. UNDER THE PRESENT WIND
FLOW EXPECT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED BUT NOT LIMITED
TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO INCLUDE
PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY.

AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN OVERALL WET WEATHER PATTERN TO
DOMINATE THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. SO FAR...BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL...THE MOST ACTIVE DAY SHOULD STILL BE ON TUESDAY DUE TO
MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. FOR THIS REASON...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN
LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK...
AND THEN AROUND TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 19/10Z. ISOLD/SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY CAUSE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR TJMZ AFTER
19/17Z WHERE TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. WIND FROM THE EAST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 19/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 6 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THE
LATER IN THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 2.35 INCHES WAS SET ON
SUNDAY 18TH AUGUST AT HENRY E. ROHLSEN AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD
OF 1.32 SET IN 1994.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 88 79 / 60 40 60 60
STT 89 79 89 79 / 50 70 70 70

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

Tropical Outlook: Wet in the Windward Islands
A trough will bring showers to the Windward Islands today, but development is not expected.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST MON AUG 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DIGGING TUTT
ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 67W
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST TONIGHT...AS
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 67W CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO/USVI.

TUTT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN AN INDUCED TROUGH/
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRADES...RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE
BOTH DAYS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...EXPCT
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH
MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
TJMZ. WIND MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE....MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 79 87 / 40 60 60 60
STT 79 89 79 89 / 70 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A mostly rainy day is instored for PR and adjacent islands as deep moisture moves thru the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO SINK FURTHER SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TUTT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
UPPER RIDGE WHICH NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AND LOCAL REGION FROM THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS...AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW CROSSING THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH...AND
INDUCED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL TO MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ITCZ CONTINUED ITS NORTHWARDS
MODULATION ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT OVERALL
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

STILL LOOKING FOR A GRADUALLY DRIER WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER PRESENT MODELS ALL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SO FAR FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AN EVEN DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BUT THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ISOLATED
SPOTS EACH DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AFTER 20/14Z. EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER 20/16Z SHRA/TSRA AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TAF SITES. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TIL AT LEAST 20/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOT AFTER 20/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFO...PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PRODUCT ISSUED BY WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 80 / 60 50 50 30
STT 89 79 89 80 / 70 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRED DURING MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. AS 2 PM AST...THE
WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WAS WITHOUT ANY RAIN. A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS THE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVE WEATHER...AS THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION...VERY DRY AIR...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHICH COULD INHIBIT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATED A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...OTHER THAN THE NORMAL AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT ALL PR AND USVI TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AFT 20/22Z...
SHRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TISX AND POSSIBLE TJPS. SE WINDS
EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 88 / 50 50 30 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 60 60 50 50

[Macrocane]

A tornado formed this afternoon in San Salvador!!
We have never saw something like this in the city, there are always waterspouts in the sea and there was a tornado near a small town in the west part of the country last year but a tornado in the capital is something unheard of. No damages were reported as it was weak and short lived. These are some pictures of the event:

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED AUG 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION...WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
THE WAVE MAINTAINS A LARGE AREA AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD
TODAY...LOOSING ITS INFLUENCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A DRYING AIR MASS AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO ONLY THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OR TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOV W ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BTW PR AND THE NRN
LEEWARDS AT LEAST TIL 21/13Z. SOME SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR
CAUSING BRIEF MVFR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND SCT-BKN LOW/SCUD LYR CLDS
BTW FL018-FL070. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL OVR ERN PR. AFT 21/16Z
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM OVER CTRL AND W PR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE USVI.
THIS WILL BRING PDS OF MVFR/IFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ESPECIALLY IN
AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ. MSTLY VFR CONDS AFT 21/21Z. LLVL
WINDS FM ESE 15-25 KTS BLO FL200 THEN BCMG WLY ABV FL250.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 87 80 / 40 30 50 20
STT 89 79 88 81 / 40 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST WED AUG 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FILL DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THEN...A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...AN EASTERLY
PERTURBATION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THE CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL HEATING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...DELAYING THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE ACROSS THE ISLAND. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER MAYAGUEZ...ANASCO...RINCON...AGUADA
AND RINCON EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TODAY...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND.

MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE APPROACHING THE ISLAND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN
OVERALL "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...
PRODUCING HAZY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT TJMZ
WHERE AN ISOLATED TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 21/20Z.
AFT 22/06...SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TISX AND TIST MAY CAUSE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. LLVL WINDS FM ESE 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 80 88 / 40 40 30 30
STT 79 89 80 91 / 40 40 50 50

[msbee]

Good evening Luis
Someone posted this on FB, saying "video of a mudslide in Bayamon, Puerto Rico!!!
NOTICIAS DEL TIEMPO:Impresionante vídeo del deslizamiento de tierra en Bayamon, Puerto Rico!!!

The saturated grounds have reached its limit, today a mountain near a residential area collapsed and provoked panic around the residents of the area. The persistent rainfall in Puerto Rico has left the ground very saturated and has provoked mudslides like this one on the video!!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPpvJt5EbQ4

I hope everyone there is OK

[cycloneye]

Good evening Luis
Someone posted this on FB, saying "video of a mudslide in Bayamon, Puerto Rico!!!
NOTICIAS DEL TIEMPO:Impresionante vídeo del deslizamiento de tierra en Bayamon, Puerto Rico!!!

The saturated grounds have reached its limit, today a mountain near a residential area collapsed and provoked panic around the residents of the area. The persistent rainfall in Puerto Rico has left the ground very saturated and has provoked mudslides like this one on the video!!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPpvJt5EbQ4

I hope everyone there is OK

Hi Barbara. Thankfully,nobody was hurt but some homes were partially damaged.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR today as a trough moves nearby. A dry weather pattern will arrive by the weekend with hazy conditions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST THU AUG 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING MAINLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
THE REGION...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL EFFECTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING...SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS...EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH AN EMBEDDED
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OR
TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FOUR OR FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. FM 22/06Z-22/13Z
PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA PSBL EN ROUTE AND VCNTY TJSJ...TISX...
AND TIST. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS. BTW 22/17Z-22/22Z
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM OVER CTRL AND W INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND
MAINLY ON LEE SIDE OF THE USVI. THE ACTIVITY WILL STEER WNW TOWARDS
THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT... PDS OF AFTN
MVFR/IFR ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. MOSTLY VFR CONDS
AFT 22/22Z. LLVL WINDS GENERALLY FM E 10-20 KTS BLO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 89 81 / 40 30 30 10
STT 88 79 90 81 / 40 50 50 20

[msbee]

Marocane
thanks for the tornado pictures...awesome pictures..glad no one was hurt

[vbhoutex]

Marocane
thanks for the tornado pictures...awesome pictures..glad no one was hurt

Yes Macrocane, thanks for the pics!! Those are the best I have seen. Amazing that no one was hurt and there was no reported damage.

[Gustywind]

A tornado formed this afternoon in San Salvador!!
We have never saw something like this in the city, there are always waterspouts in the sea and there was a tornado near a small town in the west part of the country last year but a tornado in the capital is something unheard of. No damages were reported as it was weak and short lived. These are some pictures of the event:

Oh Damn!!! You were in God's hand man Hopefully nothing bad occurs and that's the excellent news