Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Today's 12Z GFS out to 162 hours

SE Ridge is trying to build back in, but I am hopeful the deep Upper Trough across the Eastern CONUS progged currently for the next week will win out and bring cool Fall weather to at least North Florida by Halloween!

[canes92]

That ridge sure loves Florida. If only it would move east, we could get cooler weather.

[canes92]

It’s rare to get cold fronts that produce cold nights and cool days anymore down here.

I wonder if the tearing down of the natural habitat and replacing it with concrete and asphalt has anything to do with it.

[TheStormExpert]

This is just about as bad as it gets in terms of heat and humidity is concerned for S. FL this late in October. Can’t remember it ever feeling like the worst of summer this late in the year. What makes it worse is there is no end in sight!

[psyclone]

CPC outlooks continue to tilt above normal. At least normals are rapidly dropping. so there's that. Our 1 day respite in central Florida was divine. Sorry to you guys down south. Send it back north. we're used to it

[gatorcane]

Today's 12Z GFS out to 162 hours

SE Ridge is trying to build back in, but I am hopeful the deep Upper Trough across the Eastern CONUS progged currently for the next week will win out and bring cool Fall weather to at least North Florida by Halloween!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019102312/gfs_z500aNorm_us_28.png

Euro insists this won’t be happening. Keeps the SE ridge in tact through 10 days. I think some kind of cool down is in order but something between the GFS and Euro.

[northjaxpro]

EURO has the upper trough axis over the Midwest through the Plains by the end of next week, while the GFS has the trough axis primarily east of the Mississippi River Valley by the.end of the same period. EURO stronger with the SE ridge obviously on this recent run.

We will see which one ends up being closest to being correct in the next several days Gatorcane. I just want a cooldown similar to what occured here earlier today for my area for Halloween

[psyclone]

We're getting deep enough into fall that we can get cool fronts and cool downs while still averaging above normal. I'm just hoping for more sane temps...mid 70's for lows with similar dewpoints this late....boo...

[northjaxpro]

We're getting deep enough into fall that we can get cool fronts and cool downs while still averaging above normal. I'm just hoping for more sane temps...mid 70's for lows with similar dewpoints this late....boo...

Yeah,.it is maybe that this past summer was so brutally hot around here in that I am showing my cold bias very much these days lol.. I am too anxious for some cool weather!! This morning was terrific earlier today here. It got down to 52 degrees here at the home station!! I wish I could have sent some of this crisp Fall air down South Florida's way earlier.

[HurricaneBelle]

Well, here in the Tampa Bay area we went from 12-15 hours of fall yesterday straight back into August as it was 92 today at Tampa with easterly flow, and for the first time since pre-Dorian we had our August-like late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms developing on the seabreeze. Had about an inch of rain today and a pretty decent lightning show.

And the GFS, already in disagreement with the Euro that fall would return with a cold front come Halloween, is now backing off noticeably cooler temps. Right now the only thing we have going for us is the shorter day, otherwise it might as well be August.

[psyclone]

Indeed. I was stuck at the Countryside Mall at the gym waiting out that storm as I had foolishly taken a bike there. That storm was borderline severe with frequent cloud to ground lightning and near whiteout conditions at its peak...respectable by mid summer standards. And it was purely driven by summer heat. Completely nuts by late October standards. We have several more days of mid summer temps and dews on tap before some slightly less objectionable air filters in late next week. I would imagine this October is going to be up there in terms of warmest on record...especially with the consistent very warm nights.

[gatorcane]

Yep looks like the GFS is backing off on the cold while the Euro is sticking to its guns.

[psyclone]

Looks like a cool down around month end which should be nice. Until then it's Summer

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I honestly don't think I've ever seen a pattern where FL has been this hot, this long. Lows have dipped below 70F maybe once this month here in Tampa. Although both the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS show some hope at Day 10 for at least a slight cool down.

[psyclone]

90 here today. Above normal temps for peninsular florida in the 6-10, 8-14 and 3 to 4 week outlooks. GFS month end cool down is a fail (shocking I tell you)..but we should see some cooler temps right as we turn the calendar..

[HurricaneBelle]

90 here today. Above normal temps for peninsular florida in the 6-10, 8-14 and 3 to 4 week outlooks. GFS month end cool down is a fail (shocking I tell you)..but we should see some cooler temps right as we turn the calendar..

as we turn the calendar from 2019 to 2020 at this rate

90 again today at Tampa, just had another heavy seabreeze shower go through, and two tropical storms were named simultaneously in the last hour. Tell me again that it's not August?

[psyclone]

More tropical showers are streaming in from the southeast too..

[TheStormExpert]

90 here today. Above normal temps for peninsular florida in the 6-10, 8-14 and 3 to 4 week outlooks. GFS month end cool down is a fail (shocking I tell you)..but we should see some cooler temps right as we turn the calendar..

I hope you’re right! This heat and humidity has LONG overstayed it’s welcome!

[psyclone]

90 here today. Above normal temps for peninsular florida in the 6-10, 8-14 and 3 to 4 week outlooks. GFS month end cool down is a fail (shocking I tell you)..but we should see some cooler temps right as we turn the calendar..

I hope you’re right! This heat and humidity has LONG overstayed it’s welcome!

This weather is nuts! I can't recall such persistent and sustained summer like dewpoints in October before. And it's crowding out the nice weather we typically enjoy during the transitional seasons..

[gatorcane]

It wouldn’t surprise me if we get a tropical threat in November this year as we seem to be at least a month behind on the calendar.