Texas Fall 2018
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- starsfan65
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- SnowintheFalls
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
Local mets here in the Falls are finally discussing not only snow but potential slight accumulations. We shall see though.
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There is no day like a snow day!
Re: Texas Fall 2018
starsfan65 wrote:When is the next NAM model run?
8-9pm is the time you're looking for with the storm hours.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
Ntxw wrote:starsfan65 wrote:When is the next NAM model run?
8-9pm is the time you're looking for with the storm hours.
thanks!!
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
38 degrees with a windchill of 22. Might see some snow tonight. Winter has arrived, for the time being.
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Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
The NWS point forecast keeps MBY below 50 until Wednesday!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
bubba hotep wrote:The NWS point forecast keeps MBY below 50 until Wednesday!
It's really nice not having to look 10 days out for below normal cold .
The rest of the country will moderate beyond 5-7 days but Texas and company will likely be on and off below normal to near normal while above normal further north. Weak-Mod Nino climo ftw.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
Brent wrote:The nam is such a tease
The NAM did this to us a lot last year. However, the soundings actually are supportive of snow when last year the NAM was showing snow despite a very large warm layer showing up in the soundings.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
bubba hotep wrote:Brent wrote:The nam is such a tease
The NAM did this to us a lot last year. However, the soundings actually are supportive of snow when last year the NAM was showing snow despite a very large warm layer showing up in the soundings.
That was Tropical Tidbits graphics not the NAM itself teasing. Its algorithm for snow is off especially on the NAM.
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
South Texas Storms wrote:So the 0z NAM has snow near Austin and SA on Tuesday morning
YEA!!!!!!!
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
starsfan65 wrote:
Is this a trend?
No, if anything, I’d say the trend overall the past couple days has been for increased chances of snow in DFW. There’s still plenty of time for things to change for better or worse so if you choose to be optimistic please do it with caution.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
starsfan65 wrote:
Is this a trend?
It was probably overdone to begin with but you never know. Didnt have support
Things could still trend in a good way but right now it was definitely an outlie
Tbh i wouldnt be surprised either way snow or no snow in the metro there are pros and cons to the setup but just to have a threat this early is crazy in itself
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Fall 2018
As Ntxw has alluded to, we’re in an El Niño this year with an active STJ. Moisture hasn’t been an issue for us this year so don’t be surprised if the models are underestimating qpf.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
On the Nam I am seeing a blob of moisture Tuesday morn pretty close to Victoria and south Texas who will see more icy mix south Texas or Dallas last year the south won
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
jaguars_22 wrote:On the Nam I am seeing a blob of moisture Tuesday morn pretty close to Victoria and south Texas who will see more icy mix south Texas or Dallas last year the south won
I think this year, just about anyone in Texas has a decent shot.
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