Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Oh my,a new record of high temperature was made this afternoon in San Juan with 96F.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES
WEST TO CUBA AND BUILDS BUT LEAVES A TRAILING RIDGE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PASSES ON FRIDAY. A SECOND TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ON THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE CONTINUES CLOSE TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS A HIGH CENTER IN THE CENTRAL
SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF GEORGIA AND NORTH OF THE
SAINT JOHN WILL MOVE NORTH ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO FORM IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. COUPLED WITH TROUGHINESS IN THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 11...
LINGERING ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN...OVER ALL
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE FORECAST AREA AS
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUED NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW. UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF
THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE GFS DISAPPEARED AND WILL NO LONGER BE
A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE IS INCREASING
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN SAINT CROIX ROSE TO 1.8
INCHES WHILE THOSE IN BAYAMON STAYED NEAR 1.4. BUT THIS MOIST AREA
APPEARS TO CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO WILL LEAVE
ALL POPS AS THEY WERE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF MINOR
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED TO THE NORTHWEST SECTOR OF PUERTO
RICO MONDAY...WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. MOISTURE
PLUMMETS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURNS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING BETTER POPS TO THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL SYSTEMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT FORESEEN IN THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&


.CLIMATE...THE TEMPERATURE AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT REACHED
96 DEGREES AT 1711Z THIS AFTERNOON...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 94
DEGREES SET FOR THIS DATE IN 2001. THIS WOULD PUT TODAY`S HIGH IN
THE TOP 32 DAYS OF RECORD. IT HAS NOT BEEN THIS WARM SINCE 18
SEPTEMBER 1995. IT HAS NOT BEEN WARMER THAN THIS SINCE 05 JUNE
1988. IN SEPTEMBER...IT HAS ONLY BEEN WARMER THAN THIS ONCE IN THE
LAST 114 YEARS. FOR THE RECORD...THE WARMEST DAY IN SEPTEMBER WAS
97 DEGREES AND OCCURRED 01 SEPTEMBER 1981. THE ALL TIME HIGH WAS
98 DEGREES AND OCCURRED ON 09 OCTOBER 1981.

&&


.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY FEW PASSING SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL
29/22Z...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL 30/01Z. SFC WNDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

&&


.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOMEWHAT MID-WEEK...BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 92 80 89 / 30 30 20 20
STT 79 89 78 89 / 50 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
920 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

.UPDATE...AFTER A HOT DAY AND ALMOST NO RAINFALL OVER LAND...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE REGION WATERS
THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO SHOWED A SHOWER MOVING INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF YABUCOA AND MAUNABO BUT IT DISSIPATED QUICKLY.
ATTM...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF MONA ISLAND. ACCORDING WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE...MOISTURE/PWAT
WILL INCREASE UP TO 1.9 INCHES ON MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...NO REAL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. BASICALLY... WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TOMORROW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. MINOR
CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ
AND TJBQ BTWN 30/18-21Z...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FM THE SE AT 5-15 KT THROUGH MON NIGHT...
SHIFTING FM E TO ENE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It looks like less warm temperatures will occur today as winds shift to more east direction and cloudy with some showers will help too.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BREAK DOWN
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ALONG 71W TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THEN ERODE MID
WEEK AS NEW TROF AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF 60W.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE WX
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE LATER TODAY WITH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF PR. THIS IS LIKELY TO
INHIBIT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING WITH SCT-NMRS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN HALF OF PR/SOUTHEAST PR INSTEAD.
NOT AS HOT TODAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHIFTING WINDS FROM SE TO
ESE. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HRS AND HELP REINFORCE WRN
ATLC TROF WITH A CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z THU TO THE
WEST OF 60W. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY DEEP AND REFLECT
TO THE MID LEVELS AND WILL HELP ERODE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. SFC HIGH PRES FCST TO EXIT THE U.S. MID ATLC COAST THU WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING
TRADE WINDS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HOT
WEATHER AND ALSO MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS. MODELS THEN SHOW AN
INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN OVR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY VERY WET CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NRMS SHRA/TSRA OVR MONA PASSAGE THIS MRNG BUT XPCT CONT
VFR AT PR TAF SITES. BRF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA PSBL TIST/TISX TIL NOON
IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHW VFR LIKELY TDY XCP INLAND PR IN AFT IN SCT-NMRS
TSRA AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND SFC-FL150 SE 10-15 KT BCMG E 12-18 KT
TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT TUE NIGHT BOTH ATLC AND CARIB WATERS
IN MIXED NE SWELLS AND ENE WIND WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 96F DEGS WAS SET YESTERDAY SUN SEP
29. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 94F SET IN 2001. IN ADDITION...SEP
2013 WILL MORE THAN LIKELY END AS THE THIRD WARMEST SEP ON RECORD
WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 84.6F DEGS. ONLY SEP OF 1995 AND 2012 WERE
WARMER BOTH HAVING AN AVG TEMP OF 84.9F DEGS. THE RECORD FOR TODAY
SEP 30 IS 94F SET IN 2001 AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT A NEW RECORD
WILL GET ESTABLISHED TODAY DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION
INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 90 79 / 50 30 30 20
STT 90 80 91 81 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS EASTERN
HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SATELLITES IMAGES ALSO DEPICTED AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR JUST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AT THIS MOMENT. THIS DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD ALSO BY MID WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...
HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ
AND TJBQ TIL 30/20Z IN SHRA/TSRA. WIND SFC-FL150 SE 10-15 KT BCMG
E 12-18 KT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL COONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 81 90 81 91 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
925 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
DECREASED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. LATEST TJSJ 01/00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWING A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE WINDS WHICH
WERE BECOMING MORE FROM THE EAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL
AS SAT DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BOTH SUGGEST A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STILL HOWEVER
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DID HOWEVER
UPDATED THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. NEXT TUTT INDUCED
EASTERLY PERTURBATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF TH WORK WEEK AS TUTT RETROGRESSES AND BECOMES AMPLIFIED OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

[Macrocane]

Pretty warm in Puerto Rico, it's interesting to read that it hasn't been that warm since 1995

Drier than normal conditions are expected in Central America in the next few days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

NOTE: THE TROPICAL DESK WILL NOT ISSUE PRODUCTS TOMORROW TUESDAY
OCTOBER 1 2013. THE DESK WILL RESUME NORMAL ACTIVITIES ONCE THE
POTENTIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN PERIOD IS OVER. WE WILL PROVIDE
AN UPDATE TOMORROW. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 30/00UTC: DRIER PATTERN OF CONVECTION IS
ESTABLISHING IN MEXICO. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIVERGENT SIDE OF UPPER
TROUGH. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BUT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECTED
ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER DRY PATTERN AS
SEASONALLY DRY AIRMASS IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE...BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN HAS ITS UPPER CONVERGENT SIDE OVER THE CONTINENT
LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY MODERATE ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT
TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY LOCALLY. THE LATTER WILL
ENHANCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

FEATURE OF GREAT INTEREST IS DEEP BROAD TROUGH ORGANIZING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS AFFECTING SEVERAL
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BASIN. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
INTO JAMAICA. A 20-30KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED. THE
JET IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPED BETWEEN 13N INTO SOUTHERN
JAMAICA/JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HAITIAN PENINSULA. MODELS ARE
MORE CONFIDENT NOW ABOUT DEEP TROUGH MEANDERING WESTWARD. THIS
WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE POOL AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS/CENTRAL CUBA BY 36-60 HRS...AND INTO
WESTERN CUBA/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN BY
60-84 HRS. DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF
COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ON DAY 03...AND MOST OF
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR/BELIZE AND YUCATAN ON DAY 04.
THROUGH 36 HRS...EXPECTING STRONGEST ACTIVITY AND LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS TO AFFECT JAMAICA WITH AMOUNTS 20-40MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THE WESTERN
HAITIAN PENINSULA EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
ACROSS THE CAYMANS...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY 36-60
HRS...EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER THE CAYMANS...JAMAICA
AND WESTERN CUBA. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. BY 60-84 HRS EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECTING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS...BUT HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN FROM EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD INTO COSTA
RICA...WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA 20-45MM. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON DAY 04 ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF
HONDURAS/NORTHERN EL SALVADOR AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...WHERE MAXIMA
COULD EXCEED 75MM LOCALLY.

ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ALSO PERSIST BUT TO A
LESSER EXTENT. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS TO REMAIN HIGH UNDER
INFLUENCE OF DIVERGENT TIER OF UPPER TROUGH. MEANDERING MID-UPPER
RIDGE WILL HOWEVER LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION.
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
DOMINATE WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY AFFECTING PUERTO RICO
TODAY...WHILE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH IN WANING TRADE
WIND SURGE. THROUGH 36 HRS EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM WITH ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING A SLIGHT DECREASE
ON DAY 02 WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS ON DAY 03.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL BE MODULATED MOSTLY BY EASTERLY WAVES.
ATLANTIC ITCZ IS GRADUALLY ACTIVATING...TO PLAY A ROLE IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
FURTHERMORE...BROAD BUT WEAK DEVELOPING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH EASTERLY WAVE TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA. EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA ON DAY 02...AND
OVER MOST OF COLOMBIA ON DAY 03. OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
ACTIVE PATTERN IS ALSO TO CONTINUE. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
ORGANIZED MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS YET ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING MODERATE AMOUNTS THROUGH THE CYCLE.
THROUGH 36 HRS...EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA/PANAMA
WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS T HE
NORTHERN GUIANAS/CENTRAL AND EASTERN VENEZUELA EXPECTING
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA 15-35MM. BY 36-60 HRS...EXPECTING HEAVIEST
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. BY 60-84 HRS...CONVECTION WILL ACTIVATE ACROSS
MOST OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN PANAMA TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
36W 38W 41W 44W 47W 51W 54W DISS TW
61W 65W 69W 72W 76W 81W 85W 89W EW

A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 36W WILL ARRIVE IN THE GUIANAS
DURING LATE CYCLE. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE LIMITED EFFECT IN
CONVECTION AS IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BASIN.

AN EASTERLY WAVE AT 61W WILL MODULATE CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT WILL ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA ON DAY 01...ACROSS
WESTERN VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA ON DAY 02...AND ACROSS MOST OF
COLOMBIA ON DAY 03.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
DA SILVA...CHN (BRASIL)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wetter pattern will arrive by next weekend as a trough deepens nearby and that will bring a big relief from the hot temperatures that PR and VI have endured for the past few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST TUE OCT 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WRN ATL TROF WILL DEEPEN NEXT 48 HRS WITH A CUTOFF LOW
FORMING TO THE WEST OF 60W BY THU EVENING. TROF WILL THEN REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROMOTING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL HOT TODAY WITH SCT CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDS. COOLER WED BUT STILL DRY UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGE.

WRN ATLC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/DEEPEN NEXT 48 HRS IN RESPONSE TO
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE U.S. MID ATLC COAST. THIS
WILL ERODE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE LAST
WEEK AND FINALLY BRING AN END TO OUR STREAK OF VERY HOT WEATHER.
TROF BECOMES CUTOFF BY 00Z FRI TO THE WEST OF 60W AND REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ERODES AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF PROMOTES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. SURGING EASTERLIES
WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWAT FCST TO RISE AOA 2.0
INCHES THU AND BEYOND. OVER THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY
FEEDING ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGH WITH
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FCST TO EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIB. THIS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADVECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT SUN-TUE AND POSSIBLY EVEN
BEYOND IF LATEST CFSV2 MODEL IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR TDY WI ISOLD SHRA. MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO BCM
MVFR WL BE TJMZ 18Z-21Z IN SHRA/TSRA...AND SOME OBSCD MTNS INTERIOR
PR. WINDS BLO FL150 E-ENE 12-20 KT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT WED-THU AS TRADES STRENGTHEN.
SEAS SUBSIDE OVR THE WEEKEND AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEP 2013 ENDED AS THE FIFTH WARMEST SEP ON RECORD WITH AN
AVG TEMP OF 84.4F DEGS. SEP OF 1995 AND 2012 HOLD THE RECORD FOR THE
WARMEST SEP ON RECORD BOTH HAVING AN AVG TEMP OF 84.9F DEGS FOLLOWED
BY SEP OF 1980 AND 1982 BOTH HAVING AN AVG TEMP OF 84.5F. THE RECORD
FOR TODAY OCT 1 IS 96F DEGS SET IN 1982.

AT CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91F DEGS
WAS SET YESTERDAY MON SEP 30. THIS TIED THE OLD THE RECORD OF 91F
SET IN 1993.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 81 90 81 / 10 20 20 30
STT 89 83 89 83 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Forecast for some Eastern Caribbean Islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE OCT 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FEW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT LIVED PRODUCING MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A MID TO UPPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL
INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS. THUS EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CHANGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 01/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS BLO FL150 E-ENE 12-20 KT THRU
WED.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 77 89 / 20 20 30 40
STT 80 90 79 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

A Tornado occurred in Aguada on Western PR this afternoon. Some damage occurred but no casualties.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... da-958569/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 PM AST TUE OCT 1 2013

.UPDATE...THE EXPLOSIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FINALLY MOVED OFFSHORE OR DIMINISHED
BY LATE EVENING LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWED THAT THE INDUCED
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUED TO BRING PATCHES OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO REACH PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND GFS LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER ALL SUGGEST DRIER AIR
MASS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH
ANOTHER QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION...TUTT IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME
FURTHER AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THEN. SO FAR THE
INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...PENDING FURTHER REVISION
BASED ON THE NEXT AND LATEST MODEL RUN. NO CHANGES OR ADDITIONAL
INPUT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION AND REASONING AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A more rainy pattern will take shape next weekend going thru early next week as a big trough establishes nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 AM AST WED OCT 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW NEAR 29N 69W MOVES EWD. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP
ON SUN BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PR AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW SHARP DRYING NEXT 6 HRS FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY 00Z THU AS RIDGE SUCCUMBS TO
APPROACHING MID-UPPER TROF FROM THE NORTHWEST. TROF AND SURGING
EASTERLIES WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WED NIGHT-FRI WITH ACTIVE WX EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS OVER LAND AND AT NIGHT OVER THE ATLC WATERS. TROF
DEAMPLIFIES FRI AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FEEDING
IN WILL CARVE OUT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO THE NORTH OF PR SUN. ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFER ON POSITION OF CUTOFF LOW WITH ECMWF BEING FARTHER
WEST TO THE WEST OF 70W WHILE GFS BEING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
OVERALL...EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WX ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE BECOMING DEEPER AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING SUN-TUE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP POSBL BRF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA
BY AFT WEST INTERIOR PR TO WESTERN SHORE...CAUSING OBSCD MTNS AND
MVFR TO ISOLD IFR. LTL CHG ON THU. WIND BLO FL150 E 12-22 KT THRU
TONITE THEN ENE THU.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THRU THU IN MIXED NNE SWELLS AND ENE WIND
WAVES DIMINISHING TO 2-3 FT OVR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 88 81 / 20 40 40 30
STT 89 82 88 82 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Here is a video of the tornado in Aguada PR that occurred on Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=889NGqTQQ7Q

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED OCT 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TONIGHT...AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AS WELL AS WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
90S.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH VALUES PEAKING NEAR 2.2 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT THURSDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNDER A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...
EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED BUT NOT LIMITED TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z ACROSS WEST INTERIOR PR TO WESTERN
SHORE...CAUSING OBSCD MTNS AND MVFR TO ISOLD IFR. WIND UP TO 2 KFT
NE 5-15 KT THRU TONIGHT THEN ENE THU.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW IN MIXED NNE
SWELLS AND ENE WIND WAVES...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 3 FEET FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 81 88 / 40 40 30 40
STT 82 88 82 89 / 40 40 30 30

[msbee]

Here is a video of the tornado in Aguada PR that occurred on Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=889NGqTQQ7Q

Wow, impressive video Luis. I hope there was not too much damage

[cycloneye]

Here is a video of the tornado in Aguada PR that occurred on Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=889NGqTQQ7Q

Wow, impressive video Luis. I hope there was not too much damage

Some damage to zinc roofs and some trees but nothing more.

[Gustywind]

Here is a video of the tornado in Aguada PR that occurred on Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=889NGqTQQ7Q

Wow, impressive video Luis. I hope there was not too much damage

Some damage to zinc roofs and some trees but nothing more.

Very impressive tornado Thanks Lord luckily nothing happens

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED OCT 2 2013

.UPDATE...SOUNDING CAME IN AT 2.02 INCHES THIS EVENING WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO THE SOUNDING FROM 24 HOURS AGO. SOUNDER DATA WAS NOT
AVAILABLE DUE TO GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN. MODELS ARE INCONCLUSIVE AS
TO THE TREND IN MOISTURE CONTENT AND EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WRF DID SEE THE PEAK PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
2 INCHES TODAY BUT DOES NOT SEE THE PEAK OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY AS
THE GFS DOES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A PRIMARY PLAYER THURSDAY AS
A SHIFT BACK TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW MOVES THE PRIMARY FOCUS BACK
TO CENTER OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ABOUT THE SAME COVERAGE
THURSDAY AND THEN INCREASE FRIDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variabe weather between periods of sun and scattered showers will prevail in the next few days as troughs linger nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST THU OCT 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NEAR 26N 68W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THRU
FRI. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTERNOON
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PR AND LINGER THRU MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA WILL PROMOTE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING AND ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TODAY AND FRI TO YIELD NMRS SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND THE ATLC WATERS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED SAT-SUN AS CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FEEDING INTO WRN ATLC LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL AID IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
FCST TO EVOLVE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PR BY MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
AGAIN PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH ACTIVE WX MON NIGHT THRU WED. CUTOFF LOW WILL
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT THU WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDING
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MRNG AND AGAIN
TONITE. SCT/NMRS AFT SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR INTERIOR TO WEST COAST
CAUSING OBSCD MTNS. VFR XPCTD XCP BRF MVFR IN FEW SHRA...MOST LIKELY
MVFR/POSBL IFR IN AFT AT TJMZ. WIND SFC-FL150 E 12-18 KT BCMG ESE
8-12 KT TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT IN MIXED NNE SWELLS AND ENE WIND WAVES
DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 79 / 50 40 60 30
STT 89 81 89 81 / 40 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST THU OCT 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH NORTH OF LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WHILE WEAKENING. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AS WELL AS NORTHWEST AND NORTH PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOTED DOWNSTREAM OF USVI. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 12 MPH OR LESS
WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
EASTERLY WINDS...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED BUT NOT
LIMITED TO CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

A SHORT BREAK IN TROFINESS IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS...AND A SECOND UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SAT-SUN...BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA DUE TO A CHANGE IN SURFACE WINDS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS W PR CAUSING
OBSCD MTNS UNTIL AROUND 03/21Z. THEN VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS ISLANDS
THRU THE NIGHT. WIND SFC- FL150 E 12-18 KT BCMG ESE 8-12 KT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY IN MIXED NNE
SWELLS AND ENE WIND WAVES...DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 4 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 78 87 / 40 60 30 40
STT 81 89 81 88 / 50 50 20 20