Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It looks like the weather will turn more wet starting on Thursday as a trough deepens nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST TUE OCT 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW NORTHWEST
OF PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALOFT WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE ISLANDS VICINITY...KEEPING THE
RISK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM HIGH FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TRADE
WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED INLAND OVER SAINT CROIX...LEAVING UP TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH...ADDITIONAL
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...MOISTURE LEVEL WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AT AROUND 1.5-1.6
INCHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE
AREA COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS COULD ENHANCE ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT FORMS OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW DEEP
MOISTURE TO SURGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. IN GENERAL...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA UNTIL 15/16Z WITH ONLY FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ BETWEEN 15/16Z THROUGH
15/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 78 / 30 20 20 40
STT 89 78 88 78 / 50 20 20 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST TUE OCT 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOP A LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY MORNING...CREATING AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE RELATIVELY HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE MOISTURE IS
LOW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED...INCREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTERACT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF WHICH AFFECTED EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
BRIEFLY THE USVI. IN THE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT WERE MOVING
QUICKLY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LOW AND THAT WAS LIKELY
THE LIMITING FACTOR IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TOMORROW IT SHOULD BE A SIMILAR STORY WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVITY
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY AND DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND DEVELOPS A
LOW AT THE SAME TIME AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MOISTURE
DECREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE
FLYING AREA DURG THE FCST PRD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA OR ISOLD TSRA REMAIN
PSBL TIL 15/22Z OVR N CTRL AND NW SECTION OF PR. ISOLD TSRA MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS AS AFTN CONVECTION FORMS AND STREAM NW ACROSS N
COASTAL AREAS OF PR...ESPECIALLY VCTY TJSJ...TJNR AND TJBQ. SFC WND
AND UP TO FL100...WINDS FM ESE AT 10-20 KTS...THEN BCMG LGT AND VRB
ABV AND UP TO FL300.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH WINDS OF UNDER 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 89 / 20 20 40 50
STT 78 88 78 87 / 20 20 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing moisture will start today and last for the next few days as a trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST WED OCT 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND WILL DOMINATES
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...WETTER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 16/17Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NW PR BTWN
16/17Z-21Z...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN
10 KT ARE EXPECTED BLO FL150 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 76 / 20 40 50 30
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST WED OCT 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
A TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
THEN LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LOCAL AREA IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...
AND FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT FURTHER NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF
THE AREA BECOMES AMPLIFIED AND SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FAIRLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THEREAFTER
WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE LIES JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD
AND ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE MOMENT...
NOT MUCH MOISTURE/CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF IT WAS BEING
SHEARED BY A TUTT ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AS
WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST SLOT OF DRY AIR NOW OVER THE
REGION AND THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHEN SHOWERS DO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

A QUICK SURGE OF ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOWEVER EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY. THE LIMITATION HOWEVER IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS
WHICH AT THE MOMENT DOES NOT SHOW OR SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL SITES. EXCEPT ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ
DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA UNTIL 16/21Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE DURG THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED BLO FL020 BCMG EASTERLY AT 10-15 KTS UP TO
FL150. NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS OR FLYING HAZARDS ANTICIPATED
AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 89 / 30 50 20 40
STT 77 88 78 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING
DEPICTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WAS RAIN FREE.
T OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR OR OVER 2.00 INCHES EXTENDING FROM THE WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW...SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOVING CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Afternoon showers will fall in PR as a trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU OCT 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND WILL LINGER NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AT MID LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...MAINTAINED TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD BRING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLOSE TO THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL DIG SOUTH NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FM 17Z-21Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR...RESULTING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3KT FM THE SW. AS A
RESULT... SOME SHRA/TSRA COULD DRIFT TOWARDS TJSJ BTWN 18-21Z. LIGHT
WINDS AT LESS THAN 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED BLO FL050 THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY. TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 30 20 40 20
STT 87 77 88 78 / 40 40 40 40

[arizona_sooner]

Heavy rain in southern Trinidad overnight and today is a cool, cloudy, rainy day. In all my time working down here I've only seen maybe one day like this. It's a nice change of pace!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU OCT 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW ABOUT 360 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT JOHN WILL RE-FORM JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...NORTH TO SOUTH TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE AREA
UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE LATE FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...AND
THEN DROP TO A NEW LOW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING
THE DAY SOUTH OF CABO ROJO AND OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY
SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SAINT THOMAS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS
BUT HAVE NOW DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART. BARRING ANY RAPID
MOVEMENT TOWARD PUERTO RICO OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND LAND BREEZES
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL SET UP A BARRIER THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM OUT FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS SHOULD
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND
AND...AS EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST ON MONDAY. A DRYING
TREND SETS IN MID WEEK AND ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ON FRIDAY...SO SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED ONLY WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THEN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE
PRESENT AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA
THEREFORE SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY ON WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WHERE
THEY ARE ABLE TO FORM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE FM 19Z-21Z
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3KT FM
THE SW. AS A RESULT... A FEW VCSH COULD MOVE NEAR TJSJ BTWN 19-21Z.
LIGHT WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED BLO FL050 THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALTHOUGH SOME SEAS OF 5 FEET ARE
STILL BEING SEEN IN THE BUOY NORTH OF THE AREA 41043. CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 89 / 0 30 20 20
STT 77 88 78 88 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1002 PM AST THU OCT 17 2013

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WELL SOUTH
AND NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WAS RAIN
FREE. HOWEVER...LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS
DEPICTED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR
OVER 2.00 INCHES EXTENDING FROM THE WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW...SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...POSITIONING JUST OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN AN
UNSTABLE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[Macrocane]

WETTEST DAY IN MORE THAN 3 YEARS IN SAN SALVADOR

The tropical wave that crossed El Salvador yesterday, with support from an upper trough produced very heavy rains in central and eastern El Salvador last night. The rains reached 108 mm (4.25 inches) in the neighborhood of Altos de San Francisco in San Salvador, and 100 mm (3.94 inches) in the SNET station, becoming the wettest day in San Salvador since May 29, 2010 (during tropical storm Agatha). This map shows the rainfall in the country:



Fortunately no deaths occurred but there were some material damages:
-In San Salvador the Acelhuate river almost overflowed so authorities blocked some nearby roads.
-In Zacatecoluca 20 homes were flooded when Sapuyo river overflowed.
-In the city of Nuevo Cuscatlan a landslide damaged the garage of a house.
-In the municiplaity of Colon, the river of the same name flooded 10 homes.

[Macrocane]

The latest HPC international disussion (the first one since the US gov shutdown)

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 17/00UTC: NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH
CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE USA WHILE A LARGE RIDGE
CENTERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS
DOMINATING THE REGION LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND
ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA INTO CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE CYCLE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH VENTILATION
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
DIURNAL ACTIVITY FIRST ACROSS JALISCO/AGUASCALIENTES/ZACATECAS
SHIFTING THEN GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL/TAMAULIPAS/VERACRUZ ON DAY 03. DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH
WILL MEANDER FROM NEW MEXICO INTO COAHUILA BY 60-66 HRS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD WITH NORTES. THESE WINDS WILL REACH
20-30KT ALONG THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS/NORTHERN VERACRUZ BY 60-72
HRS. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THROUGH 60
HRS...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BY 60-84 HRS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS TAMAULIPAS/NORTHERN VERACRUZ TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...SMALL UPPER TROUGH CENTERS OVER NICARAGUA
NOW IN PHASE WITH BASE OF POLAR TROUGH TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH LIES IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS
VENTILATING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM
YUCATAN/GULF OF HONDURAS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE...TO THE SOUTH
INTO EL SALVADOR/NICARAGUA LOCATED CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ITCZ...WHERE MOST ACTIVE SEASONAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS PACIFIC COAST/BASIN
FROM COSTA RICA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MEXICO PRODUCING AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECTING A
GRADUAL REACTIVATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA. AMOUNTS ARE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM TO MAXIMA OF 15-30MM BY 60-84 HRS.
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM UNDER
DIRECT INFLUENCE OF ITCZ.

ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...STRONGEST/MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH EAST OF CUBA WHILE AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-UPPER RIDGE.
WELL DEFINED TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CYCLE FORMING A CLOSED LOW AT 22N 65W BY 48 HRS. COLD
AIR ALOFT AND VENTILATION NEAR THE BASE OF THE TUTT WILL ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ACROSS JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS...WILL BE A WAVE IN THE TRADES TO CENTER NEAR JAMAICA BY 48
HRS AND SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 72 HRS. TUTT WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY ERODE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE CYCLE LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THROUGH 60 HRS EXPECTING LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM UNDER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF TUTT.
OVER PUERTO RICO/LEEWARDS EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM BY 60-84 HRS.

FURTHER SOUTH...PATTERN OF CONVECTION WILL BE MODULATED BY WAVES
IN THE TRADES THAT WILL INTERACT WITH MID-UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THEY WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CLUSTER ALONG THE ITCZ/NET WITH SEASONALLY
ACTIVE CONVECTION DOMINATING FROM COLOMBIA INTO NORTHERN
VENEZUELA-TRINIDAD/TOBAGO. THROUGH 36 HRS../MOST WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VENEZUELA INTO THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION WITH
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. BY 36-60 HRS
EXPECTING HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA REACHING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY 60-84
HRS...STRONGEST CONVECTION IS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA
TO PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALSO BY 60-84 HRS TO PRODUCE
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
44W 47W 50W 54W 57W 61W 64W 67W TW
71W 75W 77W 80W 82W 84W 86W 88W EW

WAVE AT 45W WILL ENTER THE BASIN BY LATE CYCLE. AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...EFFECTS OF THIS
WAVE WILL BE PRIMARILY FELT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

WAVE AT 71W IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LAKE MARACAIBO
REGION/GUAJIRA PENINSULA. THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES/NUEVA PROVIDENCIA
AND LATER INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS COLOMBIA EXPECTING MAXIMA
PEAKING AT 20-40MM WHILE AT VENEZUELA MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 30-60MM.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXPECTING MAXIMA
REACHING 15-25MM. ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THE WAVE WILL
SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The trough still lingers to the north and combined with Tropical Waves will cause periods of showers during the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI OCT 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT EARLY IN THE MORNING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATED. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS SEEN
IN LATEST SATELITE IMAGES STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
THE AREA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH
HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...VERY
LITTLE EFFECT HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FEATURE. DRY AIR AT LOW TO MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LAST
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH...PROMISE TO BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
ADD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA...AND THEREFORE...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH/VCTS IS POSSIBLE FM 19Z-21Z ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 0 20 20 20
STT 88 77 88 79 / 0 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI OCT 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW NORTH OF THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SAME AREA AS IT WEAKENS DURING THE
COMING WORK WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS TROUGHINESS HOLDS NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. A RIDGE FROM THE HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY VERY GRADUAL
DRYING. TROUGHS IN A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEFORE 2:30 PM OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE SHOWER DOUSED MONA ISLAND WHILE A FEW SPRINKLED
IN SAN SEBASTIAN AND NORTH OF CULEBRA. OTHERWISE HEAVY CIRRUS AND
SOME ALTO CUMULUS ABOVE 14 KFT KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE DAY...PREVENTED MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND HELD THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT TO 86 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 90S IN MAYAGUEZ AND IN AGUADA IT REACHED
93 DEGREES. WIND FLOW WAS VERY LIGHT AND CONSISTED MAINLY OF SEA
BREEZES.

MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
OVER THE AREA...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW WEAKER CAUSING ITS
INFLUENCE TO DECREASE. IT IS NOW ALSO SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED. HENCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PEAKING ON MONDAY. A DRY SLOT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF DURING THE
WEEK...BUT THE NEXT WAVE IS NOW BEING SHOWN WITH DOUBLE TROUGHS
THAT WILL PASS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS
MEANS THAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A DRIER SUNDAY.. TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
NOW AND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS AT A NEW EBB.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE FM 20Z-22Z ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING VERY SLOWLY IN THE NORTH WHERE BUOY
41043 WAS REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FEET. ELSEWHERE SEAS WERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 89 80 88 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
920 PM AST FRI OCT 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE BVI WILL MEANDER OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE DRY LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SAT AND SUN WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS. TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 53W IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIG MOISTURE SURGE WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
OUR AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AND YIELD NMRS TSTMS WITH A SIG
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT. AIR MASS DRIES OUT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA FRI INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather with only a few afternoon showers will occur in PR today. But an increase of showers will occur starting on Sunday night thru Monday as a Tropical Wave moves thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SAT OCT 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BUT NONE
OVER LAND AREAS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.
UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOCUSED
OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA TODAY...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR
55W MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BIG
MOISTURE SURGE WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES. AS A
RESULT... EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT XCPT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WI POSBL MVFR TNCM/TKPK.
ALSO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR PR BY AFT WI OBSCD MTNS. VRBL WIND
SFC-FL150 UNDER 10 KT THRU TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND A GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 0 20 20 50
STT 89 79 88 79 / 10 30 30 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SAT OCT 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW 325 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MONA CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AND INTO
HISPANIOLA DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GROW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND THE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56 WEST WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS GREW OVER CAROLINA...CANOVANAS AND RIO
GRANDE JUST BEFORE NOON AND MOVED TOWARD THE BEACHES. THEN...AS
THEY BEGAN TO DISSIPATE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM OROCOVIS TO
AGUADA GENERATING INTENSE LIGHTING AFTER AROUND 2 PM AS TOPS
EXCEEDED 50 THOUSAND FEET FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING LITTLE AND SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED UNTIL 5:30 PM AST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IS
ALSO DELAYING THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT5ED TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER
THAN USUAL. A BETTER MOISTURE PEAK IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THE
THETA-E SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. DIVERGENCE FROM THE LOW ALOFT IS APPEARING OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE
APPEARING ON MONDAY AS THE GFS PLACES THE TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER
PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO RE-
EVALUATE THE POPS ON TUESDAY FOR BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE LOW ALOFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BEFORE THE
SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND MAY NOT PLAY MUCH ROLE
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES WITH
BRIEF PDS OF VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FM 18Z-21Z. ALSO...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR PR THIS AFT WI OBSCD MTNS. VRBL WIND SFC-FL150 UNDER 10
KT THRU TONIGHT. MORE WEATHER TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND 5-FOOT
SEAS IN ALL BUT THE MOST LOCAL AREAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 90 / 20 20 50 70
STT 78 89 78 88 / 30 30 70 70

[msbee]

Good evening friends
We had a lovely sunset and a distant thunderstorm tonight. Take a look at my blog entry today for some pictures of the sky and sea tonight

http://barcann.livejournal.com/281833.html

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
912 PM AST SAT OCT 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE BVI WILL MOVE LITTLE OVR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AS IT FILLS. TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 58W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W FCST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON-MON NIGHT WITH VERY ACTIVE WX. IT
APPEARS WAVE WILL INTERACT FVRBLY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO YIELD
NMRS STRONG CONVECTION OVER ERN PR...USVI AND COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT. RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED TUE AS WAVE DEPARTS. FAIR WX IS
EXPECTED TUE-WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THU WITH MORE SHOWERS BUT THIS SECOND WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS ACTIVE AS THE ONE ON MON. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND
UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
SUN MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FM 18Z-21Z.
ALSO...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR PR IN THE AFTERNOON WI OBSCD MTNS.
VRBL WIND SFC-2 KFT UNDER 10 KT GENERALLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THEN BUILDING 2-4 FT TUE. ISOLD/SCT TSRA SUN
THEN NMRS STRONG CONVECTION MON-MON NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 90 / 0 20 50 70
STT 79 89 79 88 / 10 20 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good evening friends
We had a lovely sunset and a distant thunderstorm tonight. Take a look at my blog entry today for some pictures of the sky and sea tonight

http://barcann.livejournal.com/281833.html

Nice pictures there. That was a big waterspout.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Showers will increase in PR starting on Monday as a Tropical Wave combines with an upper trough.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST SUN OCT 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS OVER SAINT THOMAS...SAINT JOHN AND THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGH ALOFT
WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CORDILLERA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS
NEAR 59W MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING THRU THURSDAY UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL QUICKLY CHANGE WITH A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY
AND A RIDGE PATTERN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DOMINATES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALL DAY TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK BUT RISK
OF MVFR/IFR IS SLIM. INCR CONVECTION AGN BY AFT INTERIOR PR WI
OBSCD MTNS AND VCSH/VCTS AT TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ MAINLY 17Z-21Z. VRBL
WIND SFC-FL150 12 KT OR LESS THRU TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN BUILDING 3-5 FT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 59W MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 30 50 70 70
STT 89 79 88 79 / 20 70 70 70