Texas Fall 2019

[Haris]

I’d die for an inch of snow.

[somethingfunny]

Having to watch a possible storm up north in KS just before Thanksgiving. I am going this year since my mom passed away so we are doing it there instead of my wife's family, so I hope it doesn't keep us from going....but I would love some snow while there. The Euro is currently showing 7-8 inches of snow Wednesday. Man, I hope it happens. It would add some good holiday cheer we will need this year. We are going up Tuesday morning. GFS is also showing the same storm in roughly the same timing but much weaker. Just maybe an inch of snow there.

I'm driving up to Kansas on Thanksgiving... Watching it too. Far Southeastern Kansas though.

[TheProfessor]

The Thanksgiving period is certainly interesting teleconnection wise. The PNA will be going very negative, which supports a western trough and a Great Lakes Cutter, however, if the models are right about the EPO and NAO both trending negative in the same time frame I could see a trough set up further south and east and a storm cutting up through the western Ohio Valley instead of through the Western Great Lakes. Will definitely be an interesting watch.

[TheProfessor]

The 18z GFS is further south with the low, but unfortunately not much cold air to work with. Would have been an insane run for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois otherwise. Either way it looks like I might get treated to a nice rain storm when I head to DFW for Thanksgiving.

[Brent]

The 18z GFS is further south with the low, but unfortunately not much cold air to work with. Would have been an insane run for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois otherwise. Either way it looks like I might get treated to a nice rain storm when I head to DFW for Thanksgiving.

With that GFS track i find it hard to believe there wouldn't be more cold air

[bubba hotep]

According to the GFS, the system next week doesn't have any cold air to work with.



We need to watch for a system out beyond D10, much better cold air to our north at that point.

[Cpv17]

According to the GFS, the system next week doesn't have any cold air to work with.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019111818/gfs_T850a_namer_24.png

We need to watch for a system out beyond D10, much better cold air to our north at that point.

Bad model runs today if you want cold air. Models trended warmer today.

[hamburgerman7070]

This may be a bubba hotep or ntxw question. Is the pna going really negative due to the mjo going to the warmer phases or is it more than just that?

[Brent]

According to the GFS, the system next week doesn't have any cold air to work with.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019111818/gfs_T850a_namer_24.png

We need to watch for a system out beyond D10, much better cold air to our north at that point.

Bad model runs today if you want cold air. Models trended warmer today.

I wanna know what JB was smoking the other day about the snowy setup

[Quixotic]

According to the GFS, the system next week doesn't have any cold air to work with.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019111818/gfs_T850a_namer_24.png

We need to watch for a system out beyond D10, much better cold air to our north at that point.

Bad model runs today if you want cold air. Models trended warmer today.

I wanna know what JB was smoking the other day about the snowy setup

JB is unwatchable. He’s absolutely nuts.

[Brent]

man its a shame there's no cold air... that is a huge rain event on the GFS next week, biggest one of the fall

even up in Kansas it's rain btw so its not even close



Meanwhile the Euro isnt remotely as wet here but looks more icy than snowy down into Oklahoma

both models have highs well into the 60s for DFW Thanksgiving, Euro is near 70!

[TheProfessor]

man its a shame there's no cold air... that is a huge rain event on the GFS next week, biggest one of the fall

even up in Kansas it's rain btw so its not even close

https://i.ibb.co/f0WJCTZ/gfs-apcpn-scus-38.png

Meanwhile the Euro isnt remotely as wet here but is icy down into Central Oklahoma

If the models are correct with the EPO going negative I'd probably favor a colder storm like the Euro shows. It's not predicted to go very negative right now, but it's something to watch.

[rwfromkansas]

I think somebody said they have lost the cold to bring it back closer, so we will see.

[harp]

Folks, lets all remember that we are still in November.....

[CaptinCrunch]

We are getting spoiled with this colder than average November, just remember that low-mid 60's for Thanksgiving is average.

November's current monthly mean is -7.4F while monthly precip is -1.05"
Yesterday's 72/39 avg 54F was 0 DEP from normal. We have only had 5 days so far with normal to above normal temps.

We should be in the positive for precip by the weekend.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Possible Polar vortex beginning of December. I saw this on a local Meteorologist page on Twitter. Intresting...

[Cpv17]

Possible Polar vortex beginning of December. I saw this on a local Meteorologist page on Twitter. Intresting...

I wouldn’t pay attention to any of that Twitter chatter. We’ve been burned by it too many times. I’ll start to believe in it when it starts showing up on the models inside 7 days.

[hriverajr]

polar vortex has not done too much for Texas recently, if I recall correctly.

[Brent]

polar vortex has not done too much for Texas recently, if I recall correctly.

Yeah I'll believe it when i see it

[Cpv17]

Latest CPC forecast is terrible.