STORM2K

Could get interesting out there tomorrow. After a record shattering October, it looks like November wants to get on the board for severe weather, although this shouldn't be anything like those Oct events.


November is usually more active than October for severe weather although that won't be the case this year. 2% tor risk up right now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see perhaps a small 5% area issued for N TX at some point. 0z HRRR shows a couple discrete cells down there, with a squall line for OK. This event won't be anything crazy by any means, but it could still get interesting.

Slight risk is now larger, there is a Hatched area or Hail in Central & Southern Oklahoma, a separate Slight risk is also in place for parts of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, & Kansas.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has gone up for this area for tonight, here we go.

Nothing like a spinup when it gets into Tulsa really didn't look like much coming in

Marginal risk of Severe Storms is in place for Dixie Alley Sunday, first one in December 2021

Slight Risk across most of Arkansas today.

Friday could get interesting for parts of the deep south up to the Ohio valley. Day 3 slight risk up already. Could be the first widespread event since the October events.

Enhanced risk now in place for the Ohio & Mississippi river valleys

There is a literal Hurricane Warning for Alaska right now.

10 hatched tor risk already for Friday. This is going to be a nocturnal event, and will be a dangerous one. First look at HRRR is pretty messy storm mode but HRRR usually isn't great until right before the event so we'll see what it shows tonight.

Quite the large 10 hatched

Moderate risk is up. Big yikes
15 hatched tor risk. This will all be at night so certainly not ideal. This is the first 15 hatched in Dec since 12/16/19 and only the second since 2015.

Weather Dude wrote:Moderate risk is up. Big yikes
15 hatched tor risk. This will all be at night so certainly not ideal. This is the first 15 hatched in Dec since 12/16/19 and only the second since 2015.

This is a really bad for the timing since almost no one would be able to see it unless there is Lightning or Powerflashes.

Tornado Watch out, 90/70% chance of tornadoes, that's really big for December.

Iceresistance wrote:Tornado Watch out, 90/70% chance of tornadoes, that's really big for December.

That's big for any time of the year tbh. But especially for December. The 90/70 probs on this watch are the highest tor probs in the month of December since 12/23/15, which had a 90/80 PDS watch.

Tornado Warnings in Missouri & Arkansas, this is going to be a long night for them.

Jonesboro took a big hit from an EF3 last year and now a confirmed tornado is heading right towards them again...

Weather Dude wrote:Jonesboro took a big hit from an EF3 last year and now a confirmed tornado is heading right towards them again...

It's now a PDS Tornado Warning, it's already very close to Jonesboro.

Radar is showing that it might just barely miss Jonesboro.

Need to watch the Mayflower, AR Supercell, that thing has a nasty hook to it

The Tornado has missed Jonesboro, barely! It was less than a mile from Downtown Jonesboro.