SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Ed Mahmoud]

If I am not mistaken, high moisture levels ( a semi-tropical airmass) and low shear are favorable for tropical funnels.

[srainhoutx]

If I am not mistaken, high moisture levels ( a semi-tropical airmass) and low shear are favorable for tropical funnels.

Bingo. Tis the season after all finally. Cap is removed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If I am not mistaken, high moisture levels ( a semi-tropical airmass) and low shear are favorable for tropical funnels.

NWS beat me to it....

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS WILL SPIT OUT DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...POSSIBLE
FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE CLUSTERS
FORMING WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE QUICK FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...WITH THE CHANCE
OF VERY SHORT LIVED WEAK TORNADOES. THE MAIN THREAT...DUE TO THE
GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS...WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE MORE URBAN AREAS AS
PONDING UPON STREETS AND VARIOUS FEEDER AND LOW LYING ROADS
TEMPORARILY FLOOD BEFORE AND DURING THE RUSH HOUR

[southerngale]

If I am not mistaken, high moisture levels ( a semi-tropical airmass) and low shear are favorable for tropical funnels.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings ... BS/LCH.gif

I guess so. They issued a Special Weather Statement for us at 11am this morning, regarding tropical funnel clouds.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-102300-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY...

AT 1055 AM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE CITY OF BEAUMONT FROM THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT
OF TRANSPORTATION.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARIES
KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COLLIDE.

TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THESE FUNNELS ARE
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FROM INTERSTATE 10 SOUTH TO THE COAST.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX COASTAL AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101811Z - 101915Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS OF SERN TX. ADDITIONALLY...A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS OVER FAR SERN TX AS A SLOW MOVING MCS
PROPAGATES SWD.

MCS HAS VERY SLOWLY CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE SWD IN WEAK NLY STEERING
FLOW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CLEARLY SEEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE MCS. SECOND
BOUNDARY...A SEA BREEZE...NOW SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND INTERCEPT LEADING EDGE/OUTFLOW OF
MCS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE FOR LOCALLY STRONG UPDRAFTS.
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH SBCAPE NEAR 3000 TO 3500 J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD WITH THE MAIN MCS PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TXC167-201-102030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0008.080610T1828Z-080610T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS EASTERN HARRIS AND NORTHWEST
GALVESTON COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ON SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF
WATER WILL OCCUR ON HIGHWAYS...STREETS...AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[JenBayles]

I do NOT believe it! That line of storms completely fizzled just as it reached Bear Creek, only to intensify south of here leaving only a few puffs of dust where the sprinikles hit. Tell me Bear Creek isn't cursed?

[srainhoutx]

I do NOT believe it! That line of storms completely fizzled just as it reached Bear Creek, only to intensify south of here leaving only a few puffs of dust where the sprinikles hit. Tell me Bear Creek isn't cursed?

At least we got 10 minutes worth a bit north of you JenBayles. My yard and plants are loving it.

[Stormtrack]

I do NOT believe it! That line of storms completely fizzled just as it reached Bear Creek, only to intensify south of here leaving only a few puffs of dust where the sprinikles hit. Tell me Bear Creek isn't cursed?

We had a similar experience in Angleton. We did get maybe a tenth of an inch though. 1st rain we've seen this month other than one of those 5-minute light rains that leaves a few drops in the guage.

[BreinLa]

According to my cheapo rain guage we got 1 1/4" of rain this afternoon ahhh no watering tonight

[Yankeegirl]

what a let down... we didnt get any rain here!! storm clouds all over the place, even some lightning and thunder, but no rain... maybe over the weekend...

[jasons2k]

If anyone is interested, I believe the Houston radar is currently showing the bats from under the Waugh bridge (located just west of downtown).

I only got .16" here. Strangely, the Davis guage 1/4 a mile away got .46". I think the wind may have caused a lot of the rain to miss my guage due to the nearby trees and fence?

[r22weiss]

Here in Katy, we got .04 inches of rain. Katy affect strikes again!

[CajunMama]

Lots of scattered showers coming up from the gulf. We had some heavy downpours but it's cooled things off nicely. There's one storm i'm watching that's still in the gulf. The ballpark behind the house is hosting rec ball allstar games and i've put alot of work into the concession stand. I hope we don't get rained out.

[Stormtrack]

It's rather odd. When I look at the radar along the upper Texas coast there are showers pumping up continuously from the gulf on both sides of Brazoria and Galveston counties but the 2 counties never get anything. what's the explanation?

[jasons2k]

The drought conditions continue - from Jeff Lindner:

Record high of 99 tied yesterday at IAH that goes all the way back to 1902.

Strong ridge responsible for the heat and dry weather for the past several weeks remains in firm control this morning. Expected wetting rains on Saturday did not materialize for many as the ridge was just too strong to allow much development. Weak surface wind pattern allowing for daily seabreeze formation…but ridge aloft and sinking motion not allowing more than an isolated shower during peak heating inland and along the coast before noon.

Ridge will shift ever so slightly westward Tuesday and Wednesday allowing SE TX to lie along the eastern edge of “ring of fire” or edge or where thunderstorm complexes will track. NW flow aloft will develop and storm complexes will develop over SE CO and NW TX and NM each afternoon and track SE into TX. Main question is how far SE each complex will make it before it weakens. Models are pointing toward a significant complex to fire over SE CO Tuesday afternoon and track SE through much of C and N TX Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The pattern is fairly favorable for such a system to at least threaten SE TX…however given the ongoing drought I will opt to keep things dry for now. If anyone gets anything out of this complex it would likely be our N and NE counties and not our W and SW counties where rain is really needed.

Drought Conditions:

Per US drought monitor released on June 12th…most of SE TX along and S of I-10 is within a severe drought with moderate drought conditions expanding N and E across the rest of the area. Just in the last week alone, drought conditions have increased from 40% to 58.6% of the state of Texas. Hardest hit has been along the coast where rainfall is running 6-10 inches below normal for 2008. Galveston has had 9.99 inches of rain since Jan. 1st which is 7.80 inches below normal and only .02 of an inch for the entire month of May. Wharton managed only .25 of an inch for May. Victoria has had 10.83 inches since Jan. 1st which if 6.66 inches below normal compared to 30.0 inches at this time last year. Victoria only recorded .33 of an inch for the month of May which was 4.79 inches below normal. Long range models show little change in the upper air pattern and with no significant changes aloft the usual summer seabreeze which brings our summer rains has little chance of providing much relief. Feedback processes continue to increase as noted by near or record high temperatures as the ground continues to dry so does the low level atmosphere…allowing higher temperatures…allowing the ground and vegetation to dry faster…and so the cycle continues until something strong enough comes along to break the ridge or at least move it off the top of us. During the summer months the only thing strong enough would be something out of the tropics or we will have to wait until October when the mid latitude jet stream dips back southward.

[srainhoutx]

Pattern looks very familiar to 1980 around our part of TX.

[TexasSam]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

LAC019-053-162230-
/O.CON.KLCH.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-080616T2230Z/
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-CALCASIEU LA-
516 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CALCASIEU AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR IOWA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 13 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELL CITY BY 530 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.




Severe Weather Statement

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

LAC019-053-162230-
/O.CON.KLCH.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-080616T2230Z/
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-CALCASIEU LA-
516 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CALCASIEU AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR IOWA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 13 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELL CITY BY 530 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Ptarmigan]

Pattern looks very familiar to 1980 around our part of TX.

I wasn't around in 1980, but I read it was really hot that time. There was a major heatwave nationwide. Also, Hurricane Allen made landfall on Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Pattern looks very familiar to 1980 around our part of TX.

I wasn't around in 1980, but I read it was really hot that time. There was a major heatwave nationwide. Also, Hurricane Allen made landfall on Texas.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... n1980.html

What a CV storm that ran straight through the Caribbean, into the Gulf. Very large storm. Filled the Gulf.