Florida Weather

[StormingB81]

Geez, I see no end in sure to this warmth. Guess it’s gonna be summer for the entire 2020 year lol maybe we will have good thunderstorms this year

[gatorcane]

The GFS has completely backed off on the cold.The NAO looks to win out.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What run are you inferring to. The 6z keeps it going around 1/22. I doubt it will be more then a little below normal. But I'll take it before spring comes.

[boca]

As long as the NAO is positive you can forget about strong cold fronts we might get cold fronts but the wind will come out of the NE not the NW.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Telleconnections tend to flip flop alot on every run. So maybe the GFS is on to something. Let's wait and see how future runs go. Just maybe the NAO will go negative. But that's a big maybe.

[boca]

[quote="HURRICANELONNY"]Telleconnections tend to flip flop alot on every run. So maybe the GFS is on to something. Let's wait and see how future runs go. Just maybe the NAO will go negative. But that's a big maybe

There is no sign of that occurring unfortunately maybe by April it will go negative when it won’t matter anymore.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml

[HURRICANELONNY]

You're being neg. on the neg.

[boca]

That’s funny but their was an announcement made a week ago that winter was canceled and by the way New York City will be 64 degrees today,

[TheStormExpert]

At least we can likely forget about any freezes throughout most of the peninsula of Florida at this point. Once February comes freezes are hard to come by in the peninsula.

[northjaxpro]

There is an encouraging sign in the daily GEFS teleconnections forecast indices as the PNA, which has seemingly been forever in strong negative index, is FINALLY showing signs of beginning to relent. The PNA index is being shown to trend positive beginning January 20. The NAO is forecast to become more neutral beginning next week.

This is very important in that if the PNA can become positive, it would allow for some mid-upper level height rises to allow for some ridging to take place out across the Western U.S and into Western Canada, and therefore finally help to lower heights, particularly at the 500 mb level, across the Eastern CONUS as we get near the end of this month. Flipping the pattern to an upper level trough across the Eastern CONUS is what this will eventually lead to develop in time (fingers crossed). Maybe, just maybe, there may be some hope we get at least some type of cool weather to come and take away from this ridiculous near record heat we are having again in Jax today. So far, 81.3 degrees is the max temp measured at my home station. 83F is the record for today's date at the NWS Jax WFO.

Oh yeah, don't forget we have already set the all time warmest max temps ever in Jax for December and this month , January, with 85 degrees in each instance. already in this meteorological "winter" season .

[psyclone]

We're at or below normal on the latest 8-14 day. The ship has been turning and a meaningful cool down is on the way

[psyclone]

This torch has ended up being more transient than it initially appeared. Nevertheless January remains in contention to end up several degrees above normal.

[gatorcane]

Indeed the Euro and EPS have swung towards showing lower 500MB heights over the eastern seaboard with a ridge out west. A pattern change looks to be on the way:

[gatorcane]

Pretty remarkable temps over the eastern seaboard at this hour for January. This is some Bermuda High ridge we are seeing, way stronger than normal.



Snippet from NWS New York:

A deep-layered SW flow and
continued warm advection will keep temperatures nearly steady
this evening and then slightly rise overnight. Lows will range
anywhere from the 55 to 60. Astonishingly, this is around 35
degrees above normal, more typical of late May and early June

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... hlight=off

[northjaxpro]

A new record maximum temperture for today's date, January 12, was just broken this past hour at the NWS Jax WFO.

It is currently 83 degrees there and here at my weather station here at home, 83.4 degrees to be exact. The previous record max for this date was 82 degrees, which was previously set in 1949.

We may get close to the all-time monthly temp record of 85 degrees, which just occured 9 days ago officially at the NWS Jax office.

This is insane this warmth. Thankfully, the end of the blow torch will be coming next week, especially after January 20. It can not get here quick enough!

BTW, we will possibly have record max temps much of this week, and the all-time January max temp mark could get topped her later this week. It is quite possible it may happen.

EDIT: The official max temperature record for today's date in Jacksonville ended up being 84F, just one degree from the all-time record.

[psyclone]

Cooler times are reeling in. rather than a sharp blast of cold I'm anticipating some days where we end up on the cool side of normal...which would represent a massive and refreshing change from the current summer preview...maybe some 60's for highs and 40's for lows over central florida. Typical hoodie/jacket/firepit winter weather florida style...at least that's what I'm hoping for.

[gatorcane]

Cooler times are reeling in. rather than a sharp blast of cold I'm anticipating some days where we end up on the cool side of normal...which would represent a massive and refreshing change from the current summer preview...maybe some 60's for highs and 40's for lows over central florida. Typical hoodie/jacket/firepit winter weather florida style...at least that's what I'm hoping for.

Euro with low 40s for the Tampa area day 10. This could trend colder or warmer as it is long-range.

[floridasun78]

this morning at 6am was 76 that like summer here in miami humidity a bit high too 79%

[Patrick99]

It was muggy all weekend with passing showers. Very tropical-like regime.

[chaser1]

Cooler times are reeling in. rather than a sharp blast of cold I'm anticipating some days where we end up on the cool side of normal...which would represent a massive and refreshing change from the current summer preview...maybe some 60's for highs and 40's for lows over central florida. Typical hoodie/jacket/firepit winter weather florida style...at least that's what I'm hoping for.

Can't wait! I'll order a plate of 69 High's and a low of 48; perhaps served with a side of sunshine