STORM2K

Brent wrote:Can't believe no one posted the 18z GFS its only 360 hours away!

https://i.ibb.co/xJWSmjW/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-60.png

Gospel

lol.. you DFW folks are desperate

hriverajr wrote:lol.. you DFW folks are desperate

Of course we are!! We will do anything for even a taste of snow!!

hriverajr wrote:lol.. you DFW folks are desperate

record snowless streak so clearly we are

0z Euro says happy Thanksgiving not far off the record high of 81 on Thursday

hriverajr wrote:lol.. you DFW folks are desperate

Houston has seen more snow over the last 4 Winters than DFW

Brent wrote:

hriverajr wrote:lol.. you DFW folks are desperate

record snowless streak so clearly we are

0z Euro says happy Thanksgiving not far off the record high of 81 on Thursday

https://i.ibb.co/DM36PQv/ecmwf-T850a-scus-9.png

Way over done, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday still looks to be mid 60's for high's, maybe a shower or two on Friday.

I cringe watching the modeling this morning. The high grade blocking patterns from the West Atlantic and the East Pacific is going to give us some wild (erratic) surface runs to end the month and begin the new month. I would make the argument the blockiest pattern since 2009-2011 period is in store.

Rainy in the 40s and 50s currently. Nice weather to break the warm dry weather over the last few days.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Rainy in the 40s and 50s currently. Nice weather to break the warm dry weather over the last few days.

This warm spell is killing my COLD buzz

Tuesday and Wednesday has knocked down the monthly mean from -7.4 to -5.7 and today is doing it no favors either

Come On December blocking and Snow

Ntxw wrote:I cringe watching the modeling this morning. The high grade blocking patterns from the West Atlantic and the East Pacific is going to give us some wild (erratic) surface runs to end the month and begin the new month. I would make the argument the blockiest pattern since 2009-2011 period is in store.

The GFS is somewhat erratic right now from run to run (not unusual). Is that what you are referring to?

I know it’s fantasy land, but GFS is definitely trending towards large Plains snowstorm between December 4th-7th, with much variance (only 2 runs with DFW snow, but one with 12 inches). Interesting to see how it doesn’t give up the idea.

Cerlin wrote:I know it’s fantasy land, but GFS is definitely trending towards large Plains snowstorm between December 4th-7th, with much variance (only 2 runs with DFW snow, but one with 12 inches). Interesting to see how it doesn’t give up the idea.

I'm definitely intrigued by the timeframe because I'm headed up to Northwest Arkansas for a few days then

But we'll see Thanksgiving looks promising too at one point(which btw is now looking possibly wet)

Brent wrote:

Cerlin wrote:I know it’s fantasy land, but GFS is definitely trending towards large Plains snowstorm between December 4th-7th, with much variance (only 2 runs with DFW snow, but one with 12 inches). Interesting to see how it doesn’t give up the idea.

I'm definitely intrigued by the timeframe because I'm headed up to Northwest Arkansas for a few days then

But we'll see Thanksgiving looks promising too at one point(which btw is now looking possibly wet)

I don't think Thanksgivings realistically was going to do anything wintry. Some time back models were showing a torch the second half of November into early December that has faded mostly away. Some warmer conditions (70s) ahead of a storms is the best it will do.

The TG week duo systems (mid week and late week) will be the door to opening the winter flood gates. Behind them the 500mb pattern over North America will flip drastically. It is starting to look like a persistent ice box may set up.

1963, 1985, 1989, 2009 are all showing up collectively in the December analogs for the background forcing.

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:

Cerlin wrote:I know it’s fantasy land, but GFS is definitely trending towards large Plains snowstorm between December 4th-7th, with much variance (only 2 runs with DFW snow, but one with 12 inches). Interesting to see how it doesn’t give up the idea.

I'm definitely intrigued by the timeframe because I'm headed up to Northwest Arkansas for a few days then

But we'll see Thanksgiving looks promising too at one point(which btw is now looking possibly wet)

I don't think Thanksgivings realistically was going to do anything wintry. Some time back models were showing a torch the second half of November into early December that has faded mostly away. Some warmer conditions (70s) ahead of a storms is the best it will do.

The TG week duo systems (mid week and late week) will be the door to opening the winter flood gates. Behind them the 500mb pattern over North America will flip drastically. It is starting to look like a persistent ice box may set up.

1963, 1985, 1989, 2009 are all showing up collectively in the December analogs for the background forcing.

Ntxw, what are your thoughts on this possible SSW event i have been hearing about lately? Are you basing those incredibly cold Decembers to that possibility or is that not including that?

hamburgerman7070 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:
I'm definitely intrigued by the timeframe because I'm headed up to Northwest Arkansas for a few days then

But we'll see Thanksgiving looks promising too at one point(which btw is now looking possibly wet)

I don't think Thanksgivings realistically was going to do anything wintry. Some time back models were showing a torch the second half of November into early December that has faded mostly away. Some warmer conditions (70s) ahead of a storms is the best it will do.

The TG week duo systems (mid week and late week) will be the door to opening the winter flood gates. Behind them the 500mb pattern over North America will flip drastically. It is starting to look like a persistent ice box may set up.

1963, 1985, 1989, 2009 are all showing up collectively in the December analogs for the background forcing.

Ntxw, what are your thoughts on this possible SSW event i have been hearing about lately? Are you basing those incredibly cold Decembers to that possibility or is that not including that?

I don't believe we will get a true SSW. I do believe the strat vortex will be heavily weakened to start winter. The Pacific is attacking it. The past couple of years it has started out very strong. The troposphere is playing cold this year. It has been easy to get blocks in 2019 as well as the big elephant in the room out there in the Pacific.

If you recall I keep pointing out the IO/Maritime Continent. It is the biggest change in the decadal trend. After so many years of high octane convection over this region, the reverse has happened. Also 2013 is not an analog, but you can expect the North Pacific to be a force like it was that year over and over and over.

Ntxw wrote:

hamburgerman7070 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
I don't think Thanksgivings realistically was going to do anything wintry. Some time back models were showing a torch the second half of November into early December that has faded mostly away. Some warmer conditions (70s) ahead of a storms is the best it will do.

The TG week duo systems (mid week and late week) will be the door to opening the winter flood gates. Behind them the 500mb pattern over North America will flip drastically. It is starting to look like a persistent ice box may set up.

1963, 1985, 1989, 2009 are all showing up collectively in the December analogs for the background forcing.

Ntxw, what are your thoughts on this possible SSW event i have been hearing about lately? Are you basing those incredibly cold Decembers to that possibility or is that not including that?

I don't believe we will get a true SSW. I do believe the strat vortex will be heavily weakened to start winter. The Pacific is attacking it. The past couple of years it has started out very strong. The troposphere is playing cold this year. It has been easy to get blocks in 2019 as well as the big elephant in the room out there in the Pacific.

If you recall I keep pointing out the IO/Maritime Continent. It is the biggest change in the decadal trend. After so many years of high octane convection over this region, the reverse has happened. Also 2013 is not an analog, but you can expect the North Pacific to be a force like it was that year over and over and over.

You know how JB is and he said major SSW incoming but he probably over zealous with that assumption. The eps is not showing a -epo, but the gefs is bigtime. I think the -pna will be an issue for us for a while imo. Would it be a great assumption to say that we are going or fixing to go through the unfavorable phases for cold during the beginning of December, hence the stout -pna?

hamburgerman7070 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
Ntxw, what are your thoughts on this possible SSW event i have been hearing about lately? Are you basing those incredibly cold Decembers to that possibility or is that not including that?

I don't believe we will get a true SSW. I do believe the strat vortex will be heavily weakened to start winter. The Pacific is attacking it. The past couple of years it has started out very strong. The troposphere is playing cold this year. It has been easy to get blocks in 2019 as well as the big elephant in the room out there in the Pacific.

If you recall I keep pointing out the IO/Maritime Continent. It is the biggest change in the decadal trend. After so many years of high octane convection over this region, the reverse has happened. Also 2013 is not an analog, but you can expect the North Pacific to be a force like it was that year over and over and over.

You know how JB is and he said major SSW incoming but he probably over zealous with that assumption. The eps is not showing a -epo, but the gefs is bigtime. I think the -pna will be an issue for us for a while imo. Would it be a great assumption to say that we are going or fixing to go through the unfavorable phases for cold during the beginning of December, hence the stout -pna?

We can work with a -PNA as long as the EPO plays nice. Also doesn't hurt to get some west based -NAO.

Ensembles keep Texas in the Battle Zone in the longer range with the really cold anomalies to our NW and much of Texas in a wet pattern. This is how you get a big Southern Plains winter storm.

bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles keep Texas in the Battle Zone in the longer range with the really cold anomalies to our NW and much of Texas in a wet pattern. This is how you get a big Southern Plains winter storm.

I was just gonna say if it is gonna be cold I hope its not just dry cold again that's my concern its so cold it crushes the moisture

Brent wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles keep Texas in the Battle Zone in the longer range with the really cold anomalies to our NW and much of Texas in a wet pattern. This is how you get a big Southern Plains winter storm.

I was just gonna say if it is gonna be cold I hope its not just dry cold again that's my concern its so cold it crushes the moisture

Therein lies our paradoxical reality.