Florida Weather

[boca]

I’m willing to bet that we will not go below 58 degrees here in SE Florida the remainder of this climate change winter season we are having. At this rate hurricane season should start in May because the temperatures really didn’t change too much.

[mlfreeman]

We're finally in the hunt for a decent winter squall line. The latest SPC outlook includes portions of central florida now...which is a change from earlier expectations...with that zone running west and north of a line from about Daytona beach to Charlotte Harbor.. Long term..Torch watch. Happy Spring everyone

NWS Jax keeps talking about a "positively tilted" system passing by Thurs night, so that probably means squalls in central FL and the line will split in two and skip Jax.

[NotSparta]

This is my first full winter living here in SW FL, it's already a shock to get normal weather but apparently it's warmer than usual. Never had 80s in February before

[Patrick99]

Wow, you guys weren't kidding, past Friday or so, GFS keeps anything well north of us and high pressure firmly in control shoveling air from the SE our way all the way out to 384 hours. A couple fronts try to head on south and get firmly rejected. Looks like another tough to dislodge Bermuda high.....and by the time it goes away, it'll probably be.....March. Fat lady has sung, I think.

[psyclone]

You can bank the long range GFS when it's warm. When it's showing cold...not so much.

[psyclone]

Florida is buried in maxed out warm anomalies in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Torch warnings hoisted. Also the mega southeast ridge will likely deflect rainfall. Meanwhile, the west will be as much below normal as the southeast is above. Sounds familiar

[psyclone]

Ordinarily, such exceptional warmth = bankable record highs but the extreme February warmth of 2018 makes for some tough competition.

[boca]

I proclaimed winter being over back on January 3rd although we had one night of it back on January 22nd. Can we finally cancel winter now.

[NDG]

The Orlando area is going to have a great mango crop this year, and this is from my area which is usually a couple of degrees colder at night.

[chaser1]

The Orlando area is going to have a great mango crop this year, and this is from my area which is usually a couple of degrees colder at night.

https://i.imgur.com/DQXOPT0.jpg

Yep, thank heaven that we've had the few cool down's that we had thus far. Fruiting trees seem to produce a bumper crop of fruit so long as it's been cool and limited freeze events. That certainly has not been much of an issue for most of our I-4 corridor area. That, and we've had plenty of precip too! Boy, was I thrilled to also see our local loquat trees in full bloom recently. Looks like some already have plenty of fruit beginning to mature. 'Nothin better then picking your own fresh fruit too. Though I don't have any of my own mango trees, at least I have a few public spots where I can pick all the loquats that I want!

[chaser1]

As for cold and precip, looks like tonight's late night squall line should bring some enjoyable gusty winds, brief lightning, and 1/2" or so of rain. I'm going to bring in a little bit of fire wood for my fireplace so it doesn't get wet. Next two nights may bring the last of low temps in the 40's & 50's that Central Florida will see this winter. I think there's reasonable time remaining toward late Feb. and early March for a strong cold front to still drop south, but as a few of you have already pointed out..... the mid level ridging and steering flow seem fairly established to prevent any additional Canadian cold outbreaks from making their way into Florida for the foreseeable future. After this Saturday, the next best chance for any cooling moderation of day time temps might be limited to a brief veering wind shift off the water from the northeast middle of next week, but that certainly won't bring any actual cold advection.

You all in far South Florida, enjoy your "one and done" cold front nights in the 50's tomorrow eve. You guys (as well as Central Fla folks) might be looking at nearly a couple weeks before 'old man winter" graces us with one or two minor last gasps of "cool" before official Spring arrives (March 19). Then again, it's possible that Florida's "Spring" may be here now with no turning back following tonight's/tomorrow's cold front passage.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. Looks like a potential very active late afternoon and evening for strong and potentially severe storms as the ingredients ate all in llay actoss the regio .Helecity dynamics along withsttong jet streak and ample moisture and solar heating all point to potential of severe weather and even tornadoes.

A pre frontal squall line is forecast to develop and move across the region, beginning late this afternoon and lasting into the evening hours. It is with this squall line in which the anticipated severe weather will likely take effect. I will be closely monitoring this as the day.progresses

[northjaxpro]

I.e.

[northjaxpro]

As for cold and precip, looks like tonight's late night squall line should bring some enjoyable gusty winds, brief lightning, and 1/2" or so of rain. I'm going to bring in a little bit of fire wood for my fireplace so it doesn't get wet. Next two nights may bring the last of low temps in the 40's & 50's that Central Florida will see this winter. I think there's reasonable time remaining toward late Feb. and early March for a strong cold front to still drop south, but as a few of you have already pointed out..... the mid level ridging and steering flow seem fairly established to prevent any additional Canadian cold outbreaks from making their way into Florida for the foreseeable future. After this Saturday, the next best chance for any cooling moderation of day time temps might be limited to a brief veering wind shift off the water from the northeast middle of next week, but that certainly won't bring any actual cold advection.

You all in far South Florida, enjoy your "one and done" cold front nights in the 50's tomorrow eve. You guys (as well as Central Fla folks) might be looking at nearly a couple weeks before 'old man winter" graces us with one or two minor last gasps of "cool" before official Spring arrives (March 19). Then again, it's possible that Florida's "Spring" may be here now with no turning back following tonight's/tomorrow's cold front passage.

Pretty much spot on about this Chaser.

However we do get at least one good cool/cold spell during March here in Northeast Florida before Spring truly sets in.place. I ecpect that to happen. It does every season here in Jacksonville in March.

Otherwise, another warm winter season in the books pretty much, which I and others have thoroughly talked about of what has occured with the past decade with these warm winters.

[boca]

The 12GFS is no longer showing the SE death ridge which I’m not ready for upper 80’s. I’ll take the cold fronts keep them coming.

[psyclone]

FWIW the latest CPC output took the foot off the gas a bit too compared to yesterday's maxed out depiction. Baby steps. That south wind is nuts today. no wonder they're having severe weather up north today. Lightning data shows our developing squall line reaches pretty far south so tonight should be active over a large area.

[HurricaneBelle]

Yeah yesterday I was skeptical of the some of the models showing 40-50 MPH winds here today but sure enough KPIE gusted to 49 and an ASOS in Polk County gusted to 56 in the last hour and the Skyway has been closed. The surface low near the panhandle is at about 998.

This is some strong TD/low-end TS-like wind event going on and it should continue until the squall line hits which should be fun.

UPDATE: KTBW just upgraded to a gale warning for the FL west coast waters.

[northjaxpro]

I had a peak gust measured at 42 mph within the past hour and there have been reports of numerous trees down over in Alachua County. Winds have gusted to 40-60 mph over in portions of the Suwannee River Valley region, per reports into the NWS Gainesville and Jax WFO and Emergency HAM radio, which I monitor when severe weather threathens the region. Impressive wind, and this is well outside of the squall line, currently developing farther west across the Big Bend region. Latest AFD from Jax WFO are projecting wind gusts 50 to potentially as high as 70 mph just ahead of the squall line later this evening. Strong TS wind gusts anticipated. There is a potential for damaging wind across the area this eveming. Potential also for tornadoes as well, which I touched on earlier today.
It is going to be a busy night at work tracking the severe weather for the area for sure.

[robbielyn]

I had a peak gust measured at 42 mph within the past hour and there have been reports of numerous trees down over in Alachua County. Winds have gusted to 40-60 mph over in portions of the Suwannee River Valley region, per reports into the NWS Gainesville and Jax WFO and Emergency HAM radio, which I monitor when severe weather threathens the region. Impressive wind, and this is well outside of the squall line, currently developing farther west across the Big Bend region. Latest AFD from Jax WFO are projecting wind gusts 50 to potentially as high as 70 mph just ahead of the squall line later this evening. Strong TS wind gusts anticipated. There is a potential for damaging wind across the area this eveming. Potential also for tornadoes as well, which I touched on earlier today.
It is going to be a busy night at work tracking the severe weather for the area for sure.

Now u are under tornado watch as well as marion and citrus counties gainesville too.

[NDG]

Incredible low level jet from tonight's Tampa Bay's sounding (60 knots at H85). I'm surprised they have not extended the tornado watch further south, regardless that squall line can bring down some of those very gusty winds down to the surface, so 60 mph wind gusts with the squall line across the I-4 corridor is not out of the question.
The winds have been unbeliveable strong all afternoon and evening. My sister who leaves in south St Pete and works in Bradenton took here 2.5 hours to get home which usually takes her 30 minutes. Is going to be long night.

Code: Select all

72210 TBW Tampa Bay Area Observations at 00Z 07 Feb 2020
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   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV
    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1003.0     13   25.8   21.9     79  16.80    185     10  298.7  347.8  301.7
 1000.0     40   25.8   20.8     74  15.73    190     13  298.9  345.0  301.8
  998.0     58   25.6   20.6     74  15.56    190     14  298.9  344.5  301.7
  970.2    305   23.4   19.7     80  15.13    195     31  299.1  343.5  301.9
  937.0    610   20.7   18.6     88  14.62    195     45  299.4  342.3  302.0
  928.0    694   20.0   18.3     90  14.47    199     47  299.5  341.9  302.1
  925.0    722   20.0   17.9     88  14.15    200     47  299.8  341.3  302.3
  913.0    835   19.6   16.6     83  13.19    200     49  300.5  339.4  302.8
  904.6    914   18.9   16.3     85  13.06    200     51  300.5  339.0  302.8
  882.0   1132   16.8   15.5     92  12.71    204     56  300.5  338.1  302.8
  873.0   1219   16.3   15.0     92  12.43    205     58  300.9  337.7  303.1
  850.0   1447   15.0   13.7     92  11.72    205     60  301.9  336.7  304.0