Texas Spring-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well TeamPlayersBlue weather center is ready for some action. Got a little last weekend but nothing like what were expecting.


Loving the WS 1400 weather station i got, really happy with it so far.

[Ntxw]

Check out the Euro forecast. To end May and start June an ULL parks itself over Texas day after day of rain, and check out the west coast of Mexico. In approaching big hurricane with the weakness over Texas. The euro is usually not excited about showing tropical systems like the GFS, when it does you listen. We have an invest now in the EPAC. If this happens, the rains we've just had is just the beginning.

[TheProfessor]

my goodness flooding is going to get real bad if that pans out.

[Texas Snowman]

Texoma's inflow continues to go up, now at 145,000 CFS vs. a discharge at Denison Dam of 45,000 CFS.

Corps of Engineers predicting spillway overflow by sometime Sunday. KXII--TV met Tom Hale says he thinks it will happen by sometime tomorrow evening.

BTW, a spillway cam will be operable on KXII.com beginning tomorrow.

Finally, the AC Weather Station west of Sherman recorded .63 inches of rain today. That brings the total for May 2015 to an amazing 11.11 inches.

And counting.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Severe storms too, mad lift out of that system.

[Brent]

Just noticed in the aviation discussion:

If we get a period like that of thunderstorms it's gonna be badddd...

AFTER NOON ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER
TEXAS FROM WEST TO EAST...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLY ANYTIME ON SATURDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AT ALL AREA
AIRPORTS SATURDAY NIGHT. DID NOT PLACE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE MANY HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

DID NOT WANT TO ADVERTISE 10 TO 12 HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A RARE SITUATION WHERE THIS IS ACTUALLY
POSSIBLE. ANY RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIKELY IFR
VISIBILITIES. WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN AT THE
END OF THE DFW TAF. BEST WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AT
AREA TAF SITES APPEARS TO BE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO 15Z SUNDAY AT
THIS TIME.

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE TAFS WILL LIKELY BE BUSY AND AMENDED FREQUENTLY
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[KatDaddy]

A beautiful Saturday morning across SE TX but changes are a coming. A significant flood event along with severe weather continue to look possible Sunday through Tuesday. The size of the Flash Flood Watch has increased in coverage across TX and OK. I don't believe I have ever seen such a large Flash Flood Watch. Just about all of TX and OK are under a Flash Flood Watch through the Memorial holiday. All but far W TX and extreme N Panhandle are not included in this watch. In addition, the SPC has highlighted a large portion of TX for a slight risk area. This includes SE TX and the Upper TX Coast for Sunday and Monday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. For now, get outside and enjoy the mostly sunny morning skies.

[Ntxw]

Stay safe and don't drive across flooded roads even if you think you can make it this memorial day weekend. The most embarrassing thing is having to be rescued because your car gets stuck of an unnecessary decision.

Texoma continues to inch ever so closer. Pretty soon we'll have another Lake right next to it at this rate on the other side of the spillway.

I decided to shift through FW NWS data and looked at this year's cloud trends at DFW. I think the results are pretty clear El Nino has been well in control for a while. What does the sun even look like anymore?



Partly/Mostly Cloudy days to date in 2015 (142 days total) - 110

Clear days/sunshine - 32

Days with mostly cloudy (likely with some kind of qpf) - 57


__________________
April and May in particular have been harsh on sunny days

Partly/Mostly cloudy - 45

Clear - 7

[Texas Snowman]

Lots of flooding rain in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles overnight.

This is in Texas County, Oklahoma.

Dust Bowl Country. But not today.

-----
@spotternetwork: Evnt 0 miles ENE of HOOKER, OK @ 01:31PM UTC FFlood>-3 to 3 1/2 feet of moving water on the roadway. At the intersection of Illinois and S

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Stay safe and don't drive across flooded roads even if you think you can make it this memorial day weekend. The most embarrassing thing is having to be rescued because your car gets stuck of an unnecessary decision.

Texoma continues to inch ever so closer. Pretty soon we'll have another Lake right next to it at this rate on the other side of the spillway.

I decided to shift through FW NWS data and looked at this year's cloud trends at DFW. I think the results are pretty clear El Nino has been well in control for a while. What does the sun even look like anymore?



Partly/Mostly Cloudy days to date in 2015 (142 days total) - 110

Clear days/sunshine - 32

Days with mostly cloudy (likely with some kind of qpf) - 57


__________________
April and May in particular have been harsh on sunny days

Partly/Mostly cloudy - 45

Clear - 7

I would really like to see this for Houston. We seriously dont see the sun after 10 am anymore. Ever.

[Ntxw]

I would really like to see this for Houston. We seriously dont see the sun after 10 am anymore. Ever.

Houston (IAH) to date

Partly/Mostly Cloudy days - 127
Clear days - 15

Days with QPF 0.01 or more - 58

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I would really like to see this for Houston. We seriously dont see the sun after 10 am anymore. Ever.

Houston (IAH) to date

Partly/Mostly Cloudy days - 127
Clear days - 15

Days with QPF 0.01 or more - 58

Depression.

[Ntxw]

Posted this in the EPAC thread thought I'd share here. We have a very strong convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (blues and purples) moving through which will spawn the first tropical system there. Lots of rising air below us in the Nino 3 and 1+2 regions. Rising air means rain.

[Ntxw]

HRRR animation for this evening. A lot of flood warnings will go up and down the I-35 and eventually I-45 corridors. Mesoscale features may dump some 5-8 inch totals.

HRRR

Edit: Fixed the link

[Houstonia]

hey y'all - travel question here,,,

I am going to be returning from Memphis back to Houston and I'm becoming rapdily concerned.

I am planning on leaving super early Tuesday morning (like around 3-4 am). That's going to put me at Texarkana at around 8-9 am or later.

I was planning on taking 59 down into Houston, but now thinking I should go i-10 instead?

What are your opinions? Am I going to get rained out? will the Sabine flood I-10 or the Trnity flood 59? Enquiring minds need to know!!

[Ntxw]

hey y'all - travel question here,,,

I am going to be returning from Memphis back to Houston and I'm becoming rapdily concerned.

I am planning on leaving super early Tuesday morning (like around 3-4 am). That's going to put me at Texarkana at around 8-9 am or later.

I was planning on taking 59 down into Houston, but now thinking I should go i-10 instead?

What are your opinions? Am I going to get rained out? will the Sabine flood I-10 or the Trnity flood 59? Enquiring minds need to know!!

Just personal opinion I would trust I-10 since it is a major interstate. I think you'll be fine either or just be careful and watch for road closures.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Saw the HRRR earlier, doesnt look pretty at all

[high_lander]

If the Nino stays strong for us into the Winter, what would it look like?

Also, I remember the El Nino of 98-99, as I grew up in So Cal. My wife and I and just started dating and we could never go do anything outdoors as it was constantly raining. There was a landslide up near Santa Barbara that claimed half a town and some lives. Seems you could could tell the amount of rain we would get in Winter/Spring, by the amount of wildfires. More fires=more rain, the mudslides would commence since there was no vegetation left after the fires.

[gboudx]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Saturday, 23 May 2015 13:23 CDT

Good afternoon,

We've been advertising a significant threat for hazardous weather over this Memorial Day Weekend, and the pattern is developing as expected. We will have all the ingredients for heavy rainfall and at least isolated severe weather: Copious moisture, good instability, and strong lift. This e-mail keys on a few locations and times where we have greater confidence in the development of flash flooding and severe weather. However, from this point on, it will be important to begin monitoring radar, our watches, warnings, and advisories, and NWSChat for critical short-term updates.

BOTTOM LINE:

We've been saying it for the past couple of days, and it still holds: This will be an “all hands on deck” holiday weekend for weather. Flash flooding and severe weather will both be significant risks for all of North and Central Texas. Those charged with making decisions in the interest of public safety should now be monitoring the current conditions warnings and forecasts closely through Monday night. DO NOT HESITATE to contact WFO Fort Worth by NWSChat or phone if you have any needs whatsoever.

TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THREATS:

THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage and intensity over most of North and Central Texas by late afternoon/early evening. We expect the thunderstorms west of a Bowie to Comanche line to be stronger in general, with a greater potential for hail or damaging winds. From 7 pm onward overnight, the storms will likely coalesce into a broad, slow-moving, north-south band over portions of North Texas - most likely along or just west of the I-35/I-35W/E corridor from Gainesville to DFW to Temple/Killeen. The greatest threat of intense rainfall (isolated amounts in excess of 4") and significant flash flooding will be primarily along and north of a Comanche to Corsicana to Paris line. All areas of North and Central Texas are under a Flash Flood Watch, and have at least some flash flood threat tonight, however. This band will march slowly eastward overnight.
SUNDAY: Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across most of North and Central Texas - with the greatest ongoing threat for flash flooding occurring east of the I-35 corridor prior to Noon. As we get later in the afternoon and the atmosphere begins to heat up and destabilize, a renewed severe weather threat will develop farther west - mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor from Gainesville to Temple. Large hail and damaging winds will remain the key threat into the evening hours.
MEMORIAL DAY: Monday will not be an all-day washout. Much of North and Central Texas will go through the morning and parts of the afternoon without much rain. However, another strong upper level impulse will be moving into Texas by afternoon, and we do expect a new round of showers and thunderstorms to affect much of our region from mid/late afternoon onward through the overnight period. Additional isolated heavy rainfall is expected over North Texas - most likely east of the I-35 corridor. Also, due to increased wind shear and instability, there will be a renewed threat of severe thunderstorms across all of North and Central Texas, with large hail and winds being the main threat.
CONFIDENCE:

Our confidence is high - 9 on a 10 point scale - that some locations in North and Central Texas are going to have excessive rainfall and renewed flash flooding tonight and early Sunday. Our confidence in the precise locations is also moderate to high.

There is one scenario that would result in reduced rainfall amounts for our region. If large clusters of thunderstorms begin to form over the Hill Country or along the Gulf Coast later today/tonight, that could cut off some of the moisture that would fuel our storms. This is unlikely to occur, but is possible (and probably welcome).

USEFUL WEBSITES:

National Weather Service Fort Worth home page

National Weather Service Fort Worth Graphical Warnings

Hourly Forecasts (click to choose your location):

National Weather Service Enhanced Decision Support Page (experimental)

National Weather Service Fort Worth Hazard Pages

Emergency Management Weather Briefing Page

West Gulf River Forecast Center HydroMet Discussion (issued daily by 11 AM)

Hydro Decision Support Tool at WGRFC to create a customer specific map

We'll re-emphasize it here: A significant threat of flash flooding will exist for all of North and Central Texas over this holiday weekend. Please consider how this will impact your activities and jurisdictions. Please DO NOT HESITATE to contact our operations area here at WFO Fort Worth if you need any further information. We intend to put out another update during the day on Sunday.

Thanks,

Tom Bradshaw

--
Tom Bradshaw
Meteorologist-in-Charge
WFO Dallas Fort Worth
National Weather Service

[Brent]

If the Nino stays strong for us into the Winter, what would it look like?

Also, I remember the El Nino of 98-99, as I grew up in So Cal. My wife and I and just started dating and we could never go do anything outdoors as it was constantly raining. There was a landslide up near Santa Barbara that claimed half a town and some lives. Seems you could could tell the amount of rain we would get in Winter/Spring, by the amount of wildfires. More fires=more rain, the mudslides would commence since there was no vegetation left after the fires.

El Nino is usually very active in the southern US with huge storms in California and it's typically quite snowy compared to average further east.

on another note, looking at radar, we may see training starting over eastern portions of the metroplex quite soon.