STORM2K

Upper 40's with some off and on light rain in this early a.m. Radar not overly impressive but some heavier showers are building to the northwest.

Pretty good agreement between the 00z Euro EPS and GEFS that a pattern will develop in early December that could lock in significant cold for an extended period of time.

00z EPS



00z GEFS

Stock up on firewood now, December is looking awesome

If NTX does end up as the battle ground area, it's been a long time since we had a true ice storm.........

Looks like the 500mb pattern setting up for Early December is loading up to unleash some Arctic air....

Looking at the individual 6zGFS Ensemble Members there is one member that has a low of 20 for Edinburg....single digits in San Antonio...below zero for Dallas for Friday Saturday December 7-8.

Rgv20 wrote:Looks like the 500mb pattern setting up for Early December is loading up to unleash some Arctic air....

Looking at the individual 6zGFS Ensemble Members there is one member that has a low of 20 for Edinburg....single digits in San Antonio...below zero for Dallas for Friday Saturday December 7-8.

That’s just ridiculous.

The 12Z GFS is not as kind....

harp wrote:The 12Z GFS is not as kind....

The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away.

EDIT: That being said, the 500mb pattern still looks promising and the source region in Canada is getting colder throughout the run.

harp wrote:The 12Z GFS is not as kind....

We are still solidly in ensemble range.

It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.

dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png

Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?

rendihess wrote:

dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png

Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?

dhweather is just being sarcastic. It goes back a long way.

Cpv17 wrote:

rendihess wrote:

dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png

Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?

dhweather is just being sarcastic. It goes back a long way.

Yes, the CAT 5 IN THE GULF is dhweather's legend signature. I think it goes back to before I started looking on this forum.

The Thanksgiving holidays for DFW is looking to be wet and cool with a 50% of rain and a high in the upper 50s on Thanksgiving. A matter of fact it's looking wet Wednesday thru the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday next week will be back in the low 70s before the Pacific storm system moves in Wednesday with highs back in the upper 50s.

Pattern turns back to cold by the first weekend of December, and beyond.

Cpv17 wrote:

rendihess wrote:

dhweather wrote:It's only 384 hours out - but the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019112212/gfs_mslp_uv850_namer_65.png

Sorry I am not a meteorologist or anything of the sort I just love weather. With that being said why is there excitement when there is a Category 5 in the gulf?

dhweather is just being sarcastic. It goes back a long way.

Just now realized you and I started our accounts on the same exact day what a coincidence

Praying y'all are all correct. The cynical side of me is skeptical of anything beyond 7 days but we shall see!

Haris wrote:Praying y'all are all correct. The cynical side of me is skeptical of anything beyond 7 days but we shall see!

I'm definitely still skeptical myself been burned too many times

fairly big front at the end of the Euro(this would be Dec 1-2 earlier than the timeframe talked about) but its not as cold as we were a couple weeks ago

DFW made it down to 34F this morning. Not quite a freeze but close, the GFS about 24 hours ago had a forecasted low of around 40-43F. It was quite chilly yesterday and coolish today.

Once again cold will come easy this season.

Reminder we will be moving to the Winter Thread next Sunday ending meteorological Fall and starting meteorological Winter.

Ntxw wrote:DFW made it down to 34F this morning. Not quite a freeze but close, the GFS about 24 hours ago had a forecasted low of around 40-43F. It was quite chilly yesterday and coolish today.

Once again cold will come easy this season.

Reminder we will be moving to the Winter Thread next Sunday ending meteorological Fall and starting meteorological Winter.

Ntxw, winter hasnt started yet lol. I still think it's a late starter, despite tropical forcing being west of dateline. I am still clueless on evolution on the mjo.

hamburgerman7070 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:DFW made it down to 34F this morning. Not quite a freeze but close, the GFS about 24 hours ago had a forecasted low of around 40-43F. It was quite chilly yesterday and coolish today.

Once again cold will come easy this season.

Reminder we will be moving to the Winter Thread next Sunday ending meteorological Fall and starting meteorological Winter.

Ntxw, winter hasnt started yet lol. I still think it's a late starter, despite tropical forcing being west of dateline. I am still clueless on evolution on the mjo.

Don't worry about the MJO. The MJO is only useful once we understand the low frequency background state. I have learned over the years you must account for tropical forcing. The MJO will be incoherent until it hits that west-central Pacific warm pool and will amplify to juice the pattern. In 2019 when the MJO passes the Indian Ocean and Indonesia it will be weak due to the stagnant cooling in that region.

Made it down to 42 at my place this morning.