Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST WED JUN 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION...THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY . THEREAFTER WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK... AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION ...WHILE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCTS
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DRIER AIR WITH TRACES OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN
WHILE PULLING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD ALOFT AND
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN DOING SO...EXPECT INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND CONSEQUENTLY A STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE
WIND INVERSION CAP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
THE LOCAL EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PROPAGATION OF WEAK
EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING PATCHES OF
SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING THE PERTURBATIONS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS IF
ANY SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY BETWEEN EASTERN PR
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS PORTION ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE ISLANDS EACH MORNING. DURING THE DAYTIME....MOSTLY STREAMER LIKE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN SIGHT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
05/22Z EXCEPT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER NW PR...SHRA WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FROM 04/20 TO
05/01Z AND FROM 05/18Z TO 05/22Z OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW 6 FEET...WITH
CARIBBEAN SEAS AT 4 FEET OR BELOW VICINITY OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND SAINT THOMAS. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT LEAVING ONLY INCREASING EASTERLY WIND WAVES WITH A PERIOD
OF 8 TO 9 SECONDS OR SO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RISK OF FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS OF PR AND VIEQUES...AS TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHES AND THE OVERALL AIR MASS LAYER CONTINUES TO DRY OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER. RH
VALUES IN THESE AREAS CONTINUE TO DECLINE AND FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will fall in the afternoon in PR not it will be mainly dry and warm.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST THU JUN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND/BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM MODERATE
TO FRESH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN IS CREATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THAT IS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN AREA DEEPER MOISTURE OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES UPSTREAM OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCED THE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH...
SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MAY LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND....MID-LEVEL/SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THIS IS TO
STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NAAPS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMALL CONCENTRATIONS
OF DUST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH
VCSH DUE TO QUICK PASSING SHRA IN THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDINESS AND
SHRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 05/18Z-05/22Z. LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS INDICATED SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET. NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN THE SEAS BETWEEN
4-6 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 30 30 30 10
STT 87 78 86 79 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU JUN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NE WHILE FILLING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ALL OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOW IN PLACE WILL
LIMIT/SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO LIGHT SHALLOW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SAT AS BAHAMAS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST.

A VERY ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK GREATLY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WHILE ADIABATIC WARMING BENEATH SUBSIDING AIR MASS
RESULTS IN HOT TEMPERATURES. A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST TO THE
EAST OF 40W WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA MID NEXT WEEK AND ACT TO
FURTHER SUPPRESS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MULTIPLE RED FLAG DAYS
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK STARTING SUNDAY. OVERALL...PATTERN IS A
VERY HOT AND DRY ONE WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAIN AND VIEQUES WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES IN THE TROP ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS PRD. HOWEVER...
SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH CLD LYRS BTW FL150-FL250 WILL CONT TO STEER ENE
ACROSS FLYING AREA. SCT-BKN LOW LEVEL CLDS MOV E AT 15-25 KTS AND
MAINLY BTW FL020-FL080 WITH FEW EMBEDDED SHRA/ISOLD TCU EN ROUTE BTW
ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FCST
ASSESSMENT TOOL SUGGEST HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS PSBL
MAINLY BTW ERN PR AND VI DUE TO WIND PROFILE AND STEERING FLOW. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT IN SUBSIDING NORTH SWELLS
AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEMPER/MITIGATE FIRE DANGER
FRI AND SAT. ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY TOP TO
BOTTOM WITH A MINIMA IN PWAT. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN SOME...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET RED
FLAG CRITERIA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY NOW ON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND VIEQUES. FUELS ACROSS THE REST OF PR
ARE GREENER THAN NORMAL DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL MAY RAINS ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTH SLOPES ARE BEGINNING TO DRY OUT TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 91 / 10 10 10 10
STT 79 87 79 87 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Mainly dry and warm weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST FRI JUN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW/TROUGH JUST NORTH OF HISPANOLA WILL FILL
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIMITING THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
DURING THE WEEKEND...BRISK EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS LOCALLY FRESH
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THE EXPANSION
OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
CAP ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUE TO EXPECT A RELATIVELY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
OR SO. HOWEVER...WE CANT RULE OUT...LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...
A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...ONCE AGAIN SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS CREATING AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
WITH VCSH DUE TO QUICK PASSING SHRA IN THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDINESS
AND SHRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 06/18Z-06/22Z. LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTH SWELLS THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SUBSIDED. AT THIS TIME...MAINLY WIND-SEAS
DOMINATES THE LOCAL WATERS. OVERALL...SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE SEAS OF 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SEA STATE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST FRI JUN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BRINGING EAST WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW...TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL AREA OF DUST POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY...CLEARING ON MONDAY THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST
COMING IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WERE
OBSERVED TODAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE 06/12Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A PRETTY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...FOR THAT REASON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...AS THE MOISTURE IS ALSO SHALLOW.

MOISTURE INCREASES A LITTLE ON SATURDAY WITH ALSO AN INVERSION IN
THE FORECAST SOUNDING BUT THE MOISTURE COLUMN IN A BIT HIGHER THAN
IT WAS TODAY. HOWEVER NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START FAIRLY DRY BUT
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAAPS MODEL ALSO
SHOWING SOME DUST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
WITH ISOLD QUICK PASSING SHRA WRN PR AND MVFR CIGS ARND TJMZ AFT
06/18Z AND ENDING ARND 07/00Z. AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS TIL07/02Z. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 3 TO 5 FEET FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAINING
MODERATE TO FRESH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT ON
SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 88 / 20 20 10 10
STT 78 88 79 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another mainly dry and warm day is expected today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SAT JUN 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BRINGING EAST WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW...TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL AREA OF DUST POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY...CLEARING
ON MONDAY THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST COMING IN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. A DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WHICH LIMITED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIMITING THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN....ALTHOUGH FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER BRISK EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND USVI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOONS...BUT OVERALL A DRY WEATHER REGIME WILL PREVAIL.
NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL
MODEL INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF DUST IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY...BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREVIOUS DAYS. IN THE LONG
TERM...TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ BTWN 18-21Z...PRODUCING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 77 / 20 10 10 20
STT 88 79 89 80 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST SAT JUN 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...SEVERAL WEAK LOWS WILL PASS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
FORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AROUND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO MID
WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. DRIER
AIR DOMINATES THE MID LEVELS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE LOCAL TRADE
WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THEY
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH NO
PARTICULAR ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS BEGAN FORMING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS
SHOWERS DECREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
1850Z TOPS WERE AS HIGH AS 31 KFT...THOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAD BEEN
DETECTED. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH PAST
SUNSET AS MID LEVELS...THAT IS...THE LAYER BETWEEN 6500 TO AROUND
22 KFT IS RELATIVELY DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LEAVING LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS AROUND
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN USUAL. BEST COLUMNAR MOISTURE WILL BE
TUESDAY EVENING AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY WITH
NEARLY 1.9 INCHES. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND LEVELS WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ THRU
21Z...PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS. LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW MAINLY EAST...SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...WILL SLACK OFF LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONITE TO
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED UNDER 6 FEET IN ALL WATERS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE UNTIL SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT IN THE
CARIBBEAN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 30 20
STT 77 87 79 89 / 20 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST SUN JUN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE AREA MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
SOME AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT INDICATED AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THESE WEAK UPPER
PERTURBATIONS. FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN PR. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08/18Z-08/21Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY ESE AT
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 20 30 20 20
STT 88 78 88 79 / 10 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST SUN JUN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...THE NOSE OF A HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEN GRADUALLY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD OVER HISPANIOLA...APPEARING AND THEN
DISAPPEARING SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MID LEVELS
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEXT SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK BUT A SECOND AND WEAKER HIGH IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE
TRADE WIND FLOWS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND SUPPRESSED MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WERE REGISTERED IN THE EASTERN QUARTER OF
PUERTO RICO AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A BAND OF MOISTURE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO AS OF 08/19Z
AND HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO APPEAR. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL GET A LATE START IN THE AREA TODAY...BUT
THAT WE WILL STILL GET SOME MORE RAIN BEFORE THE BAND MOVES AWAY
LATER TONIGHT...THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.

THE GFS HAS POSTPONED THE NEXT MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE UNTIL AFTER
MONDAY AND SO HAVE BACKED OFF SOME OF THE PREVIOUSLY HIGHER POPS
IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST FOR MONDAY. MOISTURE ON TUESDAY IS ALSO
LESS. BUT MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS DRYING TREND WILL
ALSO RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. THIS ALSO SQUARES WITH THE
RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AND SUPPLY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH SOME BRIEF VCSH AND ISOLD -SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EVE...THEN TAPERING OFF TO LESS THAN 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND
SHOULD DROP BELOW 6 FEET SOON. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED IN OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIPPED CLOSE TO CRITICAL
LEVELS NEAR CAMP SANTIAGO THIS AFTERNOON REACHING A MINIMUM OF 48 PERCENT.
WINDS REACHED 17 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS AREA IS...FOR THE
PRESENT...THE MOST VULNERABLE TO...EASY IGNITION. CONDITIONS WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE TOMORROW. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PUERTO RICO`S SOUTH COAST...BUT ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 88 / 30 30 40 40
STT 78 88 79 89 / 30 10 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today but for the most part good weather will prevail.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST MON JUN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING. STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DOMINANT TUESDAY AND
INTO MIDWEEK...FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY...WITH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE DRIEST DAYS. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.4 INCHES BOTH DAYS. BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEREFORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ACROSS W-NW PR IN THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH VCTS/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THAT PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY E TO ESE AT 5 TO 10 KTS TIL
09/13Z...THEN 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL 09/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY CAUSING SOME AREAS TO BE
UNDER AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEK...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING. AS WINDS STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AND FUELS
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT EVERY DAY...RED FLAG DAYS LIKELY ON THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAIN...MONA AND VIEQUES ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 79 / 20 30 40 10
STT 88 79 88 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST MON JUN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTH ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE
MONA CHANNEL.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES DURING
THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL FADE AND REGENERATE SEVERAL TIMES WHILE
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY EXCEPT A BRIEF
EPISODE ON SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST ECHOS ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SO
FAR WERE FROM THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE FIRE IN SALINAS. THAT PLUME
STREAMED OFF TOWARD COAMO. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THOSE THAT FIRED OFF YESTERDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH
COAST...IT HAS ALREADY REACHED 92 DEGREES AT THE LMM AIRPORT...AND
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE EAST COAST.
THE NAM5 HAS GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST IT IS TOO WET.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO EAST DURING THE WEEK
AND LATE THIS WEEK EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO COME DOWN TO WITHIN
ONE OR TWO DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE GFS SHOWS THE NEXT MAJOR SPIKE
OF MOISTURE TO BE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY AT AROUND 32-33
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE THAT WILL PASS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UNTIL THEN CONDITIONS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS W-NW PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME VCSH...VCTS AT TJBQ AND
TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY E TO ESE AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...THEN UP TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT 5
TO 10 DAYS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 50 PERCENT
SO FAR TODAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO WITH WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS. CABO
ROJO HAS HAD WINDS UP TO 19 MPH BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE
REMAINED ABOVE 60 PERCENT. A GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 79 89 / 20 20 10 10
STT 79 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE JUN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST. STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOW 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FLOW.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY. SHOWERS...IF ANY...WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY INDUCED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DOMINANT...FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY...WITH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE DRIEST DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.5 INCHES BOTH DAYS. IN TERMS OF TMAX...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH PROMOTES AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
LATEST NAAPS GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT HAZINESS OVER THE AREA WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT BRINGING
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT LATEST TIMING OF THE WAVE AND RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIG PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
APPEARS MORE LIKE SUN. AFTER WAVE PASSAGE SAT NIGHT-SUN...SAHARAN
AIR WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE E TO ESE AT
5 TO 10 KTS UNTIL 10/13Z...INCREASING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SAHARAN
DUST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CAUSING
HAZE...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT REST OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIG CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED. SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT WITH UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ALL WEEK IN THE
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND VIEQUES WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY
FUELS. THE PROBABILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 0 10 10 20
STT 87 80 87 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST TUE JUN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY
FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WAS DETECTED AS A GENERAL FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTED OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE FILLING
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD...WITH SOME VCSH AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY E TO ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING TO 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT REST OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIG CHANGES IN
WIND SPEED. SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT WITH UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ALL WEEK IN THE
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND VIEQUES WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY
FUELS. THE PROBABILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 79 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 89 78 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
925 PM AST TUE JUN 10 2014

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.STRONG WINDS...VERY DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WITH RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRES.

PRZ014-025-110930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0008.140611T1400Z-140611T2000Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-VIEQUES-
925 PM AST TUE JUN 10 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AST WEDNESDAY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 014 AND
025...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM AST WEDNESDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 014 AND 025.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: EAST SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): 725 AT CAMP SANTIAGO...625 AT
CABO ROJO AND GUANICA AND 525 AT VIEQUES.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT CABO ROJO...GUANICA
AND VIEQUES AND NEAR 7 PERCENT AT CAMP SANTIAGO.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: NEAR 40 PERCENT AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
NEAR 50 PERCENT AT CABO ROJO...GUANICA AND VIEQUES.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LIKELY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SOME SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
BE PRESENT TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DUST EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE USVI. THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TODAY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT
1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOME SAHARAN DUST IS PRESENT AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EVEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DIPPING DOWN TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THOSE DAYS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
STRONG INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE 850MB THETA-E WILL
BE AT A MINIMUM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SO RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...NAAPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT SAHARAN DUST MAY ONCE AGAIN INVADE THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
TODAY. SAHARAN DUST MAY CAUSE HAZE BUT VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN P6SM. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS UP TO 19
KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAINLY WILL BE
AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET AND UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY
FALL SHORT OF THE ESTABLISHED CRITERIA TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS AND STRONG WINDS WERE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TO
BE ISSUED. THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT AT ALL THREE RAWS
STATIONS IS AT THE 97TH PERCENTILE AND WINDS WILL BE AT 20 MPH
CREATING VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS. 00Z JSJ RAOB INDICATED
0-1KM AVG WINDS OF 18KTS ALMOST 5-KT HIGHER THAN SUGGESTED BY GFS.
THE FIRE DANGER WAS IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY YESTERDAY AT CAMP
SANTIAGO AND CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 0 10 10 20
STT 88 78 89 79 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LIKELY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED AS A GENERAL FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTED OVER
THE REGION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
COMBINE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAINLY WILL BE
AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET AND UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND STRONG WINDS
WERE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.
TO BE ISSUED. THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 87 78 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 78 89 78 89 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST THU JUN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A MODERATE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TROPICAL WAVE STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED STARTING LATE
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT OVER THE AREA AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EVEN DRIER
AIR IS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DIPPING BELOW 1.3 INCHES TODAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN USVI THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED.

DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...BRINGING AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE USVI REMAIN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK IN ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT
AS DRY AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS. HOWEVER NAAPS MODEL INDICATES A
DECENT CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA
STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY
WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT
12/17Z. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SAHARAN DUST STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN P6SM.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS UP TO 18
KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...SEAS MAINLY WILL BE
AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER TODAY THAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 0 0 10 20
STT 88 77 89 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST THU JUN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED AS A GENERAL
AND VERY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTED OVER THE REGION. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE AROUND 55 WEST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH FEW SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 12/21Z. WIND
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OVERALL DRYING TREND ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS
OF PUERTO RICO ALONG WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES AND MODERATE TO
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND
SALINAS AND JUANA DIAZ...WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL INFO OR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 78 88 / 0 10 20 20
STT 77 88 78 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. TUTT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNE OF PR MID NEXT WEEK AND
MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OVER MID LEVEL RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AROUND MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY.

SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE-RIDGE
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG
57W. WILL LIKELY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SAT FOR SOUTH COAST
AND VIEQUES LATER THIS MORNING.

WAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVR NW PR SUN AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IS
SHALLOW MAINLY CONFINED BELOW 700 MB AND WILL BE FAST MOVING WAVE.

SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AND MON
SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIP. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVR
THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WHILE A TUTT DEEPENS OVR THE CNTRL ATLC. THIS
WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENT PATTERN LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THUS MAINTAINING DRY WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THRU
13/17Z WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVER
WRN PR AND AROUND TJMZ AFT 13/17Z. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH SAT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT SUN
AND MON WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. SEAS 3-5 FT ATLC WATERS XCPT 4-6 FT CARIBBEAN WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WX CONDITIONS TODAY
BUT THINGS DETERIORATE ON SAT AS MINIMA IN PWAT SETTLES OVR THE
AREA. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RH`S SUN BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE AXIS.
THINGS DETERIORATE AGAIN MON WITH SAL. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL PREVAIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DRY WX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 10 0 0 30
STT 88 79 88 79 / 10 0 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING WEST UNDER AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO...MEANWHILE...THE
REST OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVED PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 60W LONGITUDE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS...ACCOMPANY
BY SAHARAN DUST...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND PROBABLY LASTING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL
MODEL INDICATED THIS AREA OF SAL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AFFECTING MOST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...WINDS SHIFTS MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST..AND BRINGS WITH IT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH FEW SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ
UNTIL 13/21Z. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH SAT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. SEAS 3-5 FT ATLANTIC WATERS EXCEPT 4-6 FT CARIBBEAN WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND
STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 014 AND 025 A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR TYPICALLY 24 TO 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. LISTEN FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 0 0 30 30
STT 79 88 79 88 / 0 20 30 30