Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST SAT JUN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
MID NEXT WEEK NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. HOWEVER...A SLOT OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING
TH AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEXT FEW DAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. EAST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL FM SFC TO FL150.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...COMBINE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL PROMOTE FIRE
DANGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.
THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 88 80 / 10 30 30 30
STT 90 79 90 81 / 10 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
731 AM AST SAT JUN 28 2014

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARMING...CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRE. FIRE MANAGERS
AND FIREFIGHTERS ARE HIGHLY ENCOURAGED TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

PRZ014-282200-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.FW.A.0009.140628T1600Z-140628T2200Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0010.140628T1600Z-140628T2200Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-
731 AM AST SAT JUN 28 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA PASSAGE...FIRE ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* 20-FOOT WINDS: 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST TO 30 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): GREATER THAN 600.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE:LESS THAN 10% AT CABO ROJO AND GUANICA.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: MID 30S IN CAMP SANTIAGO AND 40 TO
45 PERCENT AT CABO ROJO AND GUANICA.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH RESPECT
TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES. AVOID ANY
EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR BRUSH. DO NOT
TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO
THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

ER/RAM/EM

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVER LAND AREAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED.

FOR TUESDAY...A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGE INDICATED PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 2.0 INCHES
TUESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS DURING MAX HEATING...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA LATE THIS
WEEK....WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF SHRA MAY DEVELOP NEAR TJMZ
BETWEEN 29/18Z-21Z. EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL FM SFC TO
20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH COASTAL
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 87 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE EAST PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL TRAIL IT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A NEW CUT-OFF LOW
WILL FORM NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE ON TUESDAY. THEN TROPICAL WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. EXCEPT FOR
TROPICAL WAVES LOWER LEVELS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND DUSTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER NOON IN WEST CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO AND SPREAD NORTHWEST OVER SAN SEBASTIAN AND AGUADA. TOPS
REACHED 52 KFT BRIEFLY...BUT ONLY ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS
INDICATED. SHOWERS...BEING GENERATED BY INTENSE HEATING...WILL
DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET MOST SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATER AND ONLY A FEW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
IN THE EAST FLOW. MOISTURE IMPROVES OVERNIGHT AND SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WEAK TROUGH
AT 700 MB WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
WILL ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE MONDAY. THEN ON TUESDAY
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
INCREASED DUST LEVELS AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
NOT BE VERY HIGH ANYWHERE...BUT A LITTLE MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND IT BECOMES EVEN DRIER ON THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN
DROP TO A MINIMUM AND STABILITY WILL INCREASE. NEVERTHELESS SOME
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE EARLY MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MUCH BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FINAL TROPICAL WAVE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PD. AT LEAST TIL 29/22Z...BRIEF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP VCNTY
TJMZ AND JUST S OF TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE E 10-20 KT UP TO FL
200. SCT-BKN CLD LYR BTW FL250-FL300 ACROSS THE REGION WITH FEW
-SHRA/SHRA OVR WATER EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. NO
SIG VERTICAL DVLPMNT EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR THOSE WITH AFTN TSRA IN
VCTY OF TJMZ DURG THE REST OF THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
SEAS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WEEK BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 FEET
BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS
WERE ALREADY 6 FEET AT ONLY ONE BUOY: 42060.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 80 89 / 20 20 30 30
STT 79 89 80 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON JUN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
EAST AS DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PEAK
LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE AFTER NOON AS THE WAVE APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOW THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATE A MAXIMUM OF
2.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACCOMPANIED THIS WAVE. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS AFTER NOON TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST A DRIER/DUSTY AIR MASS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY. LOW MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANY SHOWER
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INCOMING MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES.
SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN PR WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH 30/18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER TNCM AND TKPK IN SHRA/TSRA AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA BETWEEN 30/18Z-30/22Z. CLOUDINESS
WITH SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER TIST AND TISX TONIGHT AS TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 13-19 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 6 FEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION. IN GENERAL...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 50 50 20
STT 88 79 90 81 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST MON JUN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREAL WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BACK-EDGE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOW THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITIONS...REMNANTS OF A SAHARAN
AIR MASS IS ACCOMPANYING AND TRAILING THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AS A
RESULT HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A DRIER/DUSTY AIR MASS
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY. SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN
PR WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 01/01Z INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL M0VE ACROSS THE LOCAL EASTERN WATERS GENERATING
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TJSJ...TJPS...TISX AND TIST
SITES. EAST WINDS OF 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL FM SFC TO 20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL GENERATE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 89 / 50 50 20 20
STT 79 90 81 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST TUE JUL 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING A
FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMA ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
EASTERN HISPANOLA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...DRIER/DUSTY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL
SUGGESTS DECENT CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT HAZY
SKIES AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN PR WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ
AND TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA BETWEEN 01/18Z-22Z.LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15 KT STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. SEAS 3-5 FT INCREASING 4-6 FT DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 80 89 79 / 20 20 20 30
STT 81 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

June of 2014 was the third ever as driest.

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2014 WILL END AS THE THIRD DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD
AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT WITH 0.77 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JUNE
ON RECORD WAS IN 2012 WHEN ONLY 0.16 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. JUNE
2014 WILL ALSO END AS THE THIRD WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH AN AVG
TEMP OF 85.1F DEGS. THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS ALSO IN 2012
WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 85.7F DEGS. THIS IS ALSO THE SECOND WARMEST
FIRST HALF OF A YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.4F. THE WARMEST
FIRST HALF OF A YEAR WAS IN 1983 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.8F DEGS.

AT CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST. THOMAS...JUNE 2014 WILL END AS THE SECOND
DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 0.08 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD WAS IN 2007 WHEN ONLY 0.07 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

AT CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX....JUNE 2014 WILL END AS THE FOURTH
DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 0.47 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD WAS IN 2001 WHEN ONLY 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

[Gustywind]

June of 2014 was the third ever as driest.

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2014 WILL END AS THE THIRD DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD
AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT WITH 0.77 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JUNE
ON RECORD WAS IN 2012 WHEN ONLY 0.16 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. JUNE
2014 WILL ALSO END AS THE THIRD WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH AN AVG
TEMP OF 85.1F DEGS. THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS ALSO IN 2012
WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 85.7F DEGS. THIS IS ALSO THE SECOND WARMEST
FIRST HALF OF A YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.4F. THE WARMEST
FIRST HALF OF A YEAR WAS IN 1983 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.8F DEGS.

AT CHARLOTTE AMALIE ST. THOMAS...JUNE 2014 WILL END AS THE SECOND
DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 0.08 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD WAS IN 2007 WHEN ONLY 0.07 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

AT CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX....JUNE 2014 WILL END AS THE FOURTH
DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 0.47 INCHES OF RAIN. THE DRIEST JUNE ON
RECORD WAS IN 2001 WHEN ONLY 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

Very interresting report Cycloneye . Thanks for posting that!

[Caribwxgirl]

Hello my Caribbean weather friends. I hope this year will not be too exciting with too many storms and near misses for the land massses. But hopefully there will be lots of beautiful storms to track away from land and all the way out to sea. I am not in Jamaica anymore at the moment so I will be enjoying the excitement from a far for at least the next two seasons.

Hope all is well in your neck of the woods.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED JUL 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS PASSING MAINLY OFFSHORE HAVE LITTLE OR NO
ASSOCIATED RAIN. SAHARAN DUST/HAZE REMAINS IN AREA AS WELL BUT
WILL MOVE WEST TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW ABOVE 500 MB NEAR 20N/60W HAS A TRAILING TROUGH
EXTENDING OVER CARIBBEAN WHILE THE LOW WILL MIGRATE WSW AND OVER
PR/USVI TODAY. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY OVER WEST PR BUT
FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON TUE AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE BELOW
1.5 INCHES. A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING ON THU FROM WSW WILL
HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...ALL TAF SITES TO BE VFR TODAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GIVE FALSE CEILINGS AT TIMES AT TIST/TISX UNTIL THIS
AIR MASS MOVES ON TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEA UP TO 21 KNOTS/6 FT TO CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES TO PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER. CONSIDERED POSSIBILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS SUFFICIENT
WINDS WILL RETURN AND FUELS TO CONTINUE DRY...HOWEVER 10 HOUR
MOISTURE REMAIN ON HIGH SIDE OF 8 PCT TODAY THEN WILL SEE ABOUT
ANY SHOWERS ON THU. MARINE AIR SHOULD ALSO KEEP DEW POINTS AT LOW
LEVELS ABOVE 70F AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND FUEL MOISTURE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CRITICAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 79 / 0 30 30 30
STT 89 80 90 79 / 0 20 20 30

[Gustywind]

Hello my Caribbean weather friends. I hope this year will not be too exciting with too many storms and near misses for the land massses. But hopefully there will be lots of beautiful storms to track away from land and all the way out to sea. I am not in Jamaica anymore at the moment so I will be enjoying the excitement from a far for at least the next two seasons.

Hope all is well in your neck of the woods.

Thanks, you're right. Keeping our fingers crossed and monitoring carefully this season as usual.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO CAUSING THE LOW TO
REFORM IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND MOVE TO THE WEST LATER THIS WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH CROSSED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
MOVING WEST. A SECOND ONE NEAR 39 WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONGER EAST WINDS ON
SATURDAY. FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THEN ALLOWS WEAK TO MODEST
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE TENTATIVELY SET TO PASS
THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH TOPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 48 KFT
SPROUTED OVER MARICAO AND PENUELAS AND OTHER AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
AND WEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER AREAS
REMAINED DRY AS A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINED IN CONTROL OF
THE AREA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY COULD NOT BE CONFIRMED ALTHOUGH
SUPPORTED BY CLOUD TOP HEIGHTS. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. LIMITED CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN SUCCESSFUL
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ON SATURDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO COME BACK AFTER 04 JULY AND MAY BE HEAVIER THAN TODAY
WHEN IT DOES. MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE ON SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVELS. THIS AND THE 30 KNOTS OF WIND
FORECAST BY THE GFS AT 10 KFT SHOULD ALSO KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN DESIRED. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE IN MUCH THE SAME WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST WINDS OF 5-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL FM SFC TO 20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 91 81 92 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 89 80 90 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST THU JUL 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE TODAY. SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ARE OVER OPEN WATERS AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH ARRIVES AT USVI ABOUT NOON SO BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY BE DURING MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE SMALL WHILE
MOVING QUICKLY (25-30 KT) AND WILL NOT YIELD MUCH RAINFALL.

A SIMILAR WAVE CURRENTLY ABOUT 45W IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON SAT.
CONTAINING ONLY A MODERATE LEVEL OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IT WILL
ALSO IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL IN QUANTITIES MORE
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF SEASON.

DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRI BUT ESPECIALLY MON/TUE AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SAHARAN AIR/DUST IS MODELED TO REACH THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA OVER THE
AREA WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 03/17Z...CAUSING INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS OVER PR AND LIKELY VCSH/VCTS FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ. SFC
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL 03/13Z...INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS
THEREAFTER FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON CARIBBEAN AND JUST OFFSHORE OF
NORTHWEST PR COAST WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LONG FETCH SWELLS OF 6-7
FEET ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BE MUTED AT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WILL NOT TRANSLATE WELL TO PR/USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 92 79 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 79 90 80 / 20 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU JUL 3 2014


.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER WATERS EAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
GENERATING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN .5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN AND WIND GUST OF
NEAR 40 MPH WERE REPORTED WITH THIS SHOWERS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
DISSIPATED OR MOVED WEST OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. PASSING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ABOUT 47W IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR
LOCAL REGION ON SATURDAY. CONTAINING ONLY A MODERATE LEVEL OF
PRECIPITATELY WATER IT WILL ALSO IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL IN QUANTITIES MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL
03/22Z...CAUSING VCSH/VCTS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
FEW PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10-20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON CARIBBEAN AND JUST OFFSHORE OF
NORTHWEST PR COAST WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 92 79 90 / 30 30 30 40
STT 79 90 80 89 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST FRI JUL 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ON ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL
END LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION HAD ALREADY EXCEEDED 16C ON 00Z MACM SOUNDING AND
EXPECT TO SEE CLOSE TO THAT AT TJSJ THIS MORNING. SO DRYING TO BE
ONGOING THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDER OVER WESTERN PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 53W...TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL WEAKEN THE WAVE BEFORE ARRIVAL BUT THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITABLE NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN
HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. THE WEAKENING WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY LESS
WIND ALOFT THAN OCCURRED WITH THE PREVIOUS WAVE ON THU AND WILL
HAVE LESS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN SHOWERS APPEARS LESS...BUT SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE
NOTICABLE. NO THUNDER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REQUIRE AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER WESTERN PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS EXPECTED FOR TJMZ AFTER 04/17Z AS
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL 04/13Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO 10-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 04/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY OR INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LONG FETCH SWELLS
ACROSS TROPICAL ATLANTIC REMAIN MUTED BY LEEWARDS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...400-200 MB RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE TODAY
WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR APPROACHES FROM EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
FALL TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES IN AFTERNOON WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 4 KFT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 ON SOUTHERN PR COAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX SOME OF
THE VERY DRY AIR (17C-19C TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD ACCORDING
TO GFS MODEL SOUNDING) TOWARDS SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LESS WIND THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE DRYING OF FUELS AND AID MIXING. THESE FACTORS IN ADDITION
TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THERE SUGGEST RED FLAG WARNING THOUGH
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 10 30 40 30
STT 89 79 89 80 / 10 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST FRI JUL 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OVER CUBA AND BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57 WEST THIS AFTERNOON MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILED
TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMERS FROM SAINT CROIX AND ST
THOMAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58 WEST MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. THE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT...AND SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SHOWS SOME
SQUALLY WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY A GENERALLY DRY...HAZY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL AGAIN ENCOMPASS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ARND 05/09Z...IN USVI ARND 05/16Z AND EXIT PUERTO RICO 05/23Z.
SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRAIL THE WAVE SO SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
CONT AFT WAVE AXIS PSG. INTMT PDS OF MVFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SHRA AND ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL ACCMPY WAVE. MTN OBSCURATIONS TO BEGIN IN
PR AS EARLY AS 05/14Z. WINDS AT SFC EAST 10 TO 20 KTS INCRG TO 20
TO 30 KT FROM 2 TO 18 KFT. ABV THIS LEVEL WINDS VEER AND INCREASE.
WINDS BCM SW ARND 25 KT FROM 40 TO 45 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LONG FETCH SWELLS ACROSS TROPICAL ATLANTIC REMAIN MUTED
BY LEEWARDS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 10 70 50 40
STT 79 89 79 90 / 10 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave moving thru PR/VI today bringing scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SAT JUL 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CAUSING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR TODAY IS CAUSING WIND
GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH WITH THE SHOWERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE ITSELF IS
MOVING AT ABOUT 28 MPH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
MEAN 0-6KM AVERAGE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST FOR TODAY AT ABOUT
25 MPH. IN ADDITION...LATEST GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THETA-E WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AN INDICATION OF INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE
AT THIS TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...LIKELY WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...I DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
THE INHERITED FORECAST.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK FAIRLY DRY COMPARED TO THIS
WEEKEND. THETA-E DECREASES QUITE A BIT AND SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN.
HAZY SKIES ARE TO BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY...KEEPING AN EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...INCR SHRA THIS MRNG WI TROPICAL WV AND POSBL WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 KT. GENERALLY VFR TODAY XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA BCMG NMRS IN
AFT FOR INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR ALG WI OBSCD MTNS AND FEW TSRA. WIND
E 15-30 KT SFC-FL200 BCMG ESE 12-25 KT TONITE/SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 3-6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 50 50 50 10
STT 89 79 89 80 / 50 50 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT JUL 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. DENSE SAHARAN AIR WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTED
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND ALSO DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS NEAR 55KFT WERE OBSERVED OVER
MARICAO...HORMIGUEROS AND MAYAGUEZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR MONDAY...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AND NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SHOWS A
DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WAS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ARRIVE TO THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THEREFOERE...DRY...HOT AND HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAINS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 06/00Z AND AT TJMZ
UNTIL 05/22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST AT 10 TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
25K FEET. ABOVE THIS LEVEL WIND BECOMES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 3-6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 89 / 50 50 10 10
STT 79 89 80 89 / 50 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL KEEP LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...SLOWLY DRYING UP FROM THE
EAST STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE WITH ITS LINGERING MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE AREA TO THE EAST OF ITS AXIS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE
IS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FAIRLY DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE EARLY ON MONDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DROP QUITE A BIT
WITH IT AS SEEN BY THE GFS MODEL WHICH INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL DECREASE FROM 1.9 INCHES TODAY TO ABOUT 1.4 OR A LITTLE
LESS BY MONDAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
CAP AT ABOUT 850MB. ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE BIG RAIN PRODUCERS EITHER AS THE MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY LIMITED.

THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS INDICATE THAT THE CAP DISAPPEARS BY WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY...SAME FOR THURSDAY...AND ON FRIDAY...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BUT KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG. SHRA/TSRA GRDLY
DECR E-W THRU MRNG THEN SCT/NMRS MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA NW QUARTER PR
IN AFT ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. VFR WI ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE IN AFT. WIND
SFC-FL200 ESE 14-25 KT BCMG E 12-20 MON.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE MAINLY
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 79 / 50 10 10 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 50 10 10 10