STORM2K

I agree I don’t see where our Sunday rain event is coming from. I see a front approaching North Florida and a area off the East coast of the Yucatan. The models show the low forming in the Western Gulf coming out of Mexico, so where is the origin point?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

If you loop the WPC precip estimates you'll notice that south Florida's heavy rain is from multiple systems.. all targeting the southern part of the state. As of now it looks like the keys and extreme south florida gets the biggest prize with a rapid tapering north of there. If it happens...this is just what is needed to end their drought with a bang.

Nowwww I see the players in the line-up. Batting first....the old frontal boundary draped over Cuba.

Welp, it looks like we won’t be receiving our 6-8 inches of rain from this event tomorrow. We’ll be lucky to get an inch of rain!

Even more brutal is the fact that the other rain events are on the verge of missing the entire state as well. a small additional shift south and east will whiff everyone. One way or another though...the rainy season is on the way. the calendar eventually wins the battle. As it stands now the keys and the east coast up to Palm Beach county are still expected to get significant rain..but they're riding the line...one more shift east and south and it's curtains. stay tuned as they say

TheStormExpert wrote:Welp, it looks like we won’t be receiving our 6-8 inches of rain from this event tomorrow. We’ll be lucky to get an inch of rain!

https://i.ibb.co/tCb6fXk/28-FA275-F-0-B41-431-D-919-D-3-DAB41463-B24.gif

Yeah, I hope I'm wrong but I'm getting the sense this may be a Keys-only thing, maybe some Homestead and FL City.

I think we will will get occasional sprinkles that is it from this event, and the drought continues.

Patrick99 wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:Welp, it looks like we won’t be receiving our 6-8 inches of rain from this event tomorrow. We’ll be lucky to get an inch of rain!

https://i.ibb.co/tCb6fXk/28-FA275-F-0-B41-431-D-919-D-3-DAB41463-B24.gif

Yeah, I hope I'm wrong but I'm getting the sense this may be a Keys-only thing, maybe some Homestead and FL City.

This afternoon’s NWS: Miami forecast discussion made it sound like it’ll primarily be a southern tip of the Florida peninsula and Keys rain event.

But like psyclone said the official South Florida rainy season is about to start any day now as it usually does mid-May.

18z GFS gives south of the Big O a decent drink along with E coastal up through Daytona. No complaints here if that verifies.

Since 1 May 2020, most of South Florida, in terms of rainfall, has seen an average net increase of two or more mm/day, or ~0.08”. However, the entire region still faces an average deficit of -2.5 mm/day (~0.1”). Beyond Tuesday, low-level ridging and associated easterlies look to become increasingly dominant over time. Any additional rainfall would likely result from an inverted surface trough rather than any mid- to upper-level synoptic disturbance. Overall, mid- to late-May looks to be fairly dry on balance, but not extraordinarily so. Only a possible tropical or subtropical cyclone could finally initiate the rainy season around 20 May or so, given that the low-amplitude MJO is likely to progress over the western Atlantic basin by then. There are some hints on the ECMWF that a system could develop over or near the eastern Bahamas around that time, thereby enhancing westerly flow over South Florida.

After a very warm March and most of April I am glad spring showed up to central and northern FL the last few days, better late than never before the summer season sets in for the next 5 months.

I think this is a bust. We're getting rain - better than nothing - but it hasn't been much more than a firm drizzle at times.

Patrick99 wrote:I think this is a bust. We're getting rain - better than nothing - but it hasn't been much more than a firm drizzle at times.

Agreed nothing more than that really, thought we would end up with more soaking rains than this.

gatorcane wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:I think this is a bust. We're getting rain - better than nothing - but it hasn't been much more than a firm drizzle at times.

Agreed nothing more than that really, thought we would end up with more soaking rains than this.

I said yesterday that we would just get a drizzle and I was right.The rain is good but it won’t help with the drought we are in. We have another shot at rain on Thursday but that will be like this probably a light rain or drizzle.

According to NWS, next chance of rain looks possible towards end of this week as a trough moves west with the easterlies. But I can see the writing on the wall. Models are hinting that now it spins up into a subtropical storm near the Bahamas. I can see this happening and turning north passing South Florida well to the east sucking up all of the moisture and putting us on the dry side.

Welp, it looks like this rain event is just about done for South Florida, still could see some showers moving in from the NE off the Atlantic but so far in the last 24hrs. I picked up 0.59 inches of rain. Better than nothing but a far cry from the 6-8 inches they’re predicting several days ago.

Like gatorcane said our next best chances of rain come later this week starting Thursday and lasting through early next week.

TheStormExpert wrote:Welp, it looks like this rain event is just about done for South Florida, still could see some showers moving in from the NE off the Atlantic but so far in the last 24hrs. I picked up 0.59 inches of rain. Better than nothing but a far cry from the 6-8 inches they’re predicting several days ago.

Like gatorcane said our next best chances of rain come later this week starting Thursday and lasting through early next week.

I hope your right about the next shot at rain, the only thing that might occur is if this develops in the Bahamas we will be on the dry side of it making it worse for us as far as rain goes. The system will most likely move OTS.

Maybe I am exaggerating, but I swear that outside of named storms like Irene and Katrina, as well as a couple other depressions and TS's over the years, we haven't had a real big "rain event" since the 1980s. Especially lately, I feel like forecasts of widespread heavy rain with systems like this tend to come up bust.

I do remember as a kid that seemingly every year, at least once, we'd get this day or 2 of crazy heavy rain, with yards turning into puddles, trash piles out front becoming mini-lakes and flooding into the streets. It was usually sometime in between May-September, but I swear I remember it happening around April and Easter a couple times. I remember these well, because on these days, it rained *so hard* that the earthworms would come out in droves and be all over the sidewalks. I would collect some and use them to go fishing when the rain stopped. There'd be way more out on the sidewalks than I could ever use. I haven't seen that in decades. It either doesn't rain like that here anymore, or there aren't as many earthworms under foot.

They have the rain chance at 60% for Thursday and Friday and I’m sure that will bust and be replaced with a 20% chance since we are on the dry side of whatever forms in the Bahamas

boca wrote:They have the rain chance at 60% for Thursday and Friday and I’m sure that will bust and be replaced with a 20% chance since we are on the dry side of whatever forms in the Bahamas

Whatever comes of that isn’t until this weekend. I believe this Thursday and especially Friday will feature the best rain chances for South Florida.