MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY/TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191950Z - 192145Z
   
   CORRECTED SERN AR TO NERN AR IN 3RD PARAGRAPH
   
   SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
   MO/AR/IL/KY AND TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
   ADVECTION ACROSS MO IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM INITIATION IN VERY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
   THAT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING WITHIN CAPPED WARM SECTOR
   WAS LIKELY FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL TO WRN KY ATTM. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN
   INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND SOME HAIL THREAT...ON THE COOL
   SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...A GREATER CONCERN EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR WHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SRN MO/NERN AR SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY
   REDUCED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD 90F THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY APPROACH OF
   LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   ACROSS WRN IA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE FRONTAL
   WAVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW
   LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE RELATIVELY
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LFC/CLOUD BASE...STRONG TURNING
   OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER...AND ROUGHLY
   40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND
   SHOULD DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW TRACKS
   SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE AREA
   WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   36269237 36819279 37539312 38469280 38749237 38839163
   38389018 38028886 37698785 36708699 36068698 35888757
   35678963 35829125

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 191956Z - 192200Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE INTO
   EASTERN WA/WESTERN ID. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   COAST CENTERED ALONG 135 W. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS ARE
   ONGOING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AMIDST AN INCREASING BELT OF
   SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 12Z/18Z OBSERVED BOISE RAOBS CAPTURE
   RATHER MOIST NATURE OF AIRMASS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
   PRECIP WATER VALUES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
   
   INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSOLATION AND A
   WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LIKELY FROM THE ORE
   CASCADES E/NE INTO EASTERN WA AND WESTERN ID. A RECENT INCREASE IS
   ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ORE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS
   ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ORE CASCADES NORTH OF REDMOND ORE.
   
   MODIFIED 18Z BOISE RAOB IN CONJUNCTION WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGESTS MODERATELY INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE OR GREATER WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST ORE INTO ID. THIS DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
   UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...
   
   45772128 47401769 47471578 45981415 44031414 42911518
   42291868 42322144 44102217

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0603 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO
   ID/FAR WESTERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364...
   
   VALID 192303Z - 200100Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO NORTHWEST ID. LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS WW 364...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN MT AND SOUTHERN
   ID.
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH
   CENTRAL ORE ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF
   NORTHWEST/CENTRAL ID. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF SEVERAL
   SEVERE REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN ORE...WHILE EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT /40 KNOTS OR GREATER 0-6 KM/. AIDED BY LOW LEVEL
   EASTERLY FLOW IN THE COLUMBIA VALLEY...ROTATING STORM CURRENTLY
   ACROSS NORTHERN MORROW COUNTY ORE AT 23Z APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE
   HERMISTON AREA BY 00Z...AND PERHAPS THE RICHLAND/PASCO/KENNEWICK WA
   AREAS THEREAFTER. PER 18Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM BOISE...A RATHER
   WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY -- 1500 J/KG MUCAPE OR
   GREATER -- WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   OUTSIDE OF WW 364...A RELATIVELY MORE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
   ALSO EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO FAR WESTERN MT AND
   SOUTHERN ID. RATHER HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST STORM MOTIONS
   WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   44352084 47012040 48241460 45971446 42261337

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/NERN WY/FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192305Z - 200030Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN
   MT/NERN WY AND POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB.  STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS...WITH OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT PRECLUDING ISSUANCE
   OF A WW.
   
   SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN MT IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID
   LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
   SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO ERN WY
   TO WRN NEB WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S
   EXTENDING FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS
   OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN MT/WY.  EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...
   BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
   SEVERE STORMS. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH 30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE WEAK
   INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   44480677 45110791 45760794 46160625 45700393 45150325
   43490293 42400389 42680493

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN MO...SW IL...WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192332Z - 200100Z
   
   THE AREA ACROSS NRN MO WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE BY ABOUT 03Z TOWARD WRN KY/TN.  A
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH STILL COULD BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING INTO
   EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCAL PROFILER PLOTS SHOW A MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAX MOVING SSEWD FROM IA TOWARD NRN MO THIS EVENING.  A WEAK SURFACE
   LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SPEED
   MAX...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT ALIGNED ALONG THE MS RIVER.  THE WARM
   SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG/
   WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 57-61 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
   THE MID-UPPER 80S.  HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PERSISTS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
   
   THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NW MO
   SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED THIS AREA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE ACROSS MO THIS EVENING IS STILL IN QUESTION.  IF ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION CAN FORM...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
   OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE MORE PROBABLE
   SCENARIO IS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER
   WRN KY/TN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A
   STRENGTHENING /35-50 KT/ LLJ.  LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 05/19/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   38878990 36798752 36128807 36328901 38089143 38599407
   39249434 40159382 40749216 39709070

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ORE AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO
   ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364...
   
   VALID 200047Z - 200215Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364 CONTINUES UNTIL
   04Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   MOST VIGOROUS STORMS IN SEVERE WATCH 364 ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE
   RICHLAND/PASCO/KENNEWICK WA AREAS AS OF 0030Z. SMALL MCS WITH
   HISTORY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS -- INCLUDING A MEASURED 73 MPH GUST
   AT IRRIGON ORE...A 70 MPH GUST WEST OF HERMISTON ORE...AND A 61 MPH
   GUST AT PASCO/TRI-CITIES WA -- CONTINUES TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST WA INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF WALLA WALLA. GIVEN THE
   ORGANIZATION OF THIS CLUSTER AND DOWNSTREAM WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...A
   SEVERE THREAT FOR LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST WA AND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ELSEWHERE...A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS WW 364 AND
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF ID INTO FAR WESTERN MT. 00Z BOISE RAOB IS
   REPRESENTATIVE OF AROUND 900 J/KG MUCAPE IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE
   VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY WANE WITH LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING. THUS WW 364 MAY ULTIMATELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO
   THE SCHEDULED 04Z EXPIRATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
   
   47041399 46021435 44571380 43801377 42991484 43551747
   44301996 46551906 47591737 48261503

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN AND FAR WRN
   NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 200407Z - 200430Z
   
   WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KY INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN
   TN AND FAR WRN NC.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED RECENT INCREASE DURING LAST 30-40 MINUTES
   IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED TO THE ENE
   OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ESEWD INTO
   MIDDLE TN TO NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER.  40-55 KT WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING
   INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN IS RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AIDING IN
   CURRENT AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.  AVAILABLE MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND STRONG
   EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-60 KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
   
   35008578 36398739 37438683 37558519 36648366 36158272
   34958341

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...
   
   VALID 200757Z - 200900Z
   
   THROUGH 10Z...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
   WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SERN MO
   WITH ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THIS
   FEATURE THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO WRN NC. STRONG WAA N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WLY 40-45 KT LLJ...APPEARS TO BE THE
   PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM SUSTAINING ONGOING STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO WRN NC. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
   THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS
   ORIGINATING AROUND 850 MB.
   
   SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WRN OR NWRN
   FLANK OF TSTM COMPLEX OVER NRN MIDDLE TN WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENCE
   ZONE DEPICTED BY VWP PLAN VIEW FIELDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E.
   MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  THE STRONGEST
   STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
   MIDDLE INTO ERN TN WHERE LLJ WILL MAINTAIN GREATEST INFLUX OF
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...
   
   36218606 36498586 36518396 36178243 35698191 34988204
   34758265 35048488

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NERN AL...NRN GA...WRN NC/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201640Z - 201845Z
   
   PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY EAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA WAS INDICATING BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM TN SEWD ACROSS THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER OF WEAK TSTMS... POSSIBLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WAS SPREADING SEWD ON
   THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD EFFECTIVELY OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
   AND POSSIBLY FOSTER ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AND
   OVER THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE MORE ROBUST FORCING REMAINS MARGINAL
   ACROSS THE REGION...ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
   MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL BE
   TOPPED BY 40-50KT WNWLY FLOW. HEATED AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD
   SUSTAIN STORMS AND PROMOTE EVOLUTION INTO ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS
   WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   36188386 35768298 35378258 34968234 34538232 34118271
   33868331 33518436 33758492 34458642 34748706 34908724
   35438773 36148765 36288514

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201742Z - 201945Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHERN WY. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE
   HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ID/WESTERN MT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR
   ASCENT TIED TO THIS FEATURE...AUGMENTED BY AMPLE HEATING/LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE COMPONENT...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
   THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST MT INTO CENTRAL
   MT/NORTHERN WY.
   
   A VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND PW VALUES AROUND 180 PERCENT OF
   NORMAL PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AT GREAT FALLS MT/RIVERTON WY. AS
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY ERODES...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS IN
   ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IS SUPPORTIVE OF MUCAPE VALUES
   OF 1500-2000 J/KG OR GREATER. COUPLED WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL
   SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS STORMS
   SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   48211133 48420805 47400696 45370667 44610675 44070787
   44371054 44931213 46281262

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201904Z - 202030Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC THROUGH
   LATE AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR
   AREAS EAST OF WATCH 366.
   
   CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NWRN SC...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
   CLT...WOULD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST INTO
   WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THESE AREAS WAS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF
   EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS EARLIER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
   INTERSECTING FRONT ACROSS NWRN SC WHERE VIGOROUS STORMS HAVE
   PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL. STORM NEAR CLT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR
   THE FRONT/LEE TROUGH ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALL THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST GIVEN STRONG WLY MEAN LAYER
   FLOW. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
   LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
   COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND A MORE WIDESPREAD
   SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG LEE
   TROUGH/FRONT...OR WITHIN FRONTAL WAVE...POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   34098230 35548166 35648070 35197913 34567863 34017872
   33367953 32857989 33038042 33208086 33628148

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN AL...NRN GA...SRN NC...SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368...
   
   VALID 202038Z - 202215Z
   
   NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS ERN
   TN...NRN GA...NWRN SC AND SCNTRL NC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WATCHES 366 AND 368
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FUEL VIGOROUS
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
   INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
   SITUATED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SRN TN/NRN GA
   BORDER AREA...EWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC...AND THEN NEWD TO THE NC
   PIEDMONT. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF STORM SPLITS ACROSS
   THESE AREAS...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST WLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
   HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FAVORED THE PERSISTENCE OF
   RIGHT-MOVING STORMS.
   
   ONE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WAS NOW MOVING TOWARD NRN
   LUMPKIN COUNTY IN NERN GA. THIS CELL PRODUCED BASEBALL HAIL EARLIER
   OVER SERN TN. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
   WEATHER IN PARTS OF HALL COUNTY BEFORE 22Z/6PM EDT. ADDITIONAL
   STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THIS STORM MAY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WATCH
   366 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH...OR LOCAL
   EXTENSION OF WATCH 366...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...
   
   32677959 32118086 33808234 34288335 34608567 35908557
   36058448 35648175 34427822 33377823

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...
   
   VALID 202053Z - 202300Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MT
   AND NORTHERN WY. MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
   FAR SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL WY.
   
   THE STRONGEST STORMS IN/NEAR WW 367 ARE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY...WITH A
   RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED MCS ABOUT 70 MILES SE OF BILLINGS AS OF
   2045Z. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE
   IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT GIVEN THE APPARENT COLD
   POOL/MCS ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED IN THE BIGHORN BASIN OF NORTH CENTRAL WY NEAR
   GREYBULL/WORLAND. THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST MT...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY WESTERN MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
   UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS IN PRESENCE OF 35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT.
   
   SOUTH OF WW 367...MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
   FAR SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL WY. STORMS
   WILL LIKELY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP
   EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN WY PLAINS WHERE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   EXISTS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   45281173 46621215 47571134 47410893 45880465 43590432
   41210468 43430845 44251037

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WESTERN WY/SOUTHEAST ID/FAR NORTHERN
   UT/NORTHEAST NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202142Z - 202345Z
   
   AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST IN A
   CORRIDOR FROM FAR WESTERN WY/SOUTHEAST ID INTO FAR NORTHERN UT AND
   NORTHEAST NV INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   AS CU FIELD/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS
   AFTERNOON...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY FROM THE NORTHEAST GREAT BASIN OF NV INTO THE MOUNTAINS
   OF FAR WESTERN WY...ALL WITHIN A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST
   MID LEVEL FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES/AMPLE INSOLATION COUPLED WITH A
   RATHER MOIST AIRMASS/HIGH PRECIP WATER ENVIRONMENT PER 12Z OBSERVED
   RAOBS FROM ELKO/BOISE/RIVERTON/SALT LAKE CITY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOST
   UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OR GREATER. IT APPEARS AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE
   ROBUST STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER A WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD
   NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...
   
   43991102 44040986 43130962 41831158 40361528 41361585
   42041538 42761280

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TN/NRN AL/NRN GA/NC/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368...
   
   VALID 202245Z - 210015Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 366 AND 368.
   
   MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR
   SERN VA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC TO ALONG THE BORDER REGION OF SW
   NC/SC AND NC/GA.  THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED WNWWD AS A QUASI-
   STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE/WRN TN TO FAR NRN AR.  MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING ALONG/IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BAROCLINIC
   ZONE AND INTO SC COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS
   BEING THE FAVORED STORM TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH
   THE FAR ERN PARTS OF WW 366 /SOUTH CENTRAL NC/ AND ACROSS MUCH OF
   368...WHILE NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY OVER SRN MIDDLE TN IN
   THE WRN PART OF WW 366.  THIS NEW ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY
   INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD INTO MIDDLE TN
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE
   MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES MIDDLE TN...
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING
   SEWD INTO SERN TN/NRN GA.  LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
   
   WWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO WRN TN IS MORE CONDITIONAL..
   GIVEN THE CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE AND STRONGER
   INHIBITION LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ASCENT/STORM DEVELOPMENT.  IN
   ADDITION...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF WRN TN INTO
   AR MAY MINIMIZE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   
   AIR MASS ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL/ERN NC IS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST N OF WW 368 WITH RIGHT-MOVING
   STORMS TENDING TO TRACK SEWD ALONG/NEAR THE NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 368.
   THUS...A NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ACROSS NC.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35979063 36008866 36048709 36288647 36088416 35628137
   35728019 35687799 34907739 34227735 33547793 31848059
   33918198 34598606 34988863 35069065 35579093

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202317Z - 210115Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST FROM THE FAR EASTERN TX
   PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WATCH
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR
   NORTHERN OK...A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED ACROSS
   HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OK AS OF 23Z...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
   ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
   THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 F. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INVERTED-V
   PROFILE BELOW 600 MB WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DCAPE OF 1200-1500 J/KG PER RUC
   DIAGNOSTICS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
   
   35410055 36490024 36899740 36109773 35239993

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN MS/FAR NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202331Z - 210000Z
   
   NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR NERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN AR /IZARD COUNTY/
   AND FAR WRN TN /LAUDERDALE AND HAYWOOD COUNTIES/ ALONG THE
   QAUSI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE
   INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY
   REMAINING MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/.  THIS REGION
   IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION DECREASING WITH
   SWD EXTENT INTO ERN AR AND NRN MS.  THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
   EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  IN
   ADDITION TO THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK EWD WITHIN HIGH PW AIR MASS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...LZK...SGF...
   
   35059025 35479184 35939262 36479277 36509176 36268997
   36028849 35698667 34698664 34838867

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MT AND NORTHEAST WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...
   
   VALID 210004Z - 210130Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367 CONTINUES ACROSS
   MT/FAR NORTHERN WY UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG STORMS/MCS IS MOVING
   EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MT AT THIS TIME...FROM WESTERN
   GARFIELD COUNTY INTO PHILLIPS COUNTY AS OF 2345Z. ALTHOUGH SHORT
   TERM SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY
   WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE
   AIRMASS PER NIL CAPE/STRONG CINH EVIDENT IN 00Z OBSERVED GLASGOW
   RAOB. FARTHER SOUTH...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO PERSIST
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHEAST
   WY...WHERE THE AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE OUTSIDE
   OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS /NAMELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO
   NORTHEAST WY/. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW 367 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT VIA LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   45291028 46310971 47570896 48710895 48660696 47660549
   46260455 43630418 43720564 44800734 45020857

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/PARTS OF WRN-SWRN NC/WRN SC/NRN GA/NERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...
   
   VALID 210047Z - 210115Z
   
   WW 366 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z.  HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 01Z ACROSS FAR SERN TN/NRN GA AND NERN
   AL...GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION...
   UPSTREAM STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SRN PARTS OF
   WRN/MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD INTO NERN AL/FAR SERN TN/NRN
   GA LATER THIS EVENING...POSING A SEVERE THREAT AS WELL ACROSS THIS
   AREA. 
   
   AIR MASS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID MS VALLEY MID LEVEL IMPULSE
   AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
   EVENING.  MEANWHILE...AIR MASS OVER WRN PARTS OF NC/SC INTO MUCH OF
   ERN TN APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER ACTIVITY...THUS
   LIMITING AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THESE PARTS OF TN/NC/SC.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   34478663 35358649 36208460 36068299 35548041 34938033
   34588106 34168176 33798171 34318607

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0835 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC/CENTRAL-ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...
   
   VALID 210135Z - 210230Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING ACROSS VALID PART OF
   WW 368 AND AREAS N OF THIS WW OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC.
   
   AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO
   STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND WITH THE ONSET OF
   DIABATIC COOLING.  SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN SC
   AND ERN HALF OF NC THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHERE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...DECREASING
   INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   ISOLATED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   33458019 34388010 34877983 35067952 35347941 35847961
   35937809 35427594 34717609 34237722 33387808 32917879