Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 64.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...THE RAGGED ISLANDS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CABO ROJO LATE TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUE. TUTT
EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID WEEK ON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE WNW AROUND 22 MPH NEXT
12 HRS PASSING NEAR CABO ROJO LATE TODAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A 3-6
HR PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVR PR WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVR ERN PR. OVR THE WRN
HALF OF PR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE. GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN STRONG CONVECTION.

BERTHA MOVES QUICKLY NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND WINDS
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HI-RES WRF NMM
SHOWS NOTHING AFTER 03Z SUN.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH QUICKLY ON SUN UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OVERALL...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LIKELY IN HEAVY
CONVECTION. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY NOON AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVY CONVECTION. WINDS
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z
SUN EVERYWHERE.


&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT EXPECTED AS
BERTHA TRACKS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING
9-11 FT AS SEEN ON BUOY 42060 SE OF ST. CROIX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 78 88 81 / 100 70 0 20
STT 80 79 89 81 / 100 70 0 20

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY SQUALLS MOVING INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 65.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...155 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...135 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION SECTION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST...EASTERN
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL INTERIOR...PONCE AND
VICINITY...NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...
SOUTHWEST...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS AND ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3N...LONGITUDE 64.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX
VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
BERTHA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO WEST NORTHWEST NEXT 12 HOURS PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF PONCE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN BANDS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND INTENSE LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY ONCE THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY...KEEPING NETWORK
COMMUNICATIONS AS OPEN AS POSSIBLE FOR EMERGENCIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 930 AM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-021645-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
625 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST AT PONCE AND
IS NEAR 80 PERCENT.

[cycloneye]

Reporting from San Juan that heavy showers are moving thru. My station had a 32 mph gust a short time ago. And is also raining where the rivers and lakes are to fill them to aliviate the drought and suspend the rationing of water that is programmed to begin next week and hopefully that is the case. Pending any power outage or lack of internet I will be posting during the day how things are going in PR.

[tropicwatch]

Catherines Hope

Station ID: ISTCROIX6

Lat: 17.75 Lon: -64.61 Elev: 325 ft

Current
Forecast
Graph





78.1 °

Feels Like 78° F






45.8 mph

Wind From SSE

Gusts 56.0 mph



Dew Point: 75° F

Humidity: 91 %


Precip Rate: 0.01 in/hr

Precip Accum: 0.50 in


Pressure: 29.88 in

Visibility: - mi

Updated 16 sec ago

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...SQUALLS AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION SECTION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST...EASTERN
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL INTERIOR...PONCE AND
VICINITY...NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...
SOUTHWEST...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS AND ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9N...LONGITUDE 65.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 82 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 79 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX VI.
STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS
50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
BERTHA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO WEST NORTHWEST NEXT 12 HOURS PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF PONCE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN BANDS WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND INTENSE LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY ONCE THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR DURING TEMPORARY
LULLS AS FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY...AND SUDDENLY...CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY...KEEPING NETWORK
COMMUNICATIONS AS OPEN AS POSSIBLE FOR EMERGENCIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO FAILED TO MAKE IT TO SAFE HARBOR OR PORT...
AND ARE NOW IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY
DISTRESS BEACON. ENSURE THAT EVERYONE IS WEARING LIFE JACKETS...
AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

[Rincoin]

Here in Rincon, PR on the west coast of the island. Patchy clouds and sun still with light breeze. Glad to have the rain for our friends on the east side of the island. We will see if anything ramps up later but so far moisture not sustaining over here. Here is my weather station if anyone wants to keep an eye out....http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php
Stay safe.

[redneck51]

Lots of rain here in the hills of Las Piedras (east PR). A couple of strong gusts but nothing like tropical storm force winds.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST SUN AUG 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON AND
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUTT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY UNDER
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
46W. WAVE AXIS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUE AFTERNOON WITH
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ON TAP. MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH WED THEN
DRIES OUT SHARPLY AGAIN THU THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDY
AND VERY WARM TODAY AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TUE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
LEAVING BEHIND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS...VFR CONDS RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES WITH SOME ISOLATED VCSH OVRNGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE ESE AT 5 TO 15 KTS AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF
SITES BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE...INCRG TO 10 TO 20 KT AFT 03/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 6 FT AT ALL LOCAL BUOYS XCPT
AT BUOY 41043 WHICH REMAINS AT 7.5 FT. WILL LIKELY CANCEL ALL
SCA`S BUT KEEP SCEC STATEMENTS DUE TO 20 KT WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 81 89 81 / 0 0 20 40
STT 90 81 90 81 / 0 10 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN AUG 3 2014


.DISCUSSION...AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT...ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITHOUT GENERATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH OUR
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE ARE
UNTIL THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL
CONTINUE AT 15-20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
THEREFORE SEAS WILL SLOWLY CALM DOWN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 89 81 87 / 0 20 40 40
STT 81 90 81 89 / 10 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST MON AUG 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS TODAY INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF FRAGMENTED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE
AREA OF FRAGMENTED CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREAFTER. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME VCSH..ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO E-NE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5-15 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AFTER 04/14Z FROM THE EAST TO E-NE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
THEREFORE SEAS WILL SLOWLY CALM DOWN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 87 78 / 20 40 40 30
STT 90 81 89 80 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST MON AUG 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEST PR RECEIVED JUST ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE CORDILLERA. NOT SURE YET THAT THEY WILL
ELSEWHERE BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING FROM THIS MORNING.
VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
SPREADING SHOWERS WESTWARD...SOME SHOWING UP ON TJUA BETWEEN USVI
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THEY ARE NUMEROUS ENOUGH ON QUADELOUPE RADAR
TO SUGGEST NUMEROUS FOR MUCH OF OUR WATERS THOUGH THUNDER APPEARS
A MORE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS IN THE 1.9 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE INTO WED BUT CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN DURING AFTERNOON BOTH TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE QUICK PASSING -SHRA
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE E-NE AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS FROM HURRICANE BERTHA TO HAVE INSIGNIFICANT IMPACT
HERE AS TRADES REMAIN DOMINANT. SEAS TO CONTINUE 6 FT OR LESS.
BERTHA MAY WEAKEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE JUST A LITTLE THOUGH
TUE/WED SO WINDS WOULD BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS...THEN
THE RIDGE RETURNS MORE ROBUST TOWARDS LATTER PART OF WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 78 88 / 50 40 30 30
STT 79 90 79 89 / 60 40 40 40

[Gustywind]

Reporting from San Juan that heavy showers are moving thru. My station had a 32 mph gust a short time ago. And is also raining where the rivers and lakes are to fill them to aliviate the drought and suspend the rationing of water that is programmed to begin next week and hopefully that is the case. Pending any power outage or lack of internet I will be posting during the day how things are going in PR.

Good to see that nothing bad happens in your area and a decent amount of water have brought high chances to erase the extreme severe drought... at least for a moment

[cycloneye]

Reporting from San Juan that heavy showers are moving thru. My station had a 32 mph gust a short time ago. And is also raining where the rivers and lakes are to fill them to aliviate the drought and suspend the rationing of water that is programmed to begin next week and hopefully that is the case. Pending any power outage or lack of internet I will be posting during the day how things are going in PR.

Good to see that nothing bad happens in your area and a decent amount of water have brought high chances to erase the extreme severe drought... at least for a moment

I can report that the water rationing that was to take place starting this week has been suspended until the end of this month but hopefully it rains more in the coming weeks to cancel it definitely.

[Gustywind]

Here is a recap from our daily newspaper called France-Antilles concerning Bertha's" trip" in Guadeloupe... especially calm or enough only for the sea as some waves have reached 6 meters.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 280423.php

WEATHER

Back to green provided at the end of day

Saturday, August 2, 2014 - 12 h 32

The storm tropical Bertha moves away from Guadeloupe. But caution is still required, since heavy downpours are still scheduled during the day.

This Saturday morning, around 10:30, Tropical Storm Bertha continued to move away from Guadeloupe and Northern Islands. The phenomenon was heading Northwest in the direction of Puerto Rico. In fact, weather France provided for a lifting of the level of yellow vigilance and a return to the green at the end of the day, around 17 hours. In the meantime, caution remains. Heavy downpours accompanied by thunderstorms are still planned for the day.
During the night, gusts of wind of 92 km/h were observed at La Désirade, thus rainfaill reached between 100 and 150 mm on the relief of Basse-Terre. At sea, waves of 6 metres were observed. Datas that correspond to a tropical storm of average importance, analyzed weather France Raizet station.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST TUE AUG 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TONIGHT...AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PASSING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER
LAS MARIAS...MARICAO AND HORMIGUEROS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TOMORROW...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL PASS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH OUR SOUTH. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE EXPECTED...AS SJU-
GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 2.10 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...THE REST OF
THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD...CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. TSRA/SHRA OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 05/21Z AFFECTING MAINLY
TJMZ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-NE AT AROUND 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 79 88 / 30 30 20 20
STT 79 89 81 90 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST WED AUG 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...THIS ONE
WITH MORE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN...NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE SO FAR MINIMAL. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE GFS COMPUTER
MODEL INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 2.10
INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE. ACCORDINGLY TO THE GFS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR SOME SHORT PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS
WILL CONT MOV W ACROSS FA TIL AT LEST 06/12Z. THEREFORE...BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL
BE PSBL OVR ERN PR...AND ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR TJBQ...TJMZ. AFT
06/17Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVR CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR AND
VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH MTN TOP OBSCR ONCE GAIN PSBL TIL 06/22Z.
LLVL WINDS E-SE 15 TO 25 KT BLO FL200 WITH HIR SFC WND GUSTS MAINLY
ACCOMPANYING SHRA/+SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 20 20
STT 89 80 90 80 / 40 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

Reporting from San Juan that heavy showers are moving thru. My station had a 32 mph gust a short time ago. And is also raining where the rivers and lakes are to fill them to aliviate the drought and suspend the rationing of water that is programmed to begin next week and hopefully that is the case. Pending any power outage or lack of internet I will be posting during the day how things are going in PR.

Good to see that nothing bad happens in your area and a decent amount of water have brought high chances to erase the extreme severe drought... at least for a moment

I can report that the water rationing that was to take place starting this week has been suspended until the end of this month but hopefully it rains more in the coming weeks to cancel it definitely.

Excellent, happy to discover that PR is blessed !