Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST WED AUG 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND TUTT OVER EASTERN HISPANOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT PR
AND USVI LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BETWEEN THE WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 70W...HAVE INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND NORTHWEST PR THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER
HAND...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. BLENDED TPW ANALYSIS ESTIMATES PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.4-1.5 INCHES UPSTREAM OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS DRY
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...THE TROPICAL
WAVE NOW ALONG 53W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...
AFFECTING PR AND USVI LATE FRIDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...DRY AIR
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY MONDAY...INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. IT IS TO EARLY TO ESTIMATE THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE UPCOMING WAVES...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR EVOLUTION ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS FM THE
SE AT 15-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT FRI. SEAS 4-5 FT BUILDING
TO 6 FT FRIDAY WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 88 / 0 0 20 60
STT 80 90 80 90 / 0 0 20 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST THU AUG 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WESTWARD WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45 WEST THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOSTLY OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. LATEST
SATELLITES IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA IS
BETWEEN TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
SECOND ONES ALONG 45 WEST. AS THE WAVE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA
MOVES WESTWARD AND WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION...AN AREA OF DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST...LIMITING THE
SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 45 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE GFS
COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.00 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A NARROW AREA OF DRY AIR WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES TO AROUND
2.20 INCHES ON TUESDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A LARGE
AREA OF DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS
WILL CONT MOV W ACROSS FA TIL AT LEST 06/12Z. THEREFORE...BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL
BE PSBL OVR ERN PR...AND ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR TJBQ...TJMZ. AFT
06/17Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVR CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR AND
VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH MTN TOP OBSCR ONCE GAIN PSBL TIL 06/22Z.
LLVL WINDS E-SE 15 TO 25 KT BLO FL200 WITH HIR SFC WND GUSTS MAINLY
ACCOMPANYING SHRA/+SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS TROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS INCREASING TO 6 FEET SEAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 0 20 60 40
STT 90 80 89 78 / 0 20 60 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST THU AUG 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT PR AND USVI LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BETWEEN THE WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR DOMINATING THE
LOCAL REGION TODAY. BLENDED TPW ANALYSIS ESTIMATES PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE USVI. THIS
RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...
THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES...AFFECTING PR AND
USVI EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...DRY AIR WILL
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY MONDAY...INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SURGE...
LEADING TO SQUALLY WEATHER/FAST MOVING CELLS. AN LARGE AREA SAHARAN
DUST WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND WAVE...ARRIVING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

AVIATION...VCTS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 21Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS FM
THE EAST AT 15-25 KT BELOW 20K FT.

&&

MARINE...WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT FRIDAY. SEAS 4-5 FT BUILDING
TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 89 / 20 60 50 30
STT 80 89 78 89 / 20 60 50 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will movet thru PR and VI later today bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST FRI AUG 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE PRESSURE
WEAKENS FROM A TROUGH EXTENDING VERY WEAKLY OUT OF A LOW TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A RIDGE ON
SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PREPARE THE AREA
FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY GENERALLY BEFORE NOON AND THEN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND
PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
ON SATURDAY IN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE AND GOOD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR THE GREATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS BEGAN POPPING UP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY A FEW ACTUALLY MOVED ONSHORE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH GOOD MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THE BARBADOS
AND MARTINIQUE RADARS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AROUND 09/00Z WHEN THE GFS SHOWS
2.14 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAN JUAN. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR OVER SAINT THOMAS AROUND 09/06Z AS SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR FIRST IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE HEAVY SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE CLEARING. HAVE CHOSEN TO STAY WITH
THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM IN EARLIER THAN THE NAM SINCE THE
GFS HAS TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW AND THE NAM DOES NOT MOVE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION IN UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
BRINGS 30-35 KT WINDS AT 10 KFT ON MONDAY AFTER THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AND
EXPECT LESS RAINFALL OVERALL WITH THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN EASTERLY FLOW WITH MODEST MOISTURE PREVAILS
FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEAK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...UP TO NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES 40 WEST. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED LATE THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME...AFTER THE FIRST AND SECOND WAVES PASS THROUGH
SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PEAK AROUND MID-
WEEK. IT COULD PROVE TO BE AS DUSTY HERE THEN AS AT ANYTIME IN THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TKPK AND TNCM AS
TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS PERIODS OF TSRA/SHRA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 08/12Z. THEN...TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTION OF TJSJ AND TJPS WHERE MVFR WILL BE GENERALLY AFT 08/18Z
IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH TROPICAL
WAVE AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST 18 KNOTS DURING A FEW HOURS
OF THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 60 60 50 40
STT 89 78 89 80 / 70 50 30 40

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will movet thru PR and VI later today bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST FRI AUG 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE PRESSURE
WEAKENS FROM A TROUGH EXTENDING VERY WEAKLY OUT OF A LOW TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A RIDGE ON
SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PREPARE THE AREA
FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY GENERALLY BEFORE NOON AND THEN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND
PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
ON SATURDAY IN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE AND GOOD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR THE GREATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS BEGAN POPPING UP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY A FEW ACTUALLY MOVED ONSHORE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH GOOD MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THE BARBADOS
AND MARTINIQUE RADARS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AROUND 09/00Z WHEN THE GFS SHOWS
2.14 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAN JUAN. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR OVER SAINT THOMAS AROUND 09/06Z AS SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR FIRST IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE HEAVY SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE CLEARING. HAVE CHOSEN TO STAY WITH
THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM IN EARLIER THAN THE NAM SINCE THE
GFS HAS TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW AND THE NAM DOES NOT MOVE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION IN UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
BRINGS 30-35 KT WINDS AT 10 KFT ON MONDAY AFTER THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AND
EXPECT LESS RAINFALL OVERALL WITH THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN EASTERLY FLOW WITH MODEST MOISTURE PREVAILS
FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEAK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...UP TO NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES 40 WEST. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED LATE THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME...AFTER THE FIRST AND SECOND WAVES PASS THROUGH
SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PEAK AROUND MID-
WEEK. IT COULD PROVE TO BE AS DUSTY HERE THEN AS AT ANYTIME IN THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TKPK AND TNCM AS
TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS PERIODS OF TSRA/SHRA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 08/12Z. THEN...TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTION OF TJSJ AND TJPS WHERE MVFR WILL BE GENERALLY AFT 08/18Z
IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH TROPICAL
WAVE AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST 18 KNOTS DURING A FEW HOURS
OF THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 60 60 50 40
STT 89 78 89 80 / 70 50 30 40

Yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica. See latest advisories for these two islands: http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane then click on Guadeloupe or Martinica.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N60W TO
10N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-
63W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI AUG 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THEN...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PROGRESSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS PR AND USVI MEASURED
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS REPORTED IN
TISX...ST. CROIX OF 43 MPH. AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. IT
APPEARS THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL PR
AND WEST PR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL ADVECT OVER USVI... CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF
SATURDAY...LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO MID-
MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA
THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND
SURGE...LEADING TO SQUALLY WEATHER/FAST MOVING CELLS. A LARGE AREA
SAHARAN DUST WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE...ARRIVING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 09/12Z...AS DRIER AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-21 KT AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL POSE A
LIGHTNING HAZARD. T-STORMS WILL BE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 90 / 40 20 0 40
STT 79 90 79 91 / 60 10 0 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST SAT AUG 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW IS ABOUT 720 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN WEST CROSSING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED BETWEEN 20 AND 30
NORTH LATITUDE. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A WEAK LOW MAY MAKE A
TRANSIT ACROSS THE AREA ON 19 AUGUST.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH PASSED
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE INTO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. A WEAKER HIGH FORMS NORTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTS TO THE WEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS REMAINED HEAVY AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE PUERTO
RICO DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN
ALSO MOVED ACROSS SAINT CROIX. MODELS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF
DRYING TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE GFS
WHICH DEPICTS DRYING OF THE LAYERS ABOVE 850 MB THAT WILL PRETTY
MUCH EXCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO BEING CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWEST BY
THE FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE ISLAND DURING THE DAY AS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL FORM A FEW SHOWERS. MUST REGARD THE NAM SOLUTION AS
TOO WET FOR THE EXPECTED DRYING ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL. IT SHOWS
MORE THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. TIMING OF
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE OR A LITTLE LATE...SO AM KEEPING THE
INVASION OF MORE SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT DEPICTIONS SHOW NO MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY THAN WAS HAD FRIDAY AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BUT WINDS OR NEAR-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS MAY BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN THIS WEEK AS GFS SHOWS UP TO 34 KNOTS AS
LOW AS 9 KFT ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WIND SURGE BEHIND THE SECOND
WAVE. LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NONDESCRIPT AFTER THIS WAVE
AND WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEK FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SINCE AFTER THE
NEXT WAVE PASSAGE HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LOW LEVELS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER
THE WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH AROUND TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL 9/12Z. THEN...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BETWEEN 09/18-21Z
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH CLOUDS INCREASING CAUSING MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS OVER TJBQ/TJMZ. EAST WINDS
AT 10-20 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WIND 15 TO 20
KNOT FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN THE UNPROTECTED WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHING THE NEXT
10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 78 / 20 0 40 60
STT 90 79 91 79 / 20 0 60 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SUN AUG 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS IN A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE WEST...TO NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE. A SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND
PASS ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN TURN DRY AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY BECAME PEPPERED WITH SMALL
SHOWERS IN THE MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW. A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS MOVED
INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO WILL LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATIONS AS OF 5 AM AST. THE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE AROUND A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE IS NOW APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE
MOISTURE WITH THE AXIS OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MODEST...BUT COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 36 HOURS
BEGINNING 11/00Z SHOULD BE FAIRLY THOROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AROUND 12/23Z. DRYING DOES NOT REALLY
BEGIN UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS EXPECTS
BETTER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL EXCEED THE PEAK
ON TUESDAY. IT IS THIS MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THAT THE HURRICANE CENTER
IS GIVING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA WITH
ISOLATED MVFR OVER TNCM/TKPK AFTER 10/18Z...VCSH FOR TIST/TISX
AROUND 10/22Z. SCT-NUMR SHRA AROUND TJMZ-TJBQ BETWEEN 10/17-21Z WITH
OBSCURED MTNS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. EAST WINDS AT 10-20
KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
TROPICAL WAVE. VERY LOCAL AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY AROUND THE WESTERN
CORNERS OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE CARIBBEAN OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
PONCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 20 80 80 50
STT 90 79 88 80 / 20 80 80 60

[cycloneye]

There is a new invest in the Atlantic (94L) that we will have to watch in the Eastern Caribbean in the coming days. Get all the information at the Invest 94L discussion thread. Also,there will be information posted in this thread.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
showers, and some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SUN AUG 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH WED. TUTT LOW
OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF PR WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT WITH RIDGE REESTABLISHING NEXT WEEKEND. TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING BARBADOS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SAL
WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION QUICKLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
COASTS OF PR...USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LULL
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MON OR MON NIGHT UNTIL WAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS.
ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND LARGE
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. AS OPPOSED TO LAST FRIDAY`S WAVE...THIS WAVE
WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE MOVING
VERY FAST SO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
THIS TIME.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EXPECTED WED-SAT UNDER SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WITH FAIR WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE DESIGNATED
AS INVEST 94L IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT
SUN AUG 17. NHC/WPC 1PM COORDINATION CALL HAS WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY
A LOW PRES AREA AROUND 14N AND 62W VALID 12Z SUN AUG 17. GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST CHANCE OF WX WITH THIS WAVE NEXT SUN-SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 6 HRS. SHALLOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AND MON WITH
T-STORMS POSSIBLE. DUST HAZE ALSO EXPECTED BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO REDUCE
VSBYS BELOW 7SM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT. T-STORMS MON AND
ESPECIALLY TUE MAY BE STRONG AND REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 90 / 50 50 30 40
STT 79 88 80 90 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure
is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N22W TO
19N20W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 17W-25W AS DEPICTED IN THE SENEGAL
RAWINDSONDES AND THE GFS ANALYSIS. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS SOUTH
OF A 30-40 KT AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NOTED IN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N17W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST MON AUG 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
WEST TO ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF AGUADILLA SATURDAY BEFORE BEING
CAUGHT UP AND CARRIED AWAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF A MIGRATING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FROM A HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON THE WEEKEND...A LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO ON THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
NORTH LATITUDE. WESTWARD MIGRATING TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY THE ONE
ON FRIDAY WILL BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THAT WITH
LITTLE EFFECT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRYING WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE...OR
POSSIBLY A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
COAST AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
ISLAND AS FAR WEST AS UTUADO OVERNIGHT SPREADING UP TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS. HEAVY SHOWERS WERE GENERALLY
STRADDLING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUT BANDS OF CLOUDS
WITH LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SEEN ADVANCING ON
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM MANY HUNDREDS OF MILES
EAST. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FROM UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO LITTLE SHEAR
TO TEAR ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION APART. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY GROW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OVER LAND AND THEN
OVER LOCAL WATERS AFTER SUNSET BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ON TUESDAY AROUND 12/1800Z...BUT
THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE WAVE IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED NOR IS MOISTURE PARTICULARLY RICH BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB
THEREFORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO STREAM OVER ANY
ONE PLACE VERY LONG...HOLDING EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2
INCHES DAILY EXCEPT IN THE MOST LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE GFS IS STILL
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR
MASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM AND THE GFS BOTH
INDICATE THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN
WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN FACT THE TROUGH THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AT MID LEVELS IS MOSTLY DRY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKENING IN
THE LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 12 NORTH 28 WEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. FOR THE TIME BEING...UNTIL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
CONFIRMED...WILL TREAT THE DISTURBANCE AS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND SOME INCREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FCST AREA WILL CREATE
SCT-NUM SHRA ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. THEREFORE...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-20
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET WITH WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS BEFORE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 79 86 79 / 60 50 70 30
STT 86 79 87 79 / 60 60 70 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has changed little in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is still
possible in a few days after it encounters a more conducive
environment while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 22N TO A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N23W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity remains limited in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for the next several days, and any development
of this disturbance should be slow to occur while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N26W TO
20N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W-37W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS SOUTH OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA NEAR 16N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST MON AUG 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH WED. TUTT LOW
OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF PR WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW SHOWS TROPICAL WAVE AXIS RIGHT ALONG 66W
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS POSITIVY VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND A MOISTURE SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NMRS/FRQ BUT ALSO MOVING FASTER AS
STEEERIG WINDS STRENGTHEN. SO OVERALL...TUE APPEARS VERY ACTIVE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. SAL ESTABLISHES WED AND HOLDS THRU FRI WITH
SAHARAN DUST. NEXT WAVE ALONG 28W IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW
PRES AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AS
IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARDS SAT WHILE MOST OF GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A
CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION WHEN IT APPROACHES ST. CROIX SAT. IT
APPEARS THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE DRY WHEN
IT REACHES THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA SO ONLY A WEAK SHEARED SYSTEM
SIMILAR TO BERTHA IS THE WORST PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT PASSING
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND
TJMZ UNTIL 11/22Z. MVFR CONDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTED
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CAUSING
VCSH/VCTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS FROM THE ESE
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY UNTIL
11/23Z...LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...T-STORMS TONIGHT AND TUE MAY BE STRONG AND REQUIRE
ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 92 / 30 50 0 0
STT 80 87 80 90 / 40 40 0 0