Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity remains limited in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands. Little development is expected during the next
couple of days due to the system moving through a dry and stable
atmosphere over marginally warm waters. After that time,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
development over the western tropical Atlantic Ocean while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT 500
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS UNTIL THURSDAY. AT THAT
TIME IT WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM IT CROSSING PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF US INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A BROAD TROUGH MIGRATING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SPACED ARC-BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS AIR LADEN
WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE EASTERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT
BECAME MORE NUMEROUS AS BANDING IN THE TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH THE AXIS WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE VAD PRODUCT ON
NEXRAD AT CAYEY SHOWED LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURNING FROM EAST
NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12/03-12/06Z AND WITH
CONFIRMATION FROM NEWLY FORMING ARC-BANDS ON THE RADAR SUSPECT
THAT THIS WAS THE WAVE PASSAGE. GFS PROGNOSTICATIVE SOUNDING
SHOWED BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 12/18Z THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
CAPE OVER 3300 AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 7.4. THIS SHOULD GIVE
AMPLE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS NOTWITHSTANDING THE WIDE
SPACING OF THE SHOWER BANDS THAT ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOMEWHAT DRY
WAVE. EVEN AT THIS TIME THE SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 70 TO 75 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH 30 KFT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER THAT WE HAVE AT PRESENT BETTER RH WILL BE SEEN. THEREFORE IN
SPITE OF HIGHER POPS WILL JUST CALL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS THEN SHOW
DRYING OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND NAAPS SHOWS MODERATE
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE SOUNDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS DRY...ISOLATED
SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL LEAVE A LITTLE MEASURABLE
RAIN. THEN IN THE AFTERNOONS BRIEF CONVECTION WILL FORM IN THE
AFTERNOONS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE THING THAT WILL BE FELT THE
MOST...HOWVER...WILL BE THE CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH MORE SUN AND EASTERLY WINDS...SOME
INLAND SITES COULD RISE INTO THE MID 90S. THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH AT MID LEVELS ON FRIDAY MIGHT ORDINARILY HAVE BROUGHT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS A LONG NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST BAND OF GOOD MOISTURE AT 850 MB OVER PUERTO RICO AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH ON THURSDAY AT 14/18Z...THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
FEW MORE SHOWERS IN THE WEST THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
FORMING. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER
MOISTURE OCCURRING THEN THAN NOW...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS
THE WAVE PASSAGE WE ARE NOW IN. CLEARING WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MID-
WEEK. AT PRESENT MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AS
OPEN WAVES OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY WEAK LOWS FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PASSING
SHRA OR VCSH THAT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT MOST TERMINALS. AFTER
12/16Z...ISOLD TSRA PSBL ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPO MVFR
CONDS IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. ALSO...MTN TOPS OBSCURED DURG PD OVR PR DUE
TO LOW CLDS AND PASSING SHRA. WIND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS BLO FL200.
HIGHER GUSTS TO BE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE A LITTLE
ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEP SEAS RELATIVELY ROUGH IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED
WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 91 78 / 70 30 10 10
STT 89 79 90 79 / 60 20 0 10

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with with a westward-moving broad area
of low pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has diminished. Environmental conditions are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A TUTT LOW WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS NOW SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUED WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILING THE WAVE WAS NOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WAS NOTED ACCOMPANYING EXTENSIVE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WITH HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FILTER IN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUED
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. RECENT UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE REGION AS WELL AS TJSJ ALREADY SUGGEST GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE MID LEVELS AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUED TO QUICKLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...STILL CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION AND AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO
RICO WHERE LOCAL FORCING IS STRONGER. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TO BE FAST MOVING STEERED BY THE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. MOST OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
STREAM NORTHWESTWARDS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STABLE AIR
MASS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL
FRIDAY. AT THE MOMENT...THE NEXT ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SO FAR STILL
MODELS ALL SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH UNSTABLE AND DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT
LEAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE IS STILL SOME WAYS OFF AND CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PASSING
SHRA OR VCSH THAT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT MOST TERMINALS. AFTER 12/16Z...ISOLD
TSRA PSBL ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA. ALSO...MTN TOP OBSCR DURG PRD OVR PR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND PASSING
SHRA. WIND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS BLO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS MAY CAUSE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 90 / 20 10 10 10
STT 79 90 80 90 / 20 0 10 10

[gatorcane]

Looks like you may get some more rain Luis

[cycloneye]

Looks like you may get some more rain Luis

Yes and needed rain to make more dent to the drought as TS Bertha didn't bring a lot of rain.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1036 PM AST TUE AUG 12 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO SHORT TERM FORECAST IN
ORDER TO MATCH CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRESS...MOVING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BRIEF WEAKENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 39W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED EVOLVING PATTERN CONTINUE TO EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WEST AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS
CANT BE RULED OUT. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 39W IS STILL FORECAST TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH
UNSTABLE AND DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TUTT LOW
WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THEREFORE...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 2.3 INCHES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING TO PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST
IS MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES.
HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 30
STT 90 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST WED AUG 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EXTENDING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TUTT LOW WAS CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE TUTT LOW
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND RELOCATE NORTH OF THE
REGION BY THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 43 WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOMEWHAT HAZY CONDITIONS...AS
THE EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH ACCOMPANYING HIGH CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS OVERALL DRYING TREND RESULTED IN LIMITED OR NO RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WHICH MAY REACH THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HOWEVER
HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST
PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED...AND IF
ANY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING REASONABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LASTING AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DECREASING TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING . SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS MAINLY
DUE TO THE LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 90 / 10 10 30 30
STT 80 91 80 92 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 46W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWER LOW TODAY AND
FRIDAY. ONLY SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE FROM SATURDAY MORNING LASTING TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.2 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 700MB THETAE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS 340K. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION...URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODS ARE LIKELY...AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW
ANY OTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
LLVL WINDS BELOW FL100 WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-30 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 10 30 30 10
STT 90 79 91 80 / 10 30 30 10

[Gustywind]

Here is some news of Guadeloupe as our volcano la Soufrière continues to be active while numerous earthquakes have been registred. We should keep an eye on that as usual.

Earth trembles regularly

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 281943.php


Not a day without an earthquake is detected in the area. 135 were registered in July.

Beneath our feet, the months go by and look. In July, volcanological and seismological of Guadeloupe (OVSG) Observatory in an area of 450 km around Guadeloupe, registered a total of 135 earthquakes of tectonic origin. Exactly as in June. 42 were located. The recorded maximum magnitude is 3.7. No earthquake has been reported felt.

Regional seismic activity for the month of July is comparable to that of the previous month, except the month of may during which the activity was significantly increased following the earthquake in northeast of La Désirade and its many aftershocks.

With regard to the Guadeloupe archipelago, the geographical distribution of seismic activity is comparable to that of the previous months, with a shallow seismicity located primarily along major faults distributed between Martinique and Barbuda systems.

LES SAINTES STILL UNDER PRESSURE

84 earthquakes of maximum magnitude 1.6 have been recorded in the area of aftershocks of Les Saints of November 21, 2004, between Les Saintes and Dominica (against 68 in June). No earthquake has been reported felt in the Saintes.

Moreover, the Observatory has recorded four earthquakes of volcanic origin, located within 2 km of depth, under the dome of the Soufriere Hills. One of these earthquakes is a volcano-tectonic, said VT (1), with a magnitude of 0.4. An earthquake of type long period (LP) were recorded during the month of July.

(1) earthquake VT match breaks on small fractures. LP earthquakes are associated with phenomena of resonance in fluids under pressure in the building.A fumerolienne activity on the increase

On the Soufriere, very popular in this holiday period, the fumerolienne activity is always elevated with strong flows at Southern crater (on all 3 emission vents) and solid sulfur accumulations. Droplets of hydrochloric acid are mixed with volcanic gas. On the other active areas - abyss Tarissan, crater Napoleon, abyss 1956, fractures Lacroix, crater Breislack, road of the tank - activity is average, with however more trend to increased flows. The gaseous emanations in the vicinity and downwind of the southern crater fumarole risk, since 1998, irritation and burns to eyes, skin and respiratory tract. Due to the presence of these toxic gases, a bylaw of the town of Saint-Claude prohibits public access to certain areas of the Summit.

On the basis of the observations of the OVSG recorded during the month of July, no eruptive activity is expected soon, but the current level of vigilance remains yellow.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 50W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY AND IT
WAS MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. OTHER THAN THAT...ONLY PARTLY
TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS
WESTERN PR SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHEN SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
HELPED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN PR. HOWEVER ON SATURDAY THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING IN THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS COVERING MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASES WITH P-WAT
VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...CLOSE TO 2.2 INCHES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...QUICKLY DRYING ON SUNDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW ANY OTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
NO SIG CONVECTION FCST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA SO FAR OVR THE
ISLANDS OR EN ROUTE BTW PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND TAF SITES WITH OCNL SFC WND
GUST OF 22 KTS OR SO POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL BE UP
TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 91 / 30 30 10 50
STT 79 91 80 90 / 30 30 10 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST FRI AUG 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 53 WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PR AND USVI. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRESH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAVE PUSHED PASSING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR ESTIMATES A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR EL YUNQUE AREA WITH
THESE MORNING SHOWERS. IN CONTRAST...THE SATELLITE TPW ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES UPSTREAM OF
THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS SUSTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CAP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS A RESULT...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI TODAY.
THEN...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 53W WILL ENTER LATE TONIGHT...
AFFECTING USVI AND PR ON SATURDAY. A WIND SURGE ACCOMPANIED THIS
WAVE...THEREFORE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PEAK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE
ISLANDS FAIRLY QUICKLY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THE RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE WAVE SHOULD REDUCE THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
PR/USVI. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A DRIER/DUSTY AIR MASS REACHING
THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ANY SHOWER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INCOMING MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADES. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
LLVL WINDS BELOW FL100 WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
15-30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY ALONG WITH 20-FOOT WINDS FROM
THE EAST OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH...WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 20 20 60 30
STT 90 79 89 80 / 20 30 60 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY DRY AIR WAS OBSERVED TODAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DRY UNTIL THE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY AT AROUND 58
WEST...REACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE...DRYING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OBSERVED WERE MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HAZY SKIES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE
LOCAL AREA.


THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SHARP INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM ABOUT 1.3 INCHES CURRENTLY TO ABOUT 2.25 INCHES BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY HAS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT RAPIDLY
MOVES TO THE WEST. SO WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME MOMENTS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN BUT THE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED AS
THE WAVE AND THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...LEAVING DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
DRYING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SO THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS SEEN IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CAUSING EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER 16/03Z
FIRST AT LEEWARD TERMINALS THEN AFTER 09Z AT USVI AND AFTER 12Z AT
JSJ. ADDED VCTS WITH BKN020CB CIGS TO THESE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 79 91 / 20 60 30 30
STT 79 88 79 90 / 30 60 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR AND USVI. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK...INCREASING THE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...IR SAT IMAGERY HAS
SHOWED COOLING TOPS/INTENSE STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
LEFT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES SO FAR THIS MORNING.
LATEST BLENDED TPW ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 2.0+ INCHES
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PR/USVI REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. OPERATIONALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL CROSS
THE ISLANDS FAIRLY QUICKLY AT ABOUT 20 KT. THE MAIN CORCERN WITH
THIS WAVE IS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER PUERTO
RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AROUND 16/18Z IN SHRA/TSRA. AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT TIST...TISX
AND TJSJ AFT 12Z...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF PR TERMINALS AFTER
15Z. THEREFORE...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
LLVL WINDS BELOW FL100 WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST 15 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS LATER TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE DANGUEROUS LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 70 30 30 20
STT 87 79 88 81 / 70 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND YIELD TO AN ADVANCING LOW FROM THE EAST. THIS
LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO SOUTH OF 20 NORTH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY AND DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SUBTROPICS SOUTH OF 32 NORTH. WEAK TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVES PASSAGES ARE INDICATED UNTIL THE LAST
COMPLETE WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ONTO THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND AFTER 10:30 AM AST AND MOVED AS FAR
AS VEGA BAJA AND BARRANQUITAS AS OF 1:30 PM AST. DURING THAT TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FORMED OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SOME TOPS REACHED 53 KFT. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
RICH...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WITH 82 DEGREES
IN SAN JUAN. ACTIVITY SO FAR...HOWEVER...HAS GENERATED A THICK
OVERCAST THAT IS SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING
THE CONVECTION NOW RUNNING WITH THE WAVE. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
MOVING AROUND 20 KNOTS TO THE WEST...THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED AND UP TO NOW NO FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED. AS OF 2 PM AST MAXIMUM RAIN OCCURRED OVER THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN MARICAO AND SABANA GRANDE WITH ALMOST 2 INCHES AND JUST
NORTH OF RIO GRANDE OVER THE INNER WATERS. SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS INDICATED WEST OF THE FIRST MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AFOREMENTIONED AFFECTING MAINLY HORMIGUEROS AND SOUTHERN MAYAGUEZ.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND THE NAM SHOWS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MORE INTENSE RAIN
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DRYING FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES BUT DOES NOT DISAPPEAR.
THIS IS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. SHALLOW LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WOULD BE
INDICATED THEN WITH SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THESE CONDITIONS WOULD ALSO INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE SAME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TKPK...TJPS AND
TNCM FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
THROUGH 16/23Z OVER TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND JBQ DUE TO LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER TJMZ DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND NEARBY
TSRA ACTIVITY. AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.


&&

.MARINE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS INDICATED
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ROUGH AND MARINERS WILL CONTINUE TO
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 70 20 20 20
STT 79 88 81 90 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west of the
Cape Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it begins to move slowly
westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. GRADUALLY DRYING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN...DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/EASTERN HISPANOLA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND OF THE WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR.

RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATE MONDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT OVER THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A
FEW ROUNDS OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH
TO WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND CAP. MOISTURE COULD BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR...HOWEVER WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. THEN...BETWEEN 17/16Z-17/21Z SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WILL CREATE MTN TOP OBSC AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 17/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
211 PM AST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA WILL YIELD TO THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT
730 MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD TROUGH THAT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUB TROPICS BETWEEN
20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE NEXT WEEK. WEAK TROUGHS APPROACH AND LOSE
STRENGTH SEVERAL TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS IS AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH PASSES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. MID LEVELS ARE MODERATELY DRY EXCEPT WHEN THE
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE LATTER HAS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN
THE FIRST. A THIRD WAVE MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH OR A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR THE AREA ON THE FOLLOWING MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK IN THE USUALLY WETTER AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF PUERTO RICO
LEAVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. COASTAL AREAS
WERE HOWEVER GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST BAND THAT PRODUCED THESE SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
17/07Z AND THEN OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND THE CARIBBEAN AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRENADA BY 17/17Z. STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
MAYAGUEZ DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIGHTNING HAD NOT BEEN DETECTED BY
THE NWS BY 17/1730Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE AS A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNEXCITED BY WEAK FEATURES THAT MOVE THROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER MONDAY LOWER LEVEL WINDS GAIN A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND SHOWER FORMATION IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WILL FAVOR THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND HORMIGUEROS VICINITY. WEAK
WAVES DO INDEED PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
ARE MOST NOTABLE IN THE GFS 700 MB WIND FIELD. AT ANYTIME NEXT
WEEK DRY BANDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NEITHER STRONG NOR ENDURING
SUCH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AND WEAK SHOWERS DESTINED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TROPICS THAT COULD RESULT IN A LOW OR TROUGH
PASSAGE ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME ALL FEATURES FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA APPEAR TO BE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD WHERE OBSERVATIONS ARE PRESENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO DRIVE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...BUT MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET AND WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN BELOW 18 KNOTS. A FEW AREAS IN PUERTO RICO NEAR SHORE HOWEVER
WILL HAVE SEVERAL EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH 18 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
AND HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 90 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRESS
TONIGHT AND REACH THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW. THIS WILL
GREATLY INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND MON. ON
TUE...VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING SWD ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS WITH DRYING EXPECTED AGAIN ON WED. RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT THU
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WITH
EMBEDDED LOWS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WILL MOVE WWD REACHING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THU NIGHT AND MOVING WWD THROUGH THE ERN
AND CNTRL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
WAVES AS SUGGESTED BY MANY GEFS MEMBERS...UKMET AND CFSV2. WEEKEND
FCST TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY MORE DETAILS OTHER THAN AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND WINDS.