Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Just checked the and the current dew point is below the 70º threshold for this time of year! Better enjoy it before the return of the Amazon Rainforest this weekend.

There's already a Hydrologic Outlook in place here in South Florida.

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
320 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

...Potential For Heavy Rain and Flooding This Weekend into Next
Week...

Deep tropical moisture is forecast to work into South Florida from
the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico this weekend into next week. As
a result, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of
producing torrential rainfall across the outlook area can be
expected especially for the metro and coastal areas of Palm Beach,
Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties due to a south to southwest wind
flow.

The latest model runs are indicating total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches are possible with locally higher amounts up to 6
inches this weekend into early next week. With the grounds still
somewhat saturated from the heavy rains that have occurred over
South Florida during the last couple of weeks, and the additional
rainfall amounts mentioned above, a Flood Watch may be needed for
portions of South Florida sometime this weekend into next week.

Interests across South Florida are strongly encouraged to monitor
the latest information from the National Weather Service in Miami
Florida to prepare for the potential of heavy rain and flooding
this weekend into next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Afternoon thunderstorm activity is nonexistent across the Florida peninsula today. Only the big bend region and panhandle are seeing any sort of sea breeze thunderstorm action.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not suppose to rain in S. FL today. Sat evening through monday is when the trof suppose to interact with S. FL. The 500mb temps could be around 8-9c. So some could be strong with flooding by monday. Have to see if this materializes.

[toad strangler]

Not suppose to rain in S. FL today. Sat evening through monday is when the trof suppose to interact with S. FL. The 500mb temps could be around 8-9c. So some could be strong with flooding by monday. Have to see if this materializes.

What's with the rolleyes? 'Tis the season. Turn that frown upside down!

[floridasun78]

Not suppose to rain in S. FL today. Sat evening through monday is when the trof suppose to interact with S. FL. The 500mb temps could be around 8-9c. So some could be strong with flooding by monday. Have to see if this materializes.

hope not bad flood we have few week bad almost didnt make it home

[HURRICANELONNY]

Oh the rolleyes were for if it materializes. Most of the time they call for heavy rain and flooding but nothing happens. I knew this would be a pretty nice weekend on the east coast because they said it would rain. Had a shower this morning but that's it. Maybe during the upcoming week I'll get some rain.

[TheStormExpert]

Oh the rolleyes were for if it materializes. Most of the time they call for heavy rain and flooding but nothing happens. I knew this would be a pretty nice weekend on the east coast because they said it would rain. Had a shower this morning but that's it. Maybe during the upcoming week I'll get some rain.

Literally just the beginning to middle part of the past week they’re calling for a washout this weekend here in South Florida. Right now it’s Sunny with some building clouds off in the distance in Jupiter, FL. There’s still a 60% chance of storms between 2 to 3pm according to the NWS.

[gatorcane]

60% looks too high today. I would say more like 30% coverage for east coast metro. Looks like inland/interior I would say close to 80%. Issue is the steering flow needs to be a bit more from the west or WSW to get 60% or more coverage for the metro areas. Storms that are developing are just meandering around so will need to count on outflow boundaries to get activity along the coast.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The NWS usually gets it right but the timing usually off cause models over do it. According to the discussion the 200mb jet will inject moisture tonight through most of the week. Yesterday was a perfect boating day and today partly cloudy to cloudy with a chance showers. I think the real rain will come tomorrow and tuesday.

[TheStormExpert]

There’s a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon here in NE Palm Beach County assuming the wind flow can come more from a South and West direction.

Our best chances of rainfall may be on Thursday or Friday and into Saturday, keeping my fingers crossed!

[tgenius]

While i understand its very location specific, in my area of Miami there was literally a sprinkle the entire weekend that was prognosticated as a major rain event with 2+ inches expected. We are supposedly with 70% today but we shall see as currently its quite sunny out.

[gatorcane]

I think HurricaneLonny’s eye roll jinxed us here in SE Florida. Looks like a far cry from a washout that was originally forecasted for Sun-Tues just a few days back. We will see if the rains do come. It is hot and humid for sure so one would think we could get some big storms firing later today with seabreeze collision and daytime heating.

[TheStormExpert]

I think HurricaneLonny’s eye roll jinxed us here in SE Florida. Looks like a far cry from a washout that was originally forecasted for Sun-Tues just a few days back. We will see if the rains do come. It is hot and humid for sure so one would think we could get some big storms firing later today with seabreeze collision and daytime heating.

NWS: Miami says that today’s best threat of strong to severe thunderstorm activity is near the Miami metropolitan area. Like you said we’ve been jinxed!

[psyclone]

Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day show normal to below normal precip over fl. In fact the WPC 7 day QPF shows no rain from tampa bay northward through the big bend for the next week. Looks like a stretch of sunny summer weather is on tap overall. After all the rain of the past few weeks I will happily accept. Even the dewpoints around here feel sane by mid june standards.

[northjaxpro]

Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day show normal to below normal precip over fl. In fact the WPC 7 day QPF shows no rain from tampa bay northward through the big bend for the next week. Looks like a stretch of sunny summer weather is on tap overall. After all the rain of the past few weeks I will happily accept. Even the dewpoints around here feel sane by mid june standards.

Yes, Psyclone, a weak area of Low Pressure located just off the South Carolina coast, is shown by the latest GFS to meander in that vicinity for the next few days. We are benefiting being on the back side of that system. This will provide a drier and much less humid flow to the North Florida region for much of the rest of this week. I will gladly take it. A perfect time to dry out from all of the recent heavy rains here in the area, which you also alluded to Psyclone..

Enjoy the less humid weather for the next few days!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well if that's the case. I'm going to roll eyes everytime a hurricane is coming my way gatorcane.

[TheStormExpert]

Honestly this had to be one of the biggest forecast busts in awhile for South Florida at least. Didn’t get a drop of rain today and the rain chances were elevated in the likely category.

Like I said earlier today supposedly our best chances of rain for east Coast Metro areas is Thursday through Saturday that’s assuming we can get more of a southerly or even southwesterly flow in place. I personally wouldn’t be surprised at all if that busts as well.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Sometimes the NWS has to throw out model output and just look at the sat. The wv loops showed the upper low slowly heading south yesterday as the dry slot entered south florida. I told my friends there would be no rain today but they model hug too much without looking at the loops. What a perfect summer day but hot as usual.

The potential convection from model scenarios for today did not
materialize as it seems the advection of drier air was a little
more efficient than anticipated. No convective activity was
observed over land, including the southern areas, and with only a
few storms over the Atlantic waters earlier this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

Honestly this had to be one of the biggest forecast busts in awhile for South Florida at least. Didn’t get a drop of rain today and the rain chances were elevated in the likely category.

Like I said earlier today supposedly our best chances of rain for east Coast Metro areas is Thursday through Saturday that’s assuming we can get more of a southerly or even southwesterly flow in place. I personally wouldn’t be surprised at all if that busts as well.

Indeed when I was looking at the forecasts for Sun through Wed late last week, NWS was making it seem like a washout. It turned out to be drier than normal and actually pleasantly cool in the morning and evenings with NW windflow.

By the way, this setup is what brought much cooler air into the state last November and again in December with a low that parked over the SE US. Then the pattern flipped to strong Western Atlantic ridging. Wonder if this will repeat and as we head towards Aug-Sept, we get that strong Bermuda High that has really been mostly absent much of this spring so far?

[TheStormExpert]

Honestly this had to be one of the biggest forecast busts in awhile for South Florida at least. Didn’t get a drop of rain today and the rain chances were elevated in the likely category.

Like I said earlier today supposedly our best chances of rain for east Coast Metro areas is Thursday through Saturday that’s assuming we can get more of a southerly or even southwesterly flow in place. I personally wouldn’t be surprised at all if that busts as well.

Indeed when I was looking at the forecasts for Sun through Wed late last week, NWS was making it seem like a washout. It turned out to be drier than normal and actually pleasantly cool in the morning and evenings with NW windflow.

By the way, this setup is what brought much cooler air into the state last November and again in December with a low that parked over the SE US. Then the pattern flipped to strong Western Atlantic ridging. Wonder if this will repeat and as we head towards Aug-Sept, we get that strong Bermuda High that has really been mostly absent much of this spring so far?

Hopefully there continues to be no Bermuda High all this summer into fall, of course that won’t protect us from any mischief that could form in the Western Caribbean in October.

On another note the rain chances are pretty elevated in the 80-90% range for both tomorrow and Friday before slowly decreasing over the weekend. Will be interesting to see if we get anything considering there will be a SE wind around 10mph both days.