MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN MS/FAR NWRN
   AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...
   
   VALID 210228Z - 210330Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 370 AS NEW STORMS DEVELOP TO THE
   NW OF THIS WW IN SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/FAR NWRN TN AND TRACK SEWD INTO
   WW 370.
   
   STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SW TN
   HAVE MOVED ESE INTO SRN MIDDLE TN...WHILE THE WRN MOST STORM
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 371.
   MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN MO INTO FAR NWRN TN IS
   LIKELY ELEVATED.  ADDITIONAL ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WAA
   REGIME IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR INTO WRN TN AS
   SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THIS REGION INCREASES PER TRENDS IN RECENT
   WSR-88D VWPS AND SUGGESTED BY 00Z RUC. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
   
   34929110 36419134 37009095 36909011 36258787 35998649
   34438691

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/WRN-SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN
   GA/FAR WRN AND FAR SERN NC/NRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...371...
   
   VALID 210432Z - 210600Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06-07Z ACROSS
   WW/S 370 AND 371.
   
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH AIDING ASCENT WAS LOCATED ACROSS KY AT 04Z PER
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ACCOMPANYING 50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET
   NOW LOCATED OVER SWRN KY-ERN TN.  IN ADDITION...A 25-35 KT WLY LLJ
   EXTENDING FROM AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL IS MAINTAINING A WAA
   REGIME FOR ASCENT/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF QUASI-
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN AR TO SRN TN/NRN GA.
   EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS ERN PARTS OF
   WW 370 AND ALL OF WW 371.  FARTHER W...NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN PART OF WW 370...BEING FED BY
   RESERVOIR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER NRN AR/ERN OK.
   
   FARTHER E...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING KY
   MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN SC/SERN NC. HOWEVER...WEAK
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
   
   34538788 35449013 36619015 36858959 35708611 35628421
   34998311 34927984 34667792 33957847 33577923 33788165
   34008360 34208617

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 210453Z - 210630Z
   
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SE KS/SRN MO
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   LOCAL VWP AND PROFILER WINDS SHOW PRONOUNCED WAA ACROSS SE KS AND
   SRN MO...N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN OK AND NRN AR.
   A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG/
    FROM THE SW AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT MAY SUPPORT
   A FEW SUPERCELLS BASED NEAR 850 MB ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.  IF
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
   ACROSS THE SE KS AND SRN MO AREA.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   36748988 36249004 36479212 36999520 37349714 37879800
   38359777 38469645 37609304 37019037

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...SC...SRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211652Z - 211745Z
   
   CORRECTED NRN NC TO SRN NC FIRST SENTENCE
   
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF NERN
   GA...MUCH OF SC AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NC.
   
   CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM ERN TN AND NERN GA WILL MOVE
   INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SC AND SRN NC THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY INCREASING WHERE LIFT ALONG
   LEADING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN SC. LEE TROUGH ALSO
   APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
   AND INTERSECTS THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NWRN SC. THIS AREA COULD
   FURTHER PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FRONTAL ZONE LIES
   ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND HAS ALSO FOCUSED
   GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INCREASING
   INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NERN
   GA...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO SUGGEST
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
   DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS NRN SC...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE
   SRN NC BORDER AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   34207914 33287984 33938225 34378374 35128309 35518275
   34467909

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WY/WESTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/FAR
   NORTHEAST CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211920Z - 212115Z
   
   AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN WY/CO FRONT
   RANGE INTO WESTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST CO. ALTHOUGH
   QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING POTENTIAL SEVERITY/EXTENT...A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z.
   
   EXTENSIVE CUMULUS CONTINUES TO STEADILY BUILD ACROSS THE CO/WY
   MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF
   MODERATE FLOW AMIDST UPPER RIDGE. WITH TIME...STORMS APPEAR LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SD/WESTERN NEB BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD
   INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AS STRONG INSOLATION AND GENERAL MAINTENENCE OF
   LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
   1000-1250 J/KG MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ALTHOUGH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE
   AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   ADEQUATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD
   BE PREDOMINANT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
   INITIALLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALSO DEVELOPING LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING VIA COLD POOLS /GIVEN LARGE T-TD
   SPREADS/ AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE MCS CLUSTERS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
   
   43970485 44140405 42450174 41000215 40630410 42670480

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...
   
   VALID 211939Z - 212045Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF CURRENT
   STORM CLUSTER...WITH POTENTIAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT/BOW ECHO DURING THE NEXT HOUR.  AREAS WEST OF THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY BE DROPPED FROM CURRENT WATCH GIVEN CONVECTIVE
   STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS. AREAS EAST OF THE WATCH TO
   THE SC/SERN NC COAST WILL NEED ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE/EVOLVE
   QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY HAS A
   HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL...WITH LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY
   INDICATING OTHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THIS BROKEN
   CLUSTER OF STORMS ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW DURING THE NEXT 1-1.5
   HOURS. STRONG HEATING AND LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
   ACTIVITY SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
   INTO THE CENTRAL SC...INCLUDING THE CAE AREA... AROUND 2030Z.  THIS
   IS RECENTLY EVIDENCED BY INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OVER THE
   PAST HALF-HOUR.
   
   EXTRAPOLATION USING CURRENT MOTION OF 290/45KT PLACES LEADING
   ACTIVITY EAST OF WW BY 2130Z.  WITH PREVAILING WLY SURFACE
   WINDS...SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEARER THE COAST AND ALLOW
   TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90F ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN NC AHEAD OF
   THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN DEGREE OF HEATING AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE
   NERN SC/SERN NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.  THUS...WW WILL BE NEEDED
   IN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..EVANS.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   33028108 33548198 34338242 35098173 35047988 34867833
   34497771 33827786 32947888 32857992

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN MA/CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211944Z - 212115Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
   EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
   GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT AREAL EXTENT
   OF THE SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SLOT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
   STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY NEWD TO THE
   BERKSHIRES OF WRN MA. WHILE AIR MASS IN THIS ZONE WAS ONLY WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE... STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE VIGOROUS UPRIGHT
   CONVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
   SEVERE LEVELS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE
   STORMS DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
   WRN MA/NWRN CT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...
   
   42587191 41547323 41167413 41367462 41907411 42657305

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS....NERN OK...SWRN MO...NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211949Z - 212145Z
   
   THE PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION APPEAR TO
   BE IMPROVING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS OF
   MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
   THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   WARM/MOIST AIR MASS FROM OK/KS EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR WAS
   CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
   AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
   VIGOROUS NERN U.S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SETTLING SWD INTO SWRN
   MO...BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS KS
   WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND MID LEVEL MCV ARE DISRUPTING LOW LEVEL
   FLOW/THERMAL FIELD. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING AND
   LIFT/CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING MCV AND
   DIURNAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE REGION LIES BENEATH
   THE SRN EDGE OF MODEST /30KT/ WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WEAK LOW LEVEL
   TURNING AND FLOW ARE RESULTING IN ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
   BASED ON SGF VWP AND RAOB DATA. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS FORM ACROSS THE AREA
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
   
   36379473 36559544 36639659 37579665 37789469 37399174
   36049174

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212009Z - 212215Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST
   WY/SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE
   HAIL...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS STORMS BUILDING
   ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE BIGHORNS IN NORTHEAST WY...WITH ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY. WARM AND MOIST /UPPER
   40S TO LOWER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS/ NATURE OF AMBIENT AIRMASS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST MT AND FAR NORTHEAST WY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS /AIDED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
   LEVEL FLOW/...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...
   
   45020442 43670443 44420781 45141017 46210927 46080683
   45580494

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS/AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212012Z - 212145Z
   
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
   ZONE ORIENTED GENERALLY WEST TO EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO EXTREME
   NERN AL/NWRN GA. PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY EAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP WAS INDICATING THICKENING CU FIELD
   ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WRN TN. COMBINATION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AREA...AND STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING
   INHIBITION. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
   STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ESEWD
   FROM MO BOOTHEEL THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN
   INCREASING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. WNWLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SPREADING
   EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   34638694 34908820 35218991 36128954 35998844 35828720
   35638640 34908548 34628565 34398606

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212035Z - 212230Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS AND PORTIONS
   OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 2030Z...STRONG STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO
   BETWEEN BURLINGTON-LA JUNTA TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD...AS WELL AS THE FAR
   NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE NORTH OF DALHART. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
   OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
   IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...
   MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL
   STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO
   EPISODIC LARGE HAIL...INVERTED-V PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE
   DCAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F WILL
   SUPPORT STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. OVERALL ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
   
   37190102 35260125 35450259 38290317 39300279 38980163
   38420108

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 220021Z - 220215Z
   
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND WESTERN KS THIS EVENING...WITH CONTINUED
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.
   
   AT 0015Z...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM FAR NORTHEAST CO
   INTO SOUTHWEST NEB NEAR MCCOOK AND FAR NORTHWEST KS NEAR GOODLAND.
   ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL
   KS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
   EVENING WITH AT LEAST AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   GIVEN RECENT TRENDS NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO CONJUNCTION...SUSTAINABILITY
   WILL BE ENHANCED IF STORMS CONGLOMERATE/ORGANIZE A MESOSCALE COLD
   POOL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN PRESENCE OF WARM/MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. GIVEN THIS
   SCENARIO...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PER LATEST RUC
   GUIDANCE WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KS.
   
   RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER IS INDICATIVE OF AROUND 35 KTS OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE RELATIVELY
   ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS. IN SPITE OF STRONG AFTERNOON
   MIXING...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS HELD/MODESTLY INCREASED FROM
   CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST KS...SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG OR GREATER IN THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR PER 00Z
   OBSERVED RAOBS FROM DODGE CITY/NORTH PLATTE. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE
   THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
   OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO
   PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   40030219 40800149 40840014 40059916 38859901 38639947
   38570100 38900206

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN-SRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...NWRN GA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...
   
   VALID 220028Z - 220230Z
   
   CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
   WRN PORTIONS WW.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH NARROW
   CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG...TOWARD CHA AREA AND NWRN GA.
   THIS PROJECTED PATH IS ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC
   ZONE ANALYZED FROM SRN SC TO NWRN AR.  THIS AREA IS ALONG SRN EDGE
   OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...WITH 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
   50-100 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH.  SFC-BASED BUOYANCY GRADUALLY SHOULD
   DIMINISH WITH TIME AND DIABATIC COOLING AT GROUND LEVEL...THOUGH
   EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC FOR
   SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN SUPPORT OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  ANY
   ACTIVITY MOVING S OF WW SHOULD QUICKLY ENTER LESS FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER CINH...SMALLER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR....BASED ON MODIFIED BHM RAOB AND
   RUC SOUNDINGS S OF MID TN.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693
   35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628
   34618698 34798788 35258974

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MID TN...SERN TN...EXTREME NRN
   AL...NWRN GA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...
   
   VALID 220231Z - 220330Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PAST SCHEDULED 3Z WW EXPIRATION
   AND LOCAL EXTENSION OPTION EXISTS FOR A FEW COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR
   TWO.  ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...HOWEVER.
   
   NARROW 50-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MLCAPES -- ABOVE 1500
   J/KG -- WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AHEAD OF COMPLEX FROM
   NERN AL ACROSS NRN GA...BEFORE DIABATIC SFC COOLING BEGINS TO
   ELEVATE BASE OF LIFTED PARCELS AGL.  SFC ANALYSIS...MODIFIED BHM/FFC
   RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS BECOMES SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER
   AND MORE STABLE WITH SRN EXTENT INTO GA/AL.  THAT PORTION OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
   ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS N OF MAIN LINE IN MID/ERN TN -- ELEVATED
   ATOP OUTFLOW POOL -- MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
   ORGANIZATION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED IN PAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DO SO AS INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE...IN ENVIRONMENT
   OF MRGL VERTICAL SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693
   35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628
   34618698 34798788 35258974

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN AND W-CENTRAL KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 220342Z - 220545Z
   
   CLUSTER OF STG-SVR TSTMS OVER NWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
   ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN-CENTRAL KS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCNL HAIL
   AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  AREA WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT WW
   NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   MOST FAVORED TRACK FOR MCS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN LOW LEVEL MOIST
   AXIS AND NRN PORTION OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE.  LATEST SFC...925 AND 850 MB CHARTS
   SHOWED THIS AXIS NEARLY COLOCATED AT THOSE LEVELS ALONG LINE FROM
   SGF...HUT...40 ESE GLD.  DIFFUSE SFC FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM
   NEAR HLC ESEWD TOWARD S-CENTRAL MO.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM WILL
   SUPPORT MUCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG IN PRESTORM AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL/NWRN KS THROUGH 6Z.  ALTHOUGH SBCINH IS STRONG AT OVER 200
   J/KG IN MOST AREAS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGH THAT LAYER
   INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
   INITIALLY 30-35 KT SELY LLJ IS FCST TO VEER FROM SELY TOWARD SLY
   DIRECTION AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER 6Z.  EXPECT STORM-RELATIVE
   INFLOWS 30-50 KT BEFORE 6Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY REMAINING
   CONVECTION THEREAFTER TO PROPAGATE MORE TOWARD SLY OR EVEN SWLY
   DIRECTION.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION MAY CONTINUE ATOP
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN KS...WHICH
   IN TURN MAY FURTHER DRIVE OUTFLOW AIR MASS SSEWD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   39120199 39230138 39520083 39900046 39149782 38479964
   38180209

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN OK/NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221559Z - 221800Z
   
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF MCV SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AIRMASS HEATS/DESTABILIZES.  WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL ORGANIZED/ARCING LINE OF
   CONVECTION OVER S CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED MCV.  DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
   WILL YIELD A MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER...MORNING
   VAD/PROFILER DATA CONFIRMS MODEL PFC DEPICTION OF VERY WEAK
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   
   DESPITE THIS...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE INVOF
   MCV.  GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP...EXPECT
   STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/BRIEFLY DAMAGING
   WINDS WITHIN A CONFINED CORRIDOR ORIENTED WNW-ESE AHEAD OF THE
   FORECAST TRACK OF THE MCV.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   38529716 38269508 37489295 35979233 35529342 36029600
   37059838

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND ERN GA/WRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221830Z - 222030Z
   
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN
   GA AND ADJACENT WRN SC.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CU FIELD EVOLUTION
   ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN GA SEWD
   ACROSS SRN SC...WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES.  THIS
   REGION LIES BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT --
   ROUGHLY ALONG THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT.  CLOUDS/SHOWERS CONTINUE
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN AL/NWRN GA AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER FEATURE.  AS
   ASSOCIATED AREA OF LARGE-SCALE UVV SPREADS ACROSS DESTABILIZING
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   FROM WITHIN AGITATED CU FIELD NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN GA -- WITH
   ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.  COULD STORMS
   ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CLUSTER INVOF FRONT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS -- COULD
   EVOLVE SHIFT SEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   34448311 33878109 32588132 32868340 33818481 34588394

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN CO/NORTH CENTRAL NM AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
   CENTRAL WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221840Z - 222045Z
   
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS WESTERN CO AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
   NM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD
   OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS...WITH A STRONG MID
   LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
   COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AMPLE CLOUD
   BREAKS/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON -- MUCAPES OF 1500 J/KG -- AND A LIKELY
   UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
   TREND MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST CO/SOUTHWEST WY
   GIVEN COOLING CLOUD TOPS/LIGHTNING INCREASE.
   
   THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG
   SPEED SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE
   HAIL...A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
   EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH
   ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...
   
   41240946 42640859 40880677 38720610 37310535 36340497
   35880555 35990678 36400753 37110820 39060878

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221959Z - 222200Z
   
   IT APPEARS THAT STRONG WIND GUST/PERHAPS LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY
   SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM FRONT
   RANGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   STRONG MEASURED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 1-2
   HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL CO AND NORTH CENTRAL NM WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 50 KTS HAVE
   BEEN OBSERVED AT TAOS NM/ALAMOSA CO. EVEN THOUGH THE PLAINS ARE
   STILL RELATIVELY STABLE...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE/FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY SUPPORT A
   SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING INTO AT LEAST THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. IT STORMS CAN SURVIVE INTO EASTERN NM...40-50 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   38540483 38890433 38300345 36700322 35110347 33560397
   33790485 35050534 36360521

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375...
   
   VALID 222031Z - 222200Z
   
   STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR WRN EDGE OF WW...WITH SOME INCREASE
   IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. 
   
   STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND SERN KS...WITHIN
   AIRMASS WHICH HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  SHEAR -- THOUGH
   RELATIVELY WEAK -- CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIMITED ORGANIZATION GIVEN
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. EXPECT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TO CONTINUE
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AND NEAR WW.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   38219695 37749366 36389363 36809706