Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Approaching the Leewards latitude...
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 15.7N 50.2W T5.0/5.0 BILL

[Gustywind]

BILL EYE....

[Gustywind]

Frenh Guyana has requiered too an yellow alert for a risk of rough sea at 8AM...given Meteo-France. That's mean to summarize 4 areas (French Guyana, Martinica, Guadeloupe, Northern Leewards) under an yellow alert.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of Stormcarib.com...always monitoring very closely BIG BABY BILL.
18 Aug 2009 12:43:20 -0000 - Getting too close for comfort Bill


Good morning,

Hurricane Bill, currently 970 miles east of the Virgin Islands, continues to strengthen as he churns towards the Northern Antilles and is expected to become a major hurricane sometime in the next 36 hours or so. Warmer SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) of 28-29 Celsius or 82-84 degrees, plenty of moist air ahead due to Ana's quick passage, and light wind shear will all contribute to probable rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. First, though, it has to finish an eyewall recycle phase.

Current model forecasts still turn Bill to the west northwest and eventually northwest with only 2 of those models disagreeing on general track. A trough of low pressure is supposed to be strong enough to influence this turn on Bill after 50W, well in advance of the islands thus bringing the center of Cat 3 or 4 Hurricane Bill to nearly 360 miles to the northeast of St. Thomas by around 6 pm Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend currently out 150 miles and even if they extend 200 miles on Thursday, the only effects felt in the Northern Antilles, other than a huge sigh of relief, will be swells.

Until this system is above 18N and before 62W, do not let your guard down. Weather is not an exact sceince and while we do know alot about tropical systems, theres alot we don't know. Worst case sceanrio is this defies the forecast and does not turn. Precious little time would be left for preparations and the ramifications, huge.

The remnants of Ana still have another shot at regeneration over the next few days after getting ripped apart by the mountainous terrain over PR and the DR although ti wasn't that strong to begin with.

Dave

[FireBird]

Hi Gustywind, I saw that post by Dave on Stormcarib and appreciated his honesty in admitting that meteorology is an inexact science. As someone put it before - prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Here in Trinidad, we have been alerted to the possible increase in thunderstorm activity, esp. for Wednesday and Thursday. We will be on code orange for those 2 days.
We have had major flood damage in the past week and a half, with 3 tornadoes, 1 direct death, 1 related death, and losses of many cars. People are still cleaning up their homes, and the emergency responders have been working apace to restore a state of normalcy.

[Gustywind]

Hi Gustywind, I saw that post by Dave on Stormcarib and appreciated his honesty in admitting that meteorology is an inexact science. As someone put it before - prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Here in Trinidad, we have been alerted to the possible increase in thunderstorm activity, esp. for Wednesday and Thursday. We will be on code orange for those 2 days.
We have had major flood damage in the past week and a half, with 3 tornadoes, 1 direct death, 1 related death, and losses of many cars. People are still cleaning up their homes, and the emergency responders have been working apace to restore a state of normalcy.

Tkanks Firebird, agree with you. We should not let our guard down in the islands...let's continue to monitor Bill and all the suspects areas. Speaking about suspects areas, seems that a new wave emerging from Africa is showing this morning a nice sat appearence. Whereas, we have time to see what really could happens during the next couple of days... We're must concerned by BIG BILL and his indirects effects (rough sea: waves, swell).

Here's the possible new guest?

[Gustywind]

Hey hey... seems that's Bill is moving a bit west in the last two frames ...It is me or my eyes are deceiving me my carib friends ? I tkink that it's "just" a jog or a wobble
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[msbee]

that looks like it to me too.
hope our eyes are deceiving us.

[Gustywind]

that looks like it to me too.
hope our eyes are deceiving us.

Humm msbee you see that too... yeah but if that trends continues that could be very suspect...

[knotimpaired]

that looks like it to me too.
hope our eyes are deceiving us.

All I can say is that I pray to God not or we are in for big trouble!

[Gustywind]

that looks like it to me too.
hope our eyes are deceiving us.

All I can say is that I pray to God not or we are in for big trouble!

Agree with you 100%, let's hope...but for sure that's the type of wobble that all carib islanders don't want to see amplifies. Let's keep our fingers crossed my friend.

[Gustywind]

Big Baby slowly beginning its approach near the Leewards islands...heathly system.


Huge size...is really an euphemisma. Hopefully for the islands (if it misses us, should it verifies first ), looks like the southern quadrant is a just a bit "less "developped than the northern; pretty structured.





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 12W_sm.gif

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181449
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1140 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED
TO INVESTIGATE BILL THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 51.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI


000
WTNT23 KNHC 181449
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 55.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 57.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 60.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 31.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI








000
WTNT43 KNHC 181500
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH
OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE EYE OF BILL IS
QUITE LARGE...MEASURING ABOUT 35-40 NM IN DIAMETER. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
REMNANTS OF ANA HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY INTO BILL THIS AFTERNOON.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. BILL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO DURING THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAY 4 AND 5. THE MODELS
RESPOND BY TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR.
AS BEFORE...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE UKMET AND HWRF ARE ON THE LEFT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD...BUT REMAINS
TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BILL IS IN A CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND TOPS OUT AT 110 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING AT
THAT TIME.

THE WIND RADII WERE EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.9N 51.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 55.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 19.6N 57.7W 110 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 60.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 25.9N 64.7W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 31.5N 67.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[FireBird]

Hey guys, I'm so nervous about this path, and what might happen if Bill stays more west than forecast. I know that you - my friends here on Storm2K - are prepared, and I hope that your interest and concern will spread to those around you so that if the worst happens, more persons would have made an informed choice to be safe. For a certainty, the saying that "Ignorance is bliss" does not apply to a hurricane like Bill.....
We wait with bated breath.....

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 181507
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHILE OVER
LAND AREAS REMAINED DRY. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM EAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS DRY AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO ENTER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO BLOW FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

AT 11 AM AST...HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED SOME 705 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. BILL WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
16 MPH. BILL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEST NORTHWEST TRACK
TODAY THEN MORE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. AS OF 11 AM AST...BILL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD KEEP MONITORING BILL FUTURE TRACK FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR
THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$

[Gustywind]

The main story deals with BIG BABY BILL , while another tropical wave coming off Africa is related in this TWD...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL AT 18/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 15.9N 51.2W...
OR ABOUT 705 MILES/1140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES/65 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES/
280 KM. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BILL MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE BILL THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...AND
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N54W 9N53W 10N52W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
31W AND 38W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 73W/74W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N IS THE REMNANT OF ANA THAT DISSIPATED YESTERDAY.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WITH THIS WAVE...MOST RECENTLY
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...AND NOW MOVING TOWARD JAMAICA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME PERIODS OF ALTERNATE DEVELOPMENT AND WEAKENING
OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE OVERALL LARGER AREA.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST FROM 12N TO 13N ALONG 16W...TO 10N28W TO
10N44W 10N53W TO 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND
18W POSSIBLY ACCOMPANY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. DISORGANIZED AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM HURRICANE BILL
FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W...THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 69W...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N80W JUST SOUTH OF CUBA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N/17N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N/26N BETWEEN
74W AND 86W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
FROM COASTAL CUBA NEAR 21N TO 24N IN THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 74W/75W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
TO LAKE PLACID FLORIDA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W...
AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAREDO TEXAS
THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH LINE TO A 20N101W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH
OF ACAPULCO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN
94W AND 96W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N82W 12N75W
14N69W TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...ABOUT 200 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL IS NEAR 32N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN
120 NM TO 150 NM OF THE CENTER. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N48W.
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 27N21W TO 23N23W...TO 22N30W 18N37W AND
15N40W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED
SOUTHWARD...FROM A 32N22W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N23W 26N27W...
AND EVENTUALLY BLENDING WITH THE 32N13W 15N40W TOWARD 22N30W.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...VERY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HELPED TO
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BRUSH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AHEAD OF HURRICANE
BILL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS ROUGHLY 420 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN ON THURSDAY. WHILE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF BILL IN BANDS OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN A DEEP SURGE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WITH THE FOLLOWING TROPICAL WAVE.

[msbee]

420 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN ON THURSDAY?

I like the sound of that!

[cycloneye]

420 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN ON THURSDAY?

I like the sound of that!

That is around 250 miles from where you are,not bad.But until it clears completly the latitud of the islands,we still have to watch the track and see if it gets closer than expected.

[msbee]

I know, Luis. I can't wait to see that he is at 20 degrees North.

[caribepr]

I spent the afternoon, well, the whole day, trying to make things work for the good of my friend's boat and hoped by all the time I wasted I'd come home to find that we knew SOMETHING for more sure.

Seems not the case.

Have to add this....after spreading the word about the ULL that was holding back the curve, I screwed up the WHOLE MANGROVE GANG of people trying to get their boats out because the guy at the head (last in first out and vice versa) decided I might have a point and wouldn't move his tri. So no one can get out. La la. I figure they will either be thanking him later or cursing him but better to prepare for the worst and we STILL DON'T KNOW. Or do we?