BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO
WILL OVERSPREAD THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND REACH
EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT...PLEASE REFER FOR DETAILS.
AS GONZALO APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT MANLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO RICO AND SAINT
CROIX...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAIN BANDS.
GONZALO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
AS LOCAL ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEPARTING GONZALO AND A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...EXPECT
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED GONZALO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WX CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DETERIORATING ACROSS
TNCM/TKPK...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS GONZALO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS GONZALO MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BETWEEN EASTERN PR
AND THE NORTHERLY LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15-25 KT INCREASING UP TO 40 KT TONIGHT MAINLY
OVER TJSJ/TIST/TISX WITH HIGHER SURFACE GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...AS GONZALO APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO RICO AND
SAINT CROIX...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAIN BANDS. SEAS
UP TO 18 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 89 / 90 90 50 50
STT 77 87 79 88 / 90 90 60 60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO
WILL OVERSPREAD THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND REACH
EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT...PLEASE REFER FOR DETAILS.
AS GONZALO APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT MANLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO RICO AND SAINT
CROIX...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAIN BANDS.
GONZALO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
AS LOCAL ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEPARTING GONZALO AND A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...EXPECT
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED GONZALO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WX CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DETERIORATING ACROSS
TNCM/TKPK...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS GONZALO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS GONZALO MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BETWEEN EASTERN PR
AND THE NORTHERLY LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15-25 KT INCREASING UP TO 40 KT TONIGHT MAINLY
OVER TJSJ/TIST/TISX WITH HIGHER SURFACE GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...AS GONZALO APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO RICO AND
SAINT CROIX...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAIN BANDS. SEAS
UP TO 18 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 89 / 90 90 50 50
STT 77 87 79 88 / 90 90 60 60
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Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
st maarten currently getting hit hard.. dangerous conditions.
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
SxmDCOMM - HURRICANE ADVISORY UPDATE - ODM: Country under a Hurricane Warning; Gonzalo Now a Category 1 Hurricane and continues to strengthen; Schools to remain closed Tuesday;
From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 17:36:43 -0400
News Release
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net or dcomm at sintmaartengov.org; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org
For Immediate Release: Monday, October 13, 2014/N174-5.30PM
ODM: Country under a Hurricane Warning; Gonzalo Now a Category 1 Hurricane and continues to strengthen; Schools to remain closed Tuesday;
GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) officially announces that Gonzalo is now a category 1 Hurricane located at 5.00PM 20 miles south east of Sint Maarten.
Residents should remain indoors until the hurricane clears the island.
The country is under a Hurricane Warning. Weather conditions have deteriorated. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread through the area tonight.
Schools are to remain closed on Tuesday. Ministry VROMI/Public Works after carrying out an assessment when weather conditions subside will then plan clean-up operations to clear any debris on the public road network.
Business owners/operators should use their discretion on Tuesday morning after assessing their business whether staff should report to work. Government employees are expected to report to work on Tuesday.
Hurricane Gonzalo at 5.00PM has 75 mile per hour winds with higher gusts, and further strengthening is forecasted during the next 48 hours. Gonzalo could become a major hurricane by Wednesday when it is located over the open Atlantic Ocean and is no longer a threat to the country.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles per hour; and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
For weather updates visit the site of MDS at: http://www.meteosxm.com
ODM will continue to monitor the progress of the storm. Additional updates will be provided.
# # #
Roddy Heyliger (Email/Blackberry: roddyheyliger at gmail.com; roddy.heyliger at sintmaartengov.org; Cells: +1 721 520-4217, 581-6323)
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten
Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE
Publisher of: http://www.soualiganewsday.com
Sint Maarten Online Newsday Source
From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 17:36:43 -0400
News Release
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtmlDepartment of Communication (DCOMM), Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net or dcomm at sintmaartengov.org; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org
For Immediate Release: Monday, October 13, 2014/N174-5.30PM
ODM: Country under a Hurricane Warning; Gonzalo Now a Category 1 Hurricane and continues to strengthen; Schools to remain closed Tuesday;
GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) officially announces that Gonzalo is now a category 1 Hurricane located at 5.00PM 20 miles south east of Sint Maarten.
Residents should remain indoors until the hurricane clears the island.
The country is under a Hurricane Warning. Weather conditions have deteriorated. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread through the area tonight.
Schools are to remain closed on Tuesday. Ministry VROMI/Public Works after carrying out an assessment when weather conditions subside will then plan clean-up operations to clear any debris on the public road network.
Business owners/operators should use their discretion on Tuesday morning after assessing their business whether staff should report to work. Government employees are expected to report to work on Tuesday.
Hurricane Gonzalo at 5.00PM has 75 mile per hour winds with higher gusts, and further strengthening is forecasted during the next 48 hours. Gonzalo could become a major hurricane by Wednesday when it is located over the open Atlantic Ocean and is no longer a threat to the country.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles per hour; and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
For weather updates visit the site of MDS at: http://www.meteosxm.com
ODM will continue to monitor the progress of the storm. Additional updates will be provided.
# # #
Roddy Heyliger (Email/Blackberry: roddyheyliger at gmail.com; roddy.heyliger at sintmaartengov.org; Cells: +1 721 520-4217, 581-6323)
Department of Communication (DCOMM), Sint Maarten
Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE
Publisher of: http://www.soualiganewsday.com
Sint Maarten Online Newsday Source
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here is the latest weather forecast from Meteo-France Guadeloupe concerning the Northern Leewards Islands. I have made the translation french to english. Keeping our fingers crossed. Be safe all my friends Msbee, adam0983...
Regards
Gustywind
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf (french version)
Bulletin of monitoring VIGILANCE No. 6
for the Northern Islands: Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy
Monday, October 13, 2014 at 17 h 51 legal 21:51 UTC
Episode No. 10 - IN
Level of vigilance: PURPLE
Danger: HURRICANE
Validity:
Start of event: current
Estimated end: Tuesday 13/10/14 at 6AM
Current situation:
Category 1 GONZALO Hurricane
Estimated 13-10 position-2014 at 21 UTC: 17.9 N 62.9 W - Distance from Saint - Martin at the center of
the phenomenon: 27 km - Saint-Barthélemy: 11 km
Mouvement: Northwest 305 degrees to 7 km/h - pressure at the centre: 984 hPa
Winds max on 1 min: 65 knots gusting wind max: 80 knots
Forecasts:
"Gonzalo" comes to the stage of hurricane of category 1, and its center is located at 5 p.m.
on Saint Barthélemy, who suffered for the moment the strongest winds. On this island, the
winds will soon turn West then South sector. It will continue to blow between 80 and 100
kph average wind, 100 to 130 km/h in gusts till 9 or 10 PM before weakening
gradually during the night.
On St. Martin, the winds will blow at 100/120 km/h in average wind, 130-150 km/h in gusts.
Improvement occur in middle of night.
The bulk of the rain is in the northern part of the hurricane. Nevertheless the stormy rain
may still persist throughout the next night.
Very rough seas with waves reacing 4.5-6 meters on the exposed coast. Depreciation being tonight.
Observed data:
At ST Barth:
At 12AM and 1PM, the wind was oriented to the East with gusts at 115 km/h.
At 2PM the gusts reached 122 km/h.
Between 4 and 5 PM, 204 km/h
At Sint Marteen:
Between 4 and 5 PM, 120 km/h
Next newsletter: Monday, October 13 at 8 PM.
INDIVIDUAL RECOMMENDED BEHAVIOUR MEASURES BY THE PREFECTURE:
VIGILANCE PURPLE CYCLONE
VMI1: Stay tuned to the weather broadcast on television and radio, meet the
instructions of the authorities;
VMI2: Stay away and not exit under any PRETEXT;
VMI3: Away openings to prevent glass in case of breakage projections;
VMI4: Take refuge if possible in the safest part of your home;
VMI5: Prepare to undergo cuts electricity and potable water;
VMI6: Use the telephone only in the event of absolute necessity;
VMI7: In any situation, remain calm and not to panic;
VMI8: Always wait instructions broadcast on radios before changing the posture.
VMI9: It is forbidden to travel on foot or by car under penalty of sanctions, even if the
relief operations can intervene promptly;
VMI10: Do not use fire flame;
VMI11: Turn off power.
Regards
Gustywind
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf (french version)Bulletin of monitoring VIGILANCE No. 6
for the Northern Islands: Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy
Monday, October 13, 2014 at 17 h 51 legal 21:51 UTC
Episode No. 10 - IN
Level of vigilance: PURPLE
Danger: HURRICANE
Validity:
Start of event: current
Estimated end: Tuesday 13/10/14 at 6AM
Current situation:
Category 1 GONZALO Hurricane
Estimated 13-10 position-2014 at 21 UTC: 17.9 N 62.9 W - Distance from Saint - Martin at the center of
the phenomenon: 27 km - Saint-Barthélemy: 11 km
Mouvement: Northwest 305 degrees to 7 km/h - pressure at the centre: 984 hPa
Winds max on 1 min: 65 knots gusting wind max: 80 knots
Forecasts:
"Gonzalo" comes to the stage of hurricane of category 1, and its center is located at 5 p.m.
on Saint Barthélemy, who suffered for the moment the strongest winds. On this island, the
winds will soon turn West then South sector. It will continue to blow between 80 and 100
kph average wind, 100 to 130 km/h in gusts till 9 or 10 PM before weakening
gradually during the night.
On St. Martin, the winds will blow at 100/120 km/h in average wind, 130-150 km/h in gusts.
Improvement occur in middle of night.
The bulk of the rain is in the northern part of the hurricane. Nevertheless the stormy rain
may still persist throughout the next night.
Very rough seas with waves reacing 4.5-6 meters on the exposed coast. Depreciation being tonight.
Observed data:
At ST Barth:
At 12AM and 1PM, the wind was oriented to the East with gusts at 115 km/h.
At 2PM the gusts reached 122 km/h.
Between 4 and 5 PM, 204 km/h
At Sint Marteen:
Between 4 and 5 PM, 120 km/h
Next newsletter: Monday, October 13 at 8 PM.
INDIVIDUAL RECOMMENDED BEHAVIOUR MEASURES BY THE PREFECTURE:
VIGILANCE PURPLE CYCLONE
VMI1: Stay tuned to the weather broadcast on television and radio, meet the
instructions of the authorities;
VMI2: Stay away and not exit under any PRETEXT;
VMI3: Away openings to prevent glass in case of breakage projections;
VMI4: Take refuge if possible in the safest part of your home;
VMI5: Prepare to undergo cuts electricity and potable water;
VMI6: Use the telephone only in the event of absolute necessity;
VMI7: In any situation, remain calm and not to panic;
VMI8: Always wait instructions broadcast on radios before changing the posture.
VMI9: It is forbidden to travel on foot or by car under penalty of sanctions, even if the
relief operations can intervene promptly;
VMI10: Do not use fire flame;
VMI11: Turn off power.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
...GONZALO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NEAR ANGUILLA AND ST. MARTIN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
OCEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39
MPH...63 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
...GONZALO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NEAR ANGUILLA AND ST. MARTIN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
OCEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39
MPH...63 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF THE NOW HURRICANE GONZALO IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
62.9W AT 13/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF ST MARTIN...OR ABOUT
750 NM E OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS MORE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 61W-65W. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF THE NOW HURRICANE GONZALO IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
62.9W AT 13/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF ST MARTIN...OR ABOUT
750 NM E OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS MORE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 61W-65W. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.
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Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
the worst is over I think. I feel like I have been through a war.. the island really took a beating.
I think tomorrow we will find a lot of damage.
this hit us hard.
it felt like a cat 2 instead of cat 1..
I think tomorrow we will find a lot of damage.
this hit us hard.
it felt like a cat 2 instead of cat 1..
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Too many hurricanes to remember
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
msbee wrote:the worst is over I think. I feel like I have been through a war.. the island really took a beating.
I think tomorrow we will find a lot of damage.
this hit us hard.
it felt like a cat 2 instead of cat 1..
The eye went slowly over that location and the effects lasted longer. Keep us informed.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GONZALO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
...GONZALO EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...
.NEW INFORMATION...
POSITION AND EXPECTATIONS.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4N...LONGITUDE 63.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 109 MILES EAST
OF SAINT THOMAS USVI. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 80 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF RAIN
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE RAIN FROM THESE BANDS MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
AS HURRICANE GONZALO APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX...WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN SQUALLY WEATHER AND RAIN BANDS. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF HURRICANE GONZALO
WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FEET.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. AS HURRICANE GONZALO PASSES
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECASTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTEN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ST.
CROIX HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTEN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ST.
CROIX HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
A very strong 7.4 earthquake occurred tonight in El Salvador.
There are reports of 1 persone killed and several minor damages in eastern El Salvador.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116858
There are reports of 1 persone killed and several minor damages in eastern El Salvador.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=116858
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT33 KNHC 140854
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
...GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS....
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
WTNT33 KNHC 140854
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
...GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS....
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 64.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: GONZALO:Observations/Local NWS/Gov info/ for NE Carib
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145296
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAND AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GONZALO SHOWED SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO
SO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
CLEARLY DEPICTED THE CENTER CORE OF THE HURRICANE ENTERING AND
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN BANDS SPIRALING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BUT
WILL STILL BRING PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TODAY. DUE TO PRESENT
MOVEMENT OF GONZALO AND THE OVERALL SCENARIO...EXPECTATIONS FOR
RAINFALL HAVE NOW BEEN LOWERED TO 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 6 INCHES MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO COMBINED WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY... IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE SO FAR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TAF SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR TNCM/TKPK BUT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST MAINLY UNTIL 14/16Z. WINDS OVER PR/USVI BELOW
FL150 FROM NORTH NORTHEAST AT 18-30 KNOTS BECOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 14-25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND OVER TNCM/TKPK BELOW FL150 FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 25-40 KNOTS BECOMING
FROM THE SOUTH AT 20-30 KNOTS LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE GONZALO...A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL NOON AST TODAY FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREAFTER...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. SEAS
AT BUOY 41043 HAD RISEN TO 12-14 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD
RETURN TO LESS THAN 7 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 78 / 70 40 40 10
STT 87 78 88 79 / 70 60 60 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAND AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...GONZALO SHOWED SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO
SO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
CLEARLY DEPICTED THE CENTER CORE OF THE HURRICANE ENTERING AND
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN BANDS SPIRALING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND REACHING PARTS OF THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BUT
WILL STILL BRING PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TODAY. DUE TO PRESENT
MOVEMENT OF GONZALO AND THE OVERALL SCENARIO...EXPECTATIONS FOR
RAINFALL HAVE NOW BEEN LOWERED TO 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 6 INCHES MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO COMBINED WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY... IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE SO FAR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TAF SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR TNCM/TKPK BUT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST MAINLY UNTIL 14/16Z. WINDS OVER PR/USVI BELOW
FL150 FROM NORTH NORTHEAST AT 18-30 KNOTS BECOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 14-25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND OVER TNCM/TKPK BELOW FL150 FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 25-40 KNOTS BECOMING
FROM THE SOUTH AT 20-30 KNOTS LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE GONZALO...A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL NOON AST TODAY FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREAFTER...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. SEAS
AT BUOY 41043 HAD RISEN TO 12-14 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD
RETURN TO LESS THAN 7 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 78 / 70 40 40 10
STT 87 78 88 79 / 70 60 60 30
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Good news for Guadeloupe, back to green code meaning no threats in terms strong showers and tstorms 
!
The
is back and all is normal here. Guadeloupe have been spared by Gonzalo, thanks Lord. But i hope really that the Northern Leewards is not much impacted even seems that they have been hit hard 
.
Be courageous Msbee and all the Leewardians, things will improve, keep the faith!
Here are some datas of Gonzalo during its trip on Guadeloupe showing clearly that nothing bad happens on the butterfly island.
Source Meteo-France Guadeloupe: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf (french version).
Regards
Gustywind
Bulletin of tracking No. 17 for Guadeloupe
Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 05 56 AM, 09:56 UTC
Episode n ° 14-GD
Completed event
Level of vigilance: return to green
Current situation:
Hurricane "Gonzalo" has reached category 2 at 2 AM local while moving away from the Northern Islands.
Estimated 2014-10-14 09 UTC position (05 AM): 19.6 ° N and 64.4 ° W.
Distance from the center of the phenomenon: 470 km north-west of Guadeloupe.
Mouvement: Northwest, at 315 degrees at 20 km/h.
The central pressure: 974 hPa.
The lines of showers that wrap around the hurricane in a South stream don't represent a
particular danger for Guadeloupe. Yellow vigilance can therefore be lifted.
Data observed during the episode:
Monday morning, between 05AM and 06 AM, the wind blew at la Désirade at 76 km/h on average with a
gust at 93 km/h. Elsewhere, the gusts did not exceed 54 km/h.
Monday morning, between 03 AM and 09AM, the most significant rainfall reached 20 to
60 millimeters on the localities between Deshaies, Moule, Saint-François, Goyave and Saint-Claude.
There was for example over these 6 hours:
50.7 mm in Pointe-Noire Bellevue,
41.5 mm at Moule Montplaisir
37 mm at Moule Laureal,
31.5 mm at Goyave Christophe,
30 mm at Sainte-Anne Courcelles,
29.3 mm at Raizet Abymes.
!The
is back and all is normal here. Guadeloupe have been spared by Gonzalo, thanks Lord. But i hope really that the Northern Leewards is not much impacted even seems that they have been hit hard .Be courageous Msbee and all the Leewardians, things will improve, keep the faith!
Here are some datas of Gonzalo during its trip on Guadeloupe showing clearly that nothing bad happens on the butterfly island.
Source Meteo-France Guadeloupe: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf (french version).
Regards
Gustywind
Bulletin of tracking No. 17 for Guadeloupe
Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 05 56 AM, 09:56 UTC
Episode n ° 14-GD
Completed event
Level of vigilance: return to green
Current situation:
Hurricane "Gonzalo" has reached category 2 at 2 AM local while moving away from the Northern Islands.
Estimated 2014-10-14 09 UTC position (05 AM): 19.6 ° N and 64.4 ° W.
Distance from the center of the phenomenon: 470 km north-west of Guadeloupe.
Mouvement: Northwest, at 315 degrees at 20 km/h.
The central pressure: 974 hPa.
The lines of showers that wrap around the hurricane in a South stream don't represent a
particular danger for Guadeloupe. Yellow vigilance can therefore be lifted.
Data observed during the episode:
Monday morning, between 05AM and 06 AM, the wind blew at la Désirade at 76 km/h on average with a
gust at 93 km/h. Elsewhere, the gusts did not exceed 54 km/h.
Monday morning, between 03 AM and 09AM, the most significant rainfall reached 20 to
60 millimeters on the localities between Deshaies, Moule, Saint-François, Goyave and Saint-Claude.
There was for example over these 6 hours:
50.7 mm in Pointe-Noire Bellevue,
41.5 mm at Moule Montplaisir
37 mm at Moule Laureal,
31.5 mm at Goyave Christophe,
30 mm at Sainte-Anne Courcelles,
29.3 mm at Raizet Abymes.
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Breaking news
Very sad news for the Northern Leewards
Given our journalists of RCI, should be really confirmed during the next hours... it's not 3 people but looks like 16 people are missing in sea in both islands:(
We're waiting for a confirmation of this info, i will keep your informed if i've more.
Site of our local radio: http://www.rci.fm/Gonzalo-3-portes-disp ... _dvke2EK00
The latest news said that 16 are missing!
Very sad news for the Northern Leewards
Given our journalists of RCI, should be really confirmed during the next hours... it's not 3 people but looks like 16 people are missing in sea in both islands:(
We're waiting for a confirmation of this info, i will keep your informed if i've more.
Site of our local radio: http://www.rci.fm/Gonzalo-3-portes-disp ... _dvke2EK00
The latest news said that 16 are missing!
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here are some videos of TS Gonzalo hitting Antigua.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLGm6pUPbJk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWnAKMdWZDs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLGm6pUPbJk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWnAKMdWZDs
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
First videos of Gonzalo hitting the Northern Leewards Islands.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtMrHiLS5NQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuTNRztKWA8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtMrHiLS5NQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuTNRztKWA8
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here is the latest and full weather forecast from Meteo-France Guadeloupe for the Northern Leewards Islands.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf ( french version).
Grey code for the Northern Leewards Islands
INDIVIDUAL RECOMMENDED BEHAVIOUR MEASURES BY THE PREFECTURE:
VIGILANCE GREY HURRICANE
GMI1: To keep abreast of the situation of the consequences of the passage of the phenomenon on the island;
GMI2: Be careful when leaving the place where you were housed;
GMI3: Try a balance of the damage around your home while remaining very cautious:
(1) strengthen and repair your home without taking a risk;
(2) stay away from low points, rivers and steep slopes;
(3) clear the surroundings of your home and clearing the surrounding area carefully;
(4) do not touch the electric and telephone wires broken and fallen to the ground.
(5) assist neighbours and prevent relief in case of need;
GMI4: Does not interfere with rescue teams, and avoid unnecessary trips;
GMI5: Do not clutter the telephone network except emergency;
GMI6: Do not cross gullies or ditches flooded as well as the edges of watercourses.
GMI7: Check the quality of the water before consumption as well as the food from the refrigerator;
Monitoring VIGILANCE No. 10 bulletin
for the Northern Islands: Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy
Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 6AM:04, 10:04 UTC
Episode No. 10 - IN
Level of vigilance: grey
Danger: Hurricane
Validity:
Start of event: current.
Estimated end: Tuesday 14/10/14 to 5 PM
Current situation:
Category 2 GONZALO Hurricane
Position estimated 10-14-09 UTC 2014: 19.6 N 64.4 W - Distance from Saint - Martin at the centre of
the phenomenon: 220 km - Saint-Barthélemy: 253 km
Displacement: Northwest 315 degrees to 20 km/h - pressure at the center: 974 hPa
1 mn wind average: 95 knots gusting wind max: 115 knots
Forecasts:
Hurricane 'Gonzalo' now category 2, continues to move away to the Northwest and do not impact our islands.
Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy are out of the TS conditions since the middle of night conditions.
The wind from southwest and to the south is significantly attenuated between 30 and 50 km/h in average wind, and 50 to 70 km/h
in gusts. It falls down at 20 km/h on average by the evening.
Intense precipitation do not affect us. Nevertheless, showers and tstorms sometimes intensive, can still reach the two islands during the day.
The sea is depreciated, it remains strong with waves of 2 m 50 this morning. Depreciation shall continue during the day, with waves lowering around 1 m 50 in the evening.
Observed data:
Saint-Barthélemy (at the weather station):
Maximum winds between 3 PM and 7 PM, average wind at 122 km/h and gusts of 204 km/h
Between 01 AM and 3 AM, average wind 34 km/h, gusts 60 km/h.
Between 03 AM 04 AM, average wind 39 km/h, gusts 76 km/h.
Between 04 AM and 5 AM, average wind 37 km/h, gusts 56 km/h.
At Saint-Martin Grand - Case:
Between 6 PM and 7 PM, average wind 88 km/h, gusts 151 km/h.
No data available since 8 PM. Between 9 PM and 10 PM, average wind estimated at 130 km/h, gusts to
160 km/h.
Accumulation of rain in 3 hours (between 5 PM and 8 PM): 74 mm.
Sea: waves estimated at 4 meters 50-6 meters at the height of the episode between 5 PM and 11 PM.
Next bulletin: Tuesday, October 2 PM, 16 UTC.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf ( french version).Grey code for the Northern Leewards Islands
INDIVIDUAL RECOMMENDED BEHAVIOUR MEASURES BY THE PREFECTURE:
VIGILANCE GREY HURRICANE
GMI1: To keep abreast of the situation of the consequences of the passage of the phenomenon on the island;
GMI2: Be careful when leaving the place where you were housed;
GMI3: Try a balance of the damage around your home while remaining very cautious:
(1) strengthen and repair your home without taking a risk;
(2) stay away from low points, rivers and steep slopes;
(3) clear the surroundings of your home and clearing the surrounding area carefully;
(4) do not touch the electric and telephone wires broken and fallen to the ground.
(5) assist neighbours and prevent relief in case of need;
GMI4: Does not interfere with rescue teams, and avoid unnecessary trips;
GMI5: Do not clutter the telephone network except emergency;
GMI6: Do not cross gullies or ditches flooded as well as the edges of watercourses.
GMI7: Check the quality of the water before consumption as well as the food from the refrigerator;
Monitoring VIGILANCE No. 10 bulletin
for the Northern Islands: Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy
Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 6AM:04, 10:04 UTC
Episode No. 10 - IN
Level of vigilance: grey
Danger: Hurricane
Validity:
Start of event: current.
Estimated end: Tuesday 14/10/14 to 5 PM
Current situation:
Category 2 GONZALO Hurricane
Position estimated 10-14-09 UTC 2014: 19.6 N 64.4 W - Distance from Saint - Martin at the centre of
the phenomenon: 220 km - Saint-Barthélemy: 253 km
Displacement: Northwest 315 degrees to 20 km/h - pressure at the center: 974 hPa
1 mn wind average: 95 knots gusting wind max: 115 knots
Forecasts:
Hurricane 'Gonzalo' now category 2, continues to move away to the Northwest and do not impact our islands.
Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy are out of the TS conditions since the middle of night conditions.
The wind from southwest and to the south is significantly attenuated between 30 and 50 km/h in average wind, and 50 to 70 km/h
in gusts. It falls down at 20 km/h on average by the evening.
Intense precipitation do not affect us. Nevertheless, showers and tstorms sometimes intensive, can still reach the two islands during the day.
The sea is depreciated, it remains strong with waves of 2 m 50 this morning. Depreciation shall continue during the day, with waves lowering around 1 m 50 in the evening.
Observed data:
Saint-Barthélemy (at the weather station):
Maximum winds between 3 PM and 7 PM, average wind at 122 km/h and gusts of 204 km/h
Between 01 AM and 3 AM, average wind 34 km/h, gusts 60 km/h.
Between 03 AM 04 AM, average wind 39 km/h, gusts 76 km/h.
Between 04 AM and 5 AM, average wind 37 km/h, gusts 56 km/h.
At Saint-Martin Grand - Case:
Between 6 PM and 7 PM, average wind 88 km/h, gusts 151 km/h.
No data available since 8 PM. Between 9 PM and 10 PM, average wind estimated at 130 km/h, gusts to
160 km/h.
Accumulation of rain in 3 hours (between 5 PM and 8 PM): 74 mm.
Sea: waves estimated at 4 meters 50-6 meters at the height of the episode between 5 PM and 11 PM.
Next bulletin: Tuesday, October 2 PM, 16 UTC.
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