Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

First modeled freeze for peninsula Florida of the season, Euro has a huge trough as well.

[SFLcane]

First modeled freeze for peninsula Florida of the season, Euro has a huge trough as well.

https://i.postimg.cc/Jn5PbfYH/gfs-T2m-seus-38.png
https://i.postimg.cc/gkhFhJqx/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-us-fh144-216.gif

Wow!!

Fingers crossed

[gatorcane]

Wow the GFS not backing down second run in a row

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro has gone colder for 12/26 with lows in the mid 30s for the Tampa Bay with mid to upper 30s along the I-4 corridor. The GFS is about 5 degrees colder with upper 20s to lower 30s except mid 30s at the coast

[NDG]

As always, I never believe such extreme forecasted low temps for central FL by the models when they are past their 96-120 hr forecast range. Especially when the NAO is forecasted to be near neutral and PNA barely in the positive range.

[chaser1]

12Z Euro has gone colder for 12/26 with lows in the mid 30s for the Tampa Bay with mid to upper 30s along the I-4 corridor. The GFS is about 5 degrees colder with upper 20s to lower 30s except mid 30s at the coast

Have to say, we're seeing a pretty impressive progressive pattern across the CNOUS, and one that isn't leaving the southeast US under a secondary westerly flow that one would assume in a typical LaNina. That could well change but I keep saying that and we in Florida continue to have decent frontal passages and nice cool air advection behind them. Last few EURO and GFS model runs have remained consistent with the blast of cold air funneling down the entire state by Christmas Day. It'll be fun to watch as time moves forward but GFS continuing to show 30's for lows into at least Central Florida (if not further south even). I read this a.m. that the JAX NWS discussion was projecting potential cold temps similar to 2004 for this long-range event. I know this much, I'm going through a good amount of firewood. Thank heaven I found a contact where I can get about 100 pieces of oak for $25! That should be good for another month of cold fronts LOL

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

Anybody know where northjaxpro went? He was last active on Nov 1st.

[boca]

Anybody know where northjaxpro went? He was last active on Nov 1st.

You are correct I hope nothing happened to him because he posts almost everyday I wonder I’d he was suspended.

[psyclone]

I sent north jax a message in mid November but got no reply. I hope he's ok. He's a great poster so hopefully he'll be back. Chilly weather is persistent this month. Acting el nino like. We had an ef-2 tornado in mid pinellas county.. the strongest since 1992 . I'm hoping for a return to warm and dry conditions but that change is not in sight yet.

[NDG]

I sent north jax a message in mid November but got no reply. I hope he's ok. He's a great poster so hopefully he'll be back. Chilly weather is persistent this month. Acting el nino like. We had an ef-2 tornado in mid pinellas county.. the strongest since 1992 . I'm hoping for a return to warm and dry conditions but that change is not in sight yet.

I also hope he's OK, that's very unlike him when the winter wx is active across FL for him not chime in.

Yes, this pattern is very El Ninosh like, definitely not what I was expecting to be so far this meteorological winter. Here in the Orlando area we are on track in having the coldest December since 2010, every December since 2010 has been above or well above average, this is a nice change as long as is not brutally cold like in was in Dec 2010.

[psyclone]

Low 60's for a high on Christmas day...would be the coolest Christmas day in quite some time. The persistent chill absent a freeze threat this month has been impressive. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks continue to tilt cool over the southeast while the 3-4 week and 1 month outlooks are somewhat above. Overall we are really having some nice Florida winter weather and it looks to continue..

[NDG]

Most times it never fails, as we get closer to the models' short to med range they drop such extreme low temps for the FL Peninsula.
GFS and Euro now show lows in the mid 30s across the I-4 corridor, nothing we have not seen so far this meteorological winter.

There is also a big difference between the GFS and Euro on timing of the cold front passage.
GFS shows the front passing through central FL during the day on Christmas Eve while the Euro has it passing after midnight showing a very warm day for the whole FL Peninsula on Christmas Eve.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS temps from 72 hours through 150 hours. The model insists Christmas Day will be cold and also highs don’t even make it out of the 50s for most of the peninsula except far south Southern Florida.

Also note the freeze line dipping south inland West-Central Florida. Will be watching if this is the start of a trend more south which could bring a freeze to near freezing to parts of the Tampa area particularly north and west and also areas north of I-4

[psyclone]

It's not going to freeze in Tampa. It's not going to get close either. It never was. No one believes the GFS because it does this constantly. It is going to get cold. Upper 30's to low 40's is cold. Christmas day is going to be cold by Florida standards and certainly by recent Christmas standards.

[psyclone]

Yet another storm exhibiting very strong rotation is located offshore pinellas county. West central florida gang...keep your head on a swivel this evening in case any of these make it onshore. we just got roasted a few days ago in a similar set up...

[psyclone]

Maybe I tempted fate with my previous comment...the temp estimates keep nudging downward. Probably not a freeze but a cold Christmas and Christmas night. It's been awhile since we've had a sub 60 Christmas day in the bay area but that streak looks to fall...

[NDG]

Last two runs of the Euro are colder for Saturday morning than what the GFS has been showing for the past few runs.
The Euro has upper 30 all the way down to western Dade and Broward Counties, freezing temps down I-75 to eastern Hillsborough and western Polk Counties. Orlando just a couple of degrees above freezing.
The GFS is 5-7 degrees warmer.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Of course it has to get cold right when I am planning a Christmas getaway down in Fort Lauderdale.

[chaser1]

Anybody know where northjaxpro went? He was last active on Nov 1st.

You are correct I hope nothing happened to him because he posts almost everyday I wonder I’d he was suspended.

I noticed his absence too. I certainly don't recall any kind of "flame war" conversation but then again moderators are quick to erase those type of conversations when they exist. I'm less apt to think he was banned and had attributed it to "hurricane season burn-out" which would be understandable. That said, we're in a very different season and facing some very different type of weather then what October & November presented. Hopefully northjaxpro is alright.

As for this extremely progressive winter pattern that has continually affected Florida this entire month, it certainly ain't your Grandma's La Nina. No question that the extreme arctic cold air has thus far remained well north of the U.S. in general but as I see it, the long-wave pattern seems to remain somewhere between the Mississippi Valley and the Atlantic Seaboard. While La Nina would typically want to favor an entirely separate southern tier jet flow across the Southern States, it's saying "I kinda liked this past Hurricane season's Northern Gulf cyclone genesis thing so why not keep with the plot line and for fun we'll just phase it on in with an Eastern CONUS mid-level trough pattern..." No way any of us would've ever bet on Florida having the coldest Christmas Day in years. Heck, a little over two weeks ago I was telling my family to get their bathing suits ready for the holiday. Ask me now how cold middle to late January will be and i'd still probably just laugh. That's just how us Floridians have been trained to think given our recent run of warmish winter season. Throw a moderate La Nina into the mix and one would think the only way us Florida folk would get to feel real cold air would be to either spend time in a Costco produce room, huddle up in our favorite store beer-cave room, or grab a few friends for a Midwest "Covid-cation" car trip. None would be nearly as enjoyable as the awesome weather we've had thus far (especially the latter).