Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

I notice that the forecast drop the Tropical Wave that were supposed to affect the NE Carribean on Monday.Is it a part of the wet pattern that is forecasted?

That is right.Is an interaction between wave and upper trough but the trough looks to have the more influence.

[Gustywind]

I notice that the forecast drop the Tropical Wave that were supposed to affect the NE Carribean on Monday.Is it a part of the wet pattern that is forecasted?

That is right.Is an interaction between wave and upper trough but the trough looks to have the more influence.

Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe due to the proximity and the convective activity of this system. Our Pro Mets said that they reported rainfall values between 80 to 100 millimeters this morning at the Gosier. We should continue to monitor closely the situation in case of as usual.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
857 PM AST SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WAS REPORTED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
AND AROUND UTUADO.THESE SHOWERS PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND
TO DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SKIES OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NOTED DURING
THE EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... EXPECTED
MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ONLY A
FEW EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE
ISLANDS BY EARLY MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SURGE OF MOISTURE TRAILING AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
EXPECT THIS FEATURE AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM PACKAGE AT THIS TIME BUT DID
HOWEVER UPDATE THE WIND AND WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SUN NOV 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY. DEEP CUTOFF
LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DOM REP TUE NIGHT AND TRACK EWD AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW LOCATED OVER THE CARIB COASTAL
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND MON AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. 00Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND
MORE EWD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW FOR EARLY NOV
AND IS SLATED TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING. THE GUIDANCE THE PAST 24-48 HRS HAS BEEN
TRENDING OVERALL WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING RAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WED EVENING. THE 0-6KM
WIND FLOW WILL BE STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING TRAINING
AND REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS IS
LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW FOR MID WEEK
IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT INCREASES AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
MORE OMINOUS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN
ON THURSDAY BUT PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD GUARANTEES THAT
THE WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT SAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE 02/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ AS
ISOLD/SCT TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SW QUADRANT OF PR.
MOSTLY ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 02/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY THROUGH
TUE WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. PULSES OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON
AND PEAK LATE WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WITH LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH SURF ADVZY CONDITIONS ON WED. ALSO...A
TROPICAL WAVE TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TUE-THU WILL KEEP WX
CONDITIONS STORMY OVER THE WATERS WITH SCT-NMRS TSRA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 87 81 / 10 30 70 70
STT 88 81 88 81 / 20 30 60 60

[cycloneye]

Here are the models showing the wet scenarios for this week in NE Caribbean.

GFS



Parallel GFS



GEFS Ensembles



GEM

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 AM AST SUN NOV 2 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LOCAL REGION THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

[cycloneye]

The 12z runs of the models continue to portray a wet scenario for most of this week so stay tuned to all the information that will be posted here.

12z GFS:

48 hours on Tuesday.



72 Hours on Wednesday.



90 hours on Thursday.



120 hours on Friday.



138 hours on Saturday.



12z Parallel GFS.

For Wednesday.



For Friday.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST SUN NOV 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ON
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST OVER HISPANIOLA BY TUESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY MONDAY...EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA ON
TUESDAY AND MEANDER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH
EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD TUESDAY...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA BY MID WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL 02/22Z IN AND AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. TJSJ 02/12 SOUNDING INDICATED AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. PULSES OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PEAK LATE WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE EXPOSED COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 75 85 / 30 70 70 70
STT 77 88 77 87 / 30 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

Maybe what NHC mentions may be part of the wet few days in NE Caribbean so I am posting the TWO here.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the
week near the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas. This system could acquire subtropical
characteristics before it moves northeastward and weakens or merges
with a frontal system toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

The 12z runs of the models continue to portray a wet scenario for most of this week so stay tuned to all the information that will be posted here.

12z GFS:

48 hours on Tuesday.



72 Hours on Wednesday.



90 hours on Thursday.



120 hours on Friday.



138 hours on Saturday.



12z Parallel GFS.

For Wednesday.



For Friday.

Thanks for posting Cycloneye our members and neighbours of the Leewards and NE Leewards will appreciate for sure . Keep us informed our Superman del la casa de boricua azucar azucar!!!

[Gustywind]

Maybe what NHC mentions may be part of the wet few days in NE Caribbean so I am posting the TWO here.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the
week near the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas. This system could acquire subtropical
characteristics before it moves northeastward and weakens or merges
with a frontal system toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

You maybe right on target about that. Let's wait and see if this wet scenario unfolds next week.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1030 PM AST SUN NOV 2 2014

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AXIS NOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT VALUE OF 2.34 INCHES WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW NOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BELOW 50 MILLIBARS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAKENING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROVIDING GOOD
VENTILATION AND AIDING ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS AND NEAR THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING OR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AS IT
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS A LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK AS TUTT LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AND REPOSITION ITSELF ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST MON NOV 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER HISPANIOLA BY WED AND MAINTAIN VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS WILL FALL SHARPLY TODAY THROUGH WED EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WRN ATLC AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER HISPANIONA BY WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EWD AND MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THU NIGHT AND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MUCH OF THIS WEEK
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DETAILS IN CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ARE CHALLENGING/DIFFICULT SO THE NEED TO STAY TUNED NEXT SVRL DAYS
FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS. FOR TODAY...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW MOST ACTIVE WX THIS
MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN BUT STILL WITH SOME CONVECTION OVER SW PR
IN THE AFTERNOON.

THINGS BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ATLC
COASTAL WATERS AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH CONVECTION LIKELY AFFECTING THE ATLC
COASTLINE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. DEEPENING TROF TUE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE DAY WITH MCS FORMATION
LIKELY OVER ALL THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WHICH MAY AFFECT NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST PR AND THE USVI GIVEN SSE STEERING FLOW. ON
WED...GFS INDICATES SFC DIVERGENCE OVR PR SUGGESTING WE WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS
TYPE OF DETAIL CAN BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA WED NIGHT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES ON LEFT SIDE OF 50-KT 250 MB JET
STREAK...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
THE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS. 0-6 KM FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING TRAINING AND REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS WITH SRN PR LIKELY TO BE MOST AFFECTED.
EVEN AS LARGE SCALE FORCING DIMINISHES THU NIGHT AND FRI...MODELS
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE WX CONDITIONS DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH AND VCTS INTO THE MORNING. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE 03/18-22Z IN AND
AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ AS ISOLD/SCT TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SW QUADRANT OF PR. MOSTLY ESE WINDS OF 5-10 KT...BCMG 10-15 KTS
BY LATE MORNING...SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 03/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS OF 6-8 FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED
WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUE THEN DIMINISH WED. VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH NMRS STRONG CONVECTION WITH MCS FORMATION LIKELY TUE
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 81 85 75 / 70 70 70 60
STT 82 81 81 75 / 60 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST MON NOV 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THE ENTIRE
WORK WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BOTH TO OUR
WEST...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2.0
INCHES DURING THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 03/22Z. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. VCSH ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL
REACH THE NORTH FACING BEACHES LATER TODAY...DETERIORATING THE
MARINE CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM AROUND 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENT IS HIGH FOR EXPOSED BEACHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTLINES...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE IN THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 85 75 84 / 70 70 60 60
STT 81 81 75 79 / 60 60 60 60

[msbee]

Meteo.FR has French St Martin on yellow alert for heavy rain and high seas

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[Gustywind]

Meteo.FR has French St Martin on yellow alert for heavy rain and high seas

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

You're right about that and ... be aware Msbee! I wonder if Guadeloupe will not be under an yellow alert tommorow too?! All the Leewards especially the NE should be on their guard.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 AM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-041945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.141104T1800Z-141105T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
344 AM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES AND ALL OF THE OF U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL DEEPEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF
FORCING TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. IN ADDITION...RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE
RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS...AND
RUNOFF FROM THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLOODING AS
RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE SW ATLC WILL
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER HISPANIOLA BY WED AND INDUCE A SFC
TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FALL NEXT 24 HRS AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVR
HISPANIOLA. A SFC TROF OVR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL SHARPEN AND
MOVE WWD TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AREAWIDE. CLUSTERS OF T-STORMS
MAY TRY TO CONGEAL INTO A LARGER MCS TONIGHT. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK FROM THE SOUTH SUGGESTING T-STORMS WILL
MOVE SLOW AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVRL INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RIVERS HAVE BEEN RESPONDING QUICKLY TO
RECENT RAINS AND FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. FOR THESE
REASONS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 8 AM WED. SFC TROF MOVES WEST INTO THE MONA PASSAGE WED
WITH FORCING DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING IN GENERAL
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS BUT AS FORCING WANES
AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH -RA AND VCSH INTO THE MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE 04/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJPS AND
TJMZ AS ISOLD/SCT TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SW QUADRANT
OF PR. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BCMG MOSTLY EASTERLY 10-15
KTS BY LATE MORNING...SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 04/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41046 LOCATED 386 NM NNW OF SJU INDICATES 11 FT
SWELLS AT 15 SECS FROM THE NNW. SWELL DECAY NOMOGRAMS INDICATE
SWELLS UP TO 9FT ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR ATLC WATERS. HAVE RAISED SEAS
TO 7-9 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 72 85 77 / 100 100 50 50
STT 82 80 82 77 / 90 90 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1140 AM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTERACTING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAVE
INCREASED THE RIVER LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.
AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING INCREASING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AS LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO
15 FEET REACH THE AREA. MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH MARINE
CONDITIONS AND BEACH GOERS CAN EXPECT SURF CONDITIONS WITH
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. IN ADDITION...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EXCEPT THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 PM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

PRC059-111-153-041700-
GUAYANILLA PR-PENUELAS PR-YAUCO PR-
1200 PM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

AT 1156 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALLABOA ALTA...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF
PENUELAS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUST
UP OT 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$
CAM/RGH