Texas Spring 2022

[Ntxw]

Tongue-in-cheeks aside, forecasting ahead is always a challenge due to our limitations. But this is actually something that's a better probability than usual for a hot summer. You have a 3rd string Nina growing, a weaker than normal spring rains for large amounts of real estate, already in drought that began over six months before, a severe -PDO that's lasting, SOI that's positive++, and a bone dry Pacific. I mean, what's going to make it rain, wet, and cool? Aside from the random chance the odds are not in favor. It's like getting lemons and saying we'll make orange juice out of it!

We need something major large scale to shake it off be ENSO, a magnificent shift in MJO, a complete flip in the equatorial winds...something. Nothing on the horizon. In fact as large scale patterns slow what we set up now intensifies with little change once the wavelengths increase for summer. We haven't had a truly hot Texas/Oklahoma style summer in a while so it may come to be a bit of a sticker shock if it happens. We've been so blessed with rains and coolish summers since 2015.

[Iceresistance]

Going to be back home Tomorrow, the Observations will return to home location starting tomorrow as well.

[bubba hotep]

Tongue-in-cheeks aside, forecasting ahead is always a challenge due to our limitations. But this is actually something that's a better probability than usual for a hot summer. You have a 3rd string Nina growing, a weaker than normal spring rains for large amounts of real estate, already in drought that began over six months before, a severe -PDO that's lasting, SOI that's positive++, and a bone dry Pacific. I mean, what's going to make it rain, wet, and cool? Aside from the random chance the odds are not in favor. It's like getting lemons and saying we'll make orange juice out of it!

We need something major large scale to shake it off be ENSO, a magnificent shift in MJO, a complete flip in the equatorial winds...something. Nothing on the horizon. In fact as large scale patterns slow what we set up now intensifies with little change once the wavelengths increase for summer. We haven't had a truly hot Texas/Oklahoma style summer in a while so it may come to be a bit of a sticker shock if it happens. We've been so blessed with rains and coolish summers since 2015.

The ENSO head fake back in February really had me thinking we would be getting into a better pattern. However, Nina looks pretty stout now (Spring forecast barrier!) after thoughts of it fading have faded. I've seen some long range guidance indicating near normal rainfall across Texas this summer but after mid-June normal for most areas is pretty slim pickens.

[Ntxw]

Tongue-in-cheeks aside, forecasting ahead is always a challenge due to our limitations. But this is actually something that's a better probability than usual for a hot summer. You have a 3rd string Nina growing, a weaker than normal spring rains for large amounts of real estate, already in drought that began over six months before, a severe -PDO that's lasting, SOI that's positive++, and a bone dry Pacific. I mean, what's going to make it rain, wet, and cool? Aside from the random chance the odds are not in favor. It's like getting lemons and saying we'll make orange juice out of it!

We need something major large scale to shake it off be ENSO, a magnificent shift in MJO, a complete flip in the equatorial winds...something. Nothing on the horizon. In fact as large scale patterns slow what we set up now intensifies with little change once the wavelengths increase for summer. We haven't had a truly hot Texas/Oklahoma style summer in a while so it may come to be a bit of a sticker shock if it happens. We've been so blessed with rains and coolish summers since 2015.

The ENSO head fake back in February really had me thinking we would be getting into a better pattern. However, Nina looks pretty stout now (Spring forecast barrier!) after thoughts of it fading have faded. I've seen some long range guidance indicating near normal rainfall across Texas this summer but after mid-June normal for most areas is pretty slim pickens.

I thought so too with the great MJO passage we had late winter. But it's pretty clear now the huge SOI rise and persistence told us in April Nina is going to strengthen. Wouldn't be crazy to think moderate or strong Nina if the trades increase.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro weeklies keep the hot and dry pattern going through June. I'm afraid this summer will be similar to 2011. Like Ntxw said, it will take a major shift in the pattern to prevent it, and all signs point to that not happening this summer. Oh well. Wake me up when September ends.

[Iceresistance]

Daily SOI is over 40, my goodness.

[Cpv17]

Daily SOI is over 40, my goodness.

That’s freaking nuts. Bye bye rain and hello 2011 redux. I’ve only gotten 6” of rain so far this year. This sucks.

[Iceresistance]

this is really really bad . . .


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/This-is-bad-.-.-Really-bad.png

Only a Tropical Cyclone may be able to stop this.

[rwfromkansas]

Any hope of neutral this winter? If La Niña, drought could be historic.

[Ntxw]

this is really really bad . . .

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/This-is-bad-.-.-Really-bad.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/This-is-bad-.-.-Really-bad.png

Only a Tropical Cyclone may be able to stop this.

You may be right. Don't wish bad on anyone, but a weak cyclone gradually moving through from the Atlantic seems like the only decent short term reprieve.

[Ntxw]

Any hope of neutral this winter? If La Niña, drought could be historic.

Odds of moderate or strong Nina is higher than neutral. The weeklies are currently now at moderate levels, one of the biggest Nina readings for May.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Hermit Peak Fire in NM is just 5 miles south of my family's place and winds turn southerly today. The fire has burned over 200,000 acres so far and has been burning for a month already. This is a very dry time of year in those mountains. The monsoon normally starts in the second week of July so a long time for this to burn if the winds keep up.

https://nifc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webap ... 26ea2bee4f

[Iceresistance]

this is really really bad . . .

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/This-is-bad-.-.-Really-bad.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/This-is-bad-.-.-Really-bad.png

Only a Tropical Cyclone may be able to stop this.

You may be right. Don't wish bad on anyone, but a weak cyclone gradually moving through from the Atlantic seems like the only decent short term reprieve.

I would like a weak system that will trigger convective feedback in our favor.

[cheezyWXguy]

this is really really bad . . .

https://s8.gifyu.com/images/This-is-bad-.-.-Really-bad.png
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/This-is-bad-.-.-Really-bad.png

Only a Tropical Cyclone may be able to stop this.

You may be right. Don't wish bad on anyone, but a weak cyclone gradually moving through from the Atlantic seems like the only decent short term reprieve.

I would like a weak system that will trigger convective feedback in our favor.

At this point I’ll settle for a few days of northwest flow

[bubba hotep]

There are signs that CAG season will be kicking off soon and it's always possible that a system or just a broad area of disturbed weather gets lifted north into Texas. However, the GFS is pretty active in the longer range with a decent front after D10 and numerous chances for rain.



I mean, if it was winter I would be pretty interested in what happens beyond this D10 Euro.

[Iceresistance]

I'm in Texas!

[Iceresistance]

Even though that the Cockroach Death Ridge is not directly overhead us, it's sadly in the perfect position over the Midwest, sucking in the dry air from the drought-stricken Southwest. Which basically shuts off any good rainfall chances for the long term.

It's also not moving and getting stronger.

[captainbarbossa19]

It's hot this week, but in SE Texas, I do not see any real extreme temperatures on the way. Thursday looks to be the hottest for the next 10 days. It might get up to 94 or 95, but after that, I am not sure what the CPC is seeing for my area.

On another note, I have a question for those who are familiar with Texas climatology. How many years featured above-average May temperatures that resulted in excessively hot and dry summers for the majority of the state?

[South Texas Storms]

End of today's 12z Euro run looks promising. Deep trough building into the Plains with a cold front approaching north Texas at day 10. Likely would push offshore and bring a round of rain to much of the state late next week.

It's pretty far out so low confidence but hopefully an end to the hot/dry stagnant pattern we are in won't last too much longer.

[Brent]

This is horrible only got to 77 this morning which appears to be tied for the warmest May low on record

I really really hope this is not a sign of summer but I'm not very hopeful